5001 回覆
47 Like 7 Dislike
2021-08-31 11:58:12
50 new cases in New Zealand

The 7-day moving average is still going up since the number of new cases has dropped only for 2 days. However, the 3-say moving average has come down. It is not clear that whether New Zealand has the Sunday/Monday effect, I do not know whether I should believe the 7-day moving average or the 3-day moving average.

Since Zealand has done it the hard way by lockdown the whole country just because of one single local case, the effect of lockdown has just started to show. I conclude that the 7-day moving average responses too slow for this latest fast change and

New Zealand is improving because of the lockdown.
2021-08-31 12:04:44
119,642 new cases and 569 new deaths in the United States

This set of data is from Worldometers. Due to a recent change in handling the data, the data from United States has been reported very late so that this is NOT the final data for Aug 30, 2021.

Furthermore, Worldometers has reported far too few deaths in Florida. I am considering to switch to other websites for reporting the data from USA.

I will remain to use the data from Worldometers for other countries (except Spain).
2021-08-31 12:41:59
1,244 new cases and 4 new deaths in Australia

Still worsening rapidly.
2021-08-31 16:44:30



指揮中心表示,今日新增之3例本土病例(均非居家隔離期間陽性者),為2例男性、1例女性,年齡介於30多歲至60多歲,其中1例於今(2021)年 8月16日發病,另2例於8月30日發病。個案分布為新北市2例、台北市1例;其中2例關聯不明,1例疫調中,將持續進行疫情調查,以釐清感染源。




2021-08-31 17:00:40


Hong Kong has 2 import cases.
2021-08-31 17:11:19


2021-08-31 17:29:10


2021-08-31 18:53:58
一解封咪又爆過 晒9 氣
2021-08-31 18:55:30
14,666 new cases and 190 new deaths in Thailand

Thailand has made siginifcant improvement so that its government has relaxed some restrictions.
2021-08-31 19:12:19
161 new cases in Singapore

Keep worsening
2021-08-31 19:47:23
Do you feel better today?
2021-08-31 19:49:01
Yes 不過隻手仲有少少痛
2021-08-31 19:53:59
It is good to know you are all right. I was worrying because you had a full body pain. Pain at the injection site is common and you do not need to worry.
2021-08-31 22:21:57
好過尋日都worsening ?
2021-08-31 22:52:16
Day to day data subjects to fluctuations and other influence factors. The better method is to use 7-day moving average to determine whether it is worsening or improving.

The following is the curve of 7-day moving average (up to yesterday)

You have to draw the 7-day moving average (up to today) in order to understand why I said "Still worsening rapidly".

Note that although I may be the first person to teach the world to use the 7-day moving average because of the Sunday/Monday effect (Fewer tests are carried out on Saturday and Sunday). Some countries, such as Russia, does not have Sunday/Monday effect, so it is better to use the 3-day moving average to study these countries.

Notice also that the 7-day moving average cannot handle the week in which there are extra holiday.
2021-08-31 23:29:32
2021-09-01 09:12:01
Actually, I have explained this issue 2 moths ago. Please read comments 2373, 2374, 2384, 2416
2021-09-01 09:24:50




2021-09-01 09:44:37

Florida changed its COVID-19 data, creating an ‘artificial decline’ in recent deaths

As the delta variant spreads through Florida, data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest this could be the most serious and deadly surge in COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.

On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 “new deaths” per day over the previous seven days.

The dramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print. Until three weeks ago, data collected by DOH and published on the CDC website counted deaths by the date they were recorded — a common method for producing daily stats used by most states. On Aug. 10, Florida switched its methodology and, along with just a handful of other states, began to tally new deaths by the date the person died.

If you chart deaths by Florida’s new method, based on date of death, it will generally appear — even during a spike like the present — that deaths are on a recent downslope. That’s because it takes time for deaths to be evaluated and death certificates processed. When those deaths finally are tallied, they are assigned to the actual date of death — creating a spike where there once existed a downslope and moving the downslope forward in time.

Shivani Patel, a social epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emory University called the move “extremely problematic,” especially since it came without warning or explanation during a rise in cases.

Patel said Florida death data now show an “artificial decline” in recent deaths and without an explanation or context, and “it would look like we are doing better than we are.”

The change came the day after the state health department’s official Twitter account posted a series of late-night tweets accusing the CDC of publishing incorrect numbers, but offering little explanation.

“As a result of data discrepancies that have occurred, this week, FDOH worked quickly and efficiently with CDC to ensure accurate display of data on their website the same day,” DOH spokesperson Weesam Khoury told the Herald in a statement at the time. “To proactively ensure accurate data is consistently displayed, the Department will begin daily submission of a complete renewed set of case data to CDC, including retrospective COVID-19 cases.”

Long essay, read more at https://us.yahoo.com/news/florida-changed-covid-19-data-141255528.html
2021-09-01 11:56:29
76 new cases in New Zealand
The 7-day moving average is going up further, but the 3-day moving average is going down further.
It seems that New Zealand has a very strong Sunday/Monday effect so that there were much fewer cases reported on 30 Aug and 31 Aug. Since New Zealand has contained the virus so well in the past that it offered too few data for us to study its Sunday/monday effect, we need more time to really know the trend in New Zealand.
2021-09-01 16:41:12







2021-09-01 16:44:21

新變種Mu恐有免疫逃脫特性 WHO監控

世界衛生組織(WHO)8月31日在每周例行疫情公告中指出,被稱為Mu的B.1.621是所謂「需留意變異株」(variant of interest),1月間首度在哥倫比亞發現,具有對疫苗具抗藥性風險的變異。世衛組織表示,「Mu變種有一系列的變異,顯示可能具有免疫逃脫特性」,但仍須進一步研究,才能對Mu有更多了解。



世衛組織目前辨識出4種新冠肺炎高關注變異株(Variants of Concern, VOC),包括目前在193個國家現蹤的Alpha,以及在170國出現的Delta。另有包括Mu在內的5個變種需要監控。

2021-09-01 16:55:09


2021-09-01 16:56:09


2021-09-01 17:02:11

澳洲新州增1116宗確診 維州再多逾百人染病


吹水台自選台熱 門最 新手機台時事台政事台World體育台娛樂台動漫台Apps台遊戲台影視台講故台健康台感情台家庭台潮流台美容台上班台財經台房屋台飲食台旅遊台學術台校園台汽車台音樂台創意台硬件台電器台攝影台玩具台寵物台軟件台活動台電訊台直播台站務台黑 洞