【無了期唔知幾時完嘅武漢肺炎】國際疫情討論區09

India must surpass 400,000 cases next week.

They are expecting that India will keep on worsening until at least mid May.

印度嘅數字已經唔係反映緊疫情，係佢地一日檢測到幾多。

Update

Worldometer has updated the daily new cases on 23 April to 903,352!

The world has surpassed 900,000 daily new cases!

測唔晒先三十幾萬 印度跟本唔會完了

講得啱，其實根本唔知個變種武肺嘅真實力

386,888 new cases (new world record) and 3,501 new deaths in India

Brazil: +3,074 deaths, 401,417 total deaths

Surpass 400,000 deaths.

How many new cases in Brazil?

新型コロナウイルスのモデルナ社製のワクチンが、30日午前、関西空港に到着した。

アメリカ・モデルナ社製の新型コロナウイルスのワクチンを積んだ航空機が、午前9時ごろ、ベルギーのブリュッセルから関西空港に到着した。

今回は、コンテナ6個分のワクチンが輸送された。

モデルナ社製のワクチンは、長期保存するにはマイナス20度前後で保管する必要があり、国内の流通は武田薬品工業が担当する。

近く、国内での臨床試験データが提出され、5月中には承認される見通し。

田村厚労相「なるべく早く、（ワクチン）特例承認の申請が来ているので、審査をして判断していきたい。承認されれば、供給されたものから、すぐに接種の態勢に入っていく」

政府は、9月までに5,000万回分の契約を締結していて、5月24日に東京と大阪に設置されるワクチンの大規模接種センターで使用される予定。

こうした中、モデルナは29日、ワクチンの保存について、セ氏2度から8度の状態で、これまでの1カ月よりも長い、3カ月間保存できるとのデータが得られたと発表した。

また、2021年の生産量を30億回分に引き上げ、世界の感染者が1億5,000万人を超える中、需要に対応するとしている。

source: FNNプライムオンライン

Note: 1 人嘅注射量係 0.5 mL；1 小玻璃瓶就夠 10 個人打

其實第日全世界病唔死同打完針唔死嘅人通行翻，就到香港台灣完全冇抗體嘅人中哂

打左針未先?

而家就係香港台灣都唔打又唔感染, 即係全世界我我地冇抗體

+69,079 new cases

希望支那無得打美國針就可能會滅國

The vaccine will force the virus to mutate faster. Vaccine is just a helpful.
The main problem is that all the vaccines have not yet approved. They are just authorized for emergency use.

In countries where deaf bodies are all over the place, they have to bet on the safety of the vaccines. In Hong Kong nad Taiwan, we should not take the vaccine because our risk to get killed by Wuhan virus is too low. and is lower than the risk of taking teh vaccine.

The governments in Hong Kong and Taiwan are bad guys because they know very well that the vaccines have not been approved.

If the vaccines have been proved to be safe, then they will be approved. Right now, no one is crazy enough to approve any of these vaccines because the vaccines are no where near that stage medically and scientfically.

Anyone says that the vaccine is safe is lying. Right now, we still do not know enough about the vaccines.

One day in the future, I will take the vaccine when the vaccines have been approved.

I have told all people I know that they should really think about the risks of taking and not taking the vaccines.

I am responsible and the government is not.

【變種病毒】無源頭變種病毒出現 疑染南非病毒 傳播力高1.5倍

本港出現首宗無源頭變種病毒感染個案，個案是一名居於東涌的外傭，假日會到青衣聖多默宗徒堂出席詩班。許樹昌今早出席電台節目訪問時，估計外傭很可能感染南非變種病毒，傳播力相對高出1.5倍。因此若變種病毒急升，意味本港將現第5波疫情。

而有外傭中介指出，在港工作時間較長的外傭，由於已習慣假日與朋友見面，部份多人聚集、在街上搭起帳篷，不排除有外傭聚會時除下口罩，增加傳染風險。

消息來源： 香港商業電台

402,110 new cases (new world record) and 3,522 new deaths in India

India has surpassed 400,000 daily new cases.

Part of my long email on the vaccine

Whether taking the COVID-19 vaccine is a risk management question. I would consider these issues when I consider whether I will take the vaccine:

1. The side effects of the vaccines. I want to remind people that none of the vaccines have been approved by any health organization in any country. All the available vaccines have been authorized for emergency use only. This means that the safety of the vaccines has not fully established. In particularly, the long term side effects of all these vaccines are unknown. Since so many people have been killing by COVID-19, the emergency use of these vaccines should be used to save the high risk people (partially as a gamble and partially supported by the results of vaccine trials).

Hence, the key consideration is whether you are high risk enough to become very sick so that you are better to gamble on the safety of the vaccine.

Under various pressures from political interests and business owners, the health experts and governments in almost all countries recommend most people to take COVID-19 vaccines or even force people to take the vaccine. The main point is that none of the vaccines has been approved for general use and we should NOT yet apply these vaccines to the general public. A good discussion of this issue is https://us.yahoo.com/news/fda-didnt-approve-pfizers-covid-130011430.html.

