【無了期唔知幾時完嘅武漢肺炎】國際疫情討論區09

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2021-08-31 11:58:12
50 new cases in New Zealand

The 7-day moving average is still going up since the number of new cases has dropped only for 2 days. However, the 3-say moving average has come down. It is not clear that whether New Zealand has the Sunday/Monday effect, I do not know whether I should believe the 7-day moving average or the 3-day moving average.

Since Zealand has done it the hard way by lockdown the whole country just because of one single local case, the effect of lockdown has just started to show. I conclude that the 7-day moving average responses too slow for this latest fast change and

New Zealand is improving because of the lockdown.
2021-08-31 12:04:44
119,642 new cases and 569 new deaths in the United States

This set of data is from Worldometers. Due to a recent change in handling the data, the data from United States has been reported very late so that this is NOT the final data for Aug 30, 2021.

Furthermore, Worldometers has reported far too few deaths in Florida. I am considering to switch to other websites for reporting the data from USA.

I will remain to use the data from Worldometers for other countries (except Spain).
2021-08-31 12:41:59
1,244 new cases and 4 new deaths in Australia

Still worsening rapidly.
2021-08-31 16:44:30

新增4例COVID-19確定病例,分別為3例本土及1例境外移入



中央流行疫情指揮中心今(31)日公布國內新增4例COVID-19確定病例,分別為3例本土及1例境外移入;另確診個案中新增1例死亡。

指揮中心表示,今日新增之3例本土病例(均非居家隔離期間陽性者),為2例男性、1例女性,年齡介於30多歲至60多歲,其中1例於今(2021)年 8月16日發病,另2例於8月30日發病。個案分布為新北市2例、台北市1例;其中2例關聯不明,1例疫調中,將持續進行疫情調查,以釐清感染源。

指揮中心說明,今日新增1例死亡個案(案16093),為本國籍60多歲男性,8月8日於越南確診,8月28日搭乘醫療專機返臺後至醫院採檢並治療,8月29日確診,8月30日死亡。

指揮中心指出,近期確診個案解隔離情形,5月11日至8月29日累計公布14,784位確診個案中,已有13,676人解除隔離,解隔離人數達確診人數92.5%。

指揮中心表示,今日新增1例境外移入個案(案16105),為英國籍30多歲男性,未接種COVID-19疫苗,自述6月曾於英國確診,8月17日持搭機前三日內檢驗陰性報告來臺工作,入境後至集中檢疫所採檢陰性並檢疫,8月30日進行期滿前採檢,於今日確診。個案在臺期間並無症狀,集中檢疫期間無接觸他人,故無匡列接觸者。

指揮中心統計,截至目前國內累計2,677,839例新型冠狀病毒肺炎相關通報(含2,660,833例排除),其中15,995例確診,分別為1,414例境外移入,14,528例本土病例,36例敦睦艦隊、2例航空器感染、1例不明及14例調查中;另累計110例移除為空號。2020年起累計835例COVID-19死亡病例,其中825例本土,個案居住縣市分布為新北市410例、臺北市315例、基隆市28例、桃園市26例、彰化縣15例、新竹縣13例、臺中市5例、苗栗縣3例、宜蘭縣及花蓮縣各2例,臺東縣、雲林縣、臺南市、南投縣、高雄市及屏東縣各1例;另10例為境外移入。
2021-08-31 17:00:40

831



Hong Kong has 2 import cases.
2021-08-31 17:11:19

由Delta株變異而來的「東京株」登場



https://lihkg.com/thread/2682233/page/1
2021-08-31 17:29:10

台灣高端新冠疫苗累計有六宗接種後死亡個案



https://lihkg.com/thread/2681096/page/1
2021-08-31 18:53:58
一解封咪又爆過 晒9 氣
2021-08-31 18:55:30
14,666 new cases and 190 new deaths in Thailand

Thailand has made siginifcant improvement so that its government has relaxed some restrictions.
2021-08-31 19:12:19
161 new cases in Singapore

Keep worsening
2021-08-31 19:47:23
Do you feel better today?
2021-08-31 19:49:01
Yes 不過隻手仲有少少痛
2021-08-31 19:53:59
It is good to know you are all right. I was worrying because you had a full body pain. Pain at the injection site is common and you do not need to worry.
2021-08-31 22:21:57
好過尋日都worsening ?
2021-08-31 22:52:16
Day to day data subjects to fluctuations and other influence factors. The better method is to use 7-day moving average to determine whether it is worsening or improving.

The following is the curve of 7-day moving average (up to yesterday)

You have to draw the 7-day moving average (up to today) in order to understand why I said "Still worsening rapidly".

Note that although I may be the first person to teach the world to use the 7-day moving average because of the Sunday/Monday effect (Fewer tests are carried out on Saturday and Sunday). Some countries, such as Russia, does not have Sunday/Monday effect, so it is better to use the 3-day moving average to study these countries.

