[美國大選] 佛羅里達州早期投票首日，民主黨暫微幅領先

咁有d 地方無得早親身去投既

我本身都係中間偏左
但有邏輯同理智既人都知道民主黨同左派痴晒線
權衡之下會覺得trump 好d
如果有得揀我直情想彭斯，蓬佩奧上任

上屆55%, 合資格可登記選民2.5億人中1.38億人投
就算多10%到65%，多1000萬人到2.6億，都只係到1.7億，所以投票日要超過一半難啲，依家講緊8000萬以上人已經投票

其實我唔覺得民調全部老作

有數據
好明顯
東西二岸幾乎全藍

唔係東西二岸
例如南邊沿海既，都係一個地區既頭1，2/1，2，3城市既人vs其他地方住既人

住大城市/發達地區既人支持全球化
相反其他既就保護主義


完全係二種勢力對抗

好多美國人都知China joe衰野
但佢地更加睇重自己利益
China joe衰野可能只係影響2-5%既支持者

美國好似變成

有錢+中產vs窮人

全球化攪到最多窮人生活好慘
但大企業大媒體都係受益者，所以佢地只係報導佢地鍾意既野

先出現2016侵既上台

今次都係呢種對決

我自己唔信全部作數
但肯定sampling的時候有問題

唔使作, methodology 有問題個結果已經...

Some toss up states have far more half people already voted. For example,
Florida:
Total Voted: 7,385,667
Total Voted as Percentage of Registered Voters: 52.5%
Furthermore, the above numbers are a bit out date that the % will be even higher now.

Some people estimated that as high as 65% registered voters will vote this year nationally.

其實到呢一刻

只能話55

重點係點爭取3-5%既中間派人仕

大部份已經歸邊
反而我想知未決定既有幾多%

好緊張

Nevada

Nevada's early voting electorate is trending younger compared to the last week. Eleven percent of voters so far are under 30; last week it was only 9%. Voters 65 or older have gone from 40% of early voters last week to 35% now.
About two-thirds of Nevada's pre-election ballots come from White voters, which is a small decrease from 70% four years ago. Hispanic voters make up the second largest share of those ballots at 13%, a slight uptick from in 2016. Black voters and Asian voters have also seen one-percentage-point increases in their shares of the early vote.

Republicans are narrowing the Democratic advantage in the pre-election vote. Last week, Democrats led Republicans by 12 points. As more ballots have been returned in the vote-by-mail state, the 42% of ballots cast by Democrats is now only seven points higher than Republicans' 35%.

一個影響未來至少 20 年世界格局既選舉，中共可否帶領中国灣道超車美帝，靠民主黨了

民主黨叫人郵寄，侵陣營都叫人早啲親身去投，所以就催票催到好勁

又未必真係完全關民調機構事(XiNN果啲都一定係亂9咁嚟), 都有可能係因為shy voter實在太多, 呢度有個有趣例子, USC DORNSIFE(南加州文理學院)做過一個民調, 問3類問題:

(1) 問傳統問題(e.g. 你支持邊個?), 結果 Biden:Trump=54:42
(2) 問受訪者覺得佢地啲social contact支持邊個? , 結果 Biden:Trump=50:45
(3) 問受訪者覺得州份入面其他人支持邊個? , 結果 Biden:Trump=47:46

https://election.usc.edu/
(揀all graph)

同一個機構做都可以有咁大分別, shy voter絕對係一個唔可以忽視嘅因素

點解呢個post大家仲可以咁淡定............賓州落後成咁 點追.......

其實美國而家好似馬克思講咁階級鬥爭

中產+有錢vs 窮人
大城市vs大城市
東西vs內陸
科技金融互聯網vs工業能源傳統產業
全球化vs保護主義

nba總數有幾多人

你一定係E幾個月先上連登
連登係由藍轉紅 你自己睇下4年前D POST先講野

因為睇唔到全數, 得mail in同大城市

得我覺得trump好危?
落後咁多唔明你地點解可以咁樂觀

Follower 30M

點樣落後咁多同講緊邊個州先

China joe
無得唔反