Therefore, all the governments and the health experts are lying and they have bypassed the scientific approval procedure: Asking most people to take the vaccine is effectively approved the vaccines for general public. European, American (both north and south) and some Middle East countries have handled the pandemic so badly that they hope they can vaccine out the crisis. Anyway, they are simply irresponsible and are gambling. Furthermore, as the authorities want more people to take vaccines, they begin to play down the side effects. Summing up, I am questioning the honesty of the authorities because the authorities all over the world appear to be lying and they have bypassed the scientific approval procedure.
......
3. The chance one will be infected. Actually, I do NOT recommend ANY Hongkongers to take any COVID-19 vaccines because we have very few cases. The chance of getting infected in Hong Kong is so low that it does not worth to take the risk of taking vaccines that are only authorized for emergency use. For those multi-generation American families of five that are living in a 60 square feet small rooms in San Francisco or Los Angeles, their chance of getting infected is so high and it is so easy to pass the virus to their older family members that I recommend that they should take the vaccines as soon as they can. Although some families in Hong Kong are still living in a 60 square feet small rooms, they are no longer share the toilet/bath room with other families after the SARS pandemic in 2003. Furthermore, Hong Kong has so few COVID-19 cases that Hongkongers should definitely not take vaccines in near future.
......
Summing up, do not take vaccines which has authorized for emergency use blindly. You need to ask yourself your living style (stay at home most of the time or going out to the pubs frequently), your environment, your health status, the infection rate in your region, and which vaccine you will take.

One last word, do not read the anti-vaccine essays because the essays have no substances. This email is NOT anti-vaccine and I just points out the governments around the world have bypassed the scientific approval procedure and have recommended COVID-19 vaccines to the general public while those vaccines have only authorized scientifically for emergency use.

You do not need to worry about whether taking vaccines or not. You are one of my best friends and I will tell you to take vaccines when the time comes. If Hong Kong has 1,000 daily new cases, then you should get the vaccines immediately. The followings are what I told you on the phone last evening.

1. The vaccines are so new that even the prescriptions have not be optimized. This is particularly true for the two leading vaccines, BioNtech (which is mainly German technology) and Moderna (which is American technology and it is NOT available in Hong Kong). Both these two are based on the new kind of technology mRNA and mRNA is likely to a breakthrough in the creating vaccines. Therefore, both the amount of vaccine should be used and the period between the first and second doses have not been optimized. For examples,
a. A good news about Moderna is to use only half the amount currently used. (see the details on, for example, https://ca.yahoo.com/news/moderna-study-suggests-half-doses-090000296.html). If this is proved to be correct. then the Americans can be injected only half doses which can reduce a lot of side effects.
b. Pfizer has submitted new data to American FDA applying for the permission of storing the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine at much higher temperatures. Recalled that both Moderna and BioNtech vaccines need to be stored at ultra-low temperatures. I raise a question that Pfizer still store the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine at ultra low temperatures (which can be done in modern developed countries) but reduces substances used to stabilized the vaccine. Some of the side effects of the Moderna and the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccines arises from allergy to these substances. Therefore, the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine can have fewer side effects.
Therefore, you may have advantages by taking the same vaccine later provided that you are not in high risk of getting infected. Even for some other vaccines, fine-tuning the prescriptions may also benefit to people.

2. We do not know exactly how long the vaccines can protect us. Now, we tend to think about this is about 6 months. So, we are not only taking the vaccine to protect for now, we need a vaccine that can protect us from the new variants of virus that may become popular in the next few months. For example, the BioNtech vaccine have around 60% efficacy (dropped from 94%) against the South Africa variant. The Chinese vaccines provide no actual data of the efficacy against the South Africa variant and I am almost sure that they have less than 50% efficacy. This is because the Chinese vaccines have just above 50% against the original strain of the COVID-19 virus (e.g. the Sinovac has 50.66% efficacy). The British AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine is the third vaccine authorized for the emergency use by WHO, however, it is almost useless against the South Africa variant (about 25% efficacy. It is as low as 10% in one of the study). A bit earlier, 90% of COVID-19 cases in South Africa are due to the South Africa variant and South Africa is no longer using the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine. Therefore, the vaccine we should take may not be those available to us right now. For example, the vaccine we should take may be a modified version of the BioNtech vaccine that is under development and it may a much higher efficacy against the South Africa variant.

Summing up, Hong Kong has so few COVID-19 cases that we are not in high-risk and we can wait a bit longer. When the time comes, I will get the injection immediately.

New World Record
Worldometer has updated the data so that we have a new world record:
904,626 new cases on 29 April.

　政府は、米バイオ企業モデルナ製の新型コロナウイルスワクチンの製造販売について、５月２１日にも承認する方向で調整に入った。認められれば、米製薬大手ファイザーのワクチンに続き、２例目となる。

　国内の臨床試験や流通を担当する武田薬品工業が、３月に厚生労働省に承認を申請していた。政府は医薬品の審査期間を短縮する「特例承認」を適用する。先行審査していた海外の臨床試験データに、国内の臨床試験データを加えて最終的に判断する。

　承認後は有識者会議を開き、感染症のまん延を防ぐために緊急的に行う臨時接種と位置づける。接種は国民の努力義務となる。

　接種間隔はファイザー製の３週間に対し、モデルナ製は４週間で、対象年齢は１８歳以上だ。モデルナ製の保管温度は氷点下約２０度で、超低温冷凍庫は不要。

モデルナ製のワクチンについて、政府は２５００万人分の供給（計５０００万回）を受ける契約を結んでいる。６月までに２０００万人分が、７～９月に５００万人分が供給される予定になっている。

政府はワクチン接種を迅速化するため、自衛隊の医官や看護官を活用して５月２４日から東京と大阪に大規模な集団接種会場を開設する。会場では、米モデルナ製を使用する方針だ。１日１万人規模の接種を目指しており、約３６００万人の高齢者の接種を７月末までに終えたい考えだ。

source: 読売新聞オンライン

Thanks for keep on posting the news from Japan so that I can concentrate on other countries.

Please keep reporting!