Notice also that the 7-day moving average cannot handle the week in which there are extra holiday.
2021-08-31 23:29:32
Okay
2021-09-01 09:12:01
Actually, I have explained this issue 2 moths ago. Please read comments 2373, 2374, 2384, 2416
2021-09-01 09:24:50

全日本需呼吸機或深切治療的重症新冠患者數目續創新高



日本單日新增1萬7713宗新型肺炎確診個案,東京都佔2909宗,較上星期下跌1300多宗,數字連續第9日,比一星期前減少。

全日本需要使用呼吸機或在深切治療病房治療的重症患者數目達到2110人,連續19天創新高。

另外,東京奧組委宣布,新增16宗與東京殘奧會相關的確診病例,其中2人是運動員,累計264名東京殘奧相關人士染疫。
2021-09-01 09:44:37

Florida changed its COVID-19 data, creating an ‘artificial decline’ in recent deaths



As the delta variant spreads through Florida, data published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention suggest this could be the most serious and deadly surge in COVID-19 infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

As cases ballooned in August, however, the Florida Department of Health changed the way it reported death data to the CDC, giving the appearance of a pandemic in decline, an analysis of Florida data by the Miami Herald and el Nuevo Herald found.

On Monday, Florida death data would have shown an average of 262 daily deaths reported to the CDC over the previous week had the health department used its former reporting system, the Herald analysis showed. Instead, the Monday update from Florida showed just 46 “new deaths” per day over the previous seven days.

The dramatic difference is due to a small change in the fine print. Until three weeks ago, data collected by DOH and published on the CDC website counted deaths by the date they were recorded — a common method for producing daily stats used by most states. On Aug. 10, Florida switched its methodology and, along with just a handful of other states, began to tally new deaths by the date the person died.

If you chart deaths by Florida’s new method, based on date of death, it will generally appear — even during a spike like the present — that deaths are on a recent downslope. That’s because it takes time for deaths to be evaluated and death certificates processed. When those deaths finally are tallied, they are assigned to the actual date of death — creating a spike where there once existed a downslope and moving the downslope forward in time.

Shivani Patel, a social epidemiologist and assistant professor at Emory University called the move “extremely problematic,” especially since it came without warning or explanation during a rise in cases.

Patel said Florida death data now show an “artificial decline” in recent deaths and without an explanation or context, and “it would look like we are doing better than we are.”

The change came the day after the state health department’s official Twitter account posted a series of late-night tweets accusing the CDC of publishing incorrect numbers, but offering little explanation.

“As a result of data discrepancies that have occurred, this week, FDOH worked quickly and efficiently with CDC to ensure accurate display of data on their website the same day,” DOH spokesperson Weesam Khoury told the Herald in a statement at the time. “To proactively ensure accurate data is consistently displayed, the Department will begin daily submission of a complete renewed set of case data to CDC, including retrospective COVID-19 cases.”

Long essay, read more at https://us.yahoo.com/news/florida-changed-covid-19-data-141255528.html
2021-09-01 11:56:29
76 new cases in New Zealand
The 7-day moving average is going up further, but the 3-day moving average is going down further.
It seems that New Zealand has a very strong Sunday/Monday effect so that there were much fewer cases reported on 30 Aug and 31 Aug. Since New Zealand has contained the virus so well in the past that it offered too few data for us to study its Sunday/monday effect, we need more time to really know the trend in New Zealand.
2021-09-01 16:41:12

新增6例COVID-19確定病例,分別為1例本土及5例境外移入



中央流行疫情指揮中心今(1)日公布國內新增6例COVID-19確定病例,分別為1例本土及5例境外移入;另確診個案中新增1例死亡。

指揮中心表示,今日新增之1例本土病例(案16110),為60多歲女性,因曾接觸其他確診個案,由衛生單位安排居家隔離,8月23日出現流鼻水、喉嚨癢等症狀,因症狀輕微未就醫;8月31日進行解隔離前採檢,於今日確診(Ct值24)。個案隔離期間無接觸他人,故無匡列接觸者。

指揮中心說明,今日新增1例死亡個案(案9686),為60多歲男性,有慢性病史及其他確診個案接觸史,5月30日出現呼吸困難、咳嗽、發燒等症狀,當日就醫採檢並住院治療,6月3日確診,8月30日死亡。

指揮中心指出,近期確診個案解隔離情形,5月11日至8月30日累計公布14,792位確診個案中,已有13,692人解除隔離,解隔離人數達確診人數92.6%。

指揮中心表示,今日新增5例境外移入個案,分別自阿拉伯聯合大公國(案16106、案16107)、奈及利亞(案16108)、尼加拉瓜(案16109)、美國(案16111)入境,入境日介於7月2日至8月30日;詳如新聞稿附件。

指揮中心統計,截至目前國內累計2,707,449例新型冠狀病毒肺炎相關通報(含2,690,627例排除),其中16,001例確診,分別為1,420例境外移入(原1例本土病例案16087,其8月30日血清抗體檢驗結果顯示為非近期感染,改判為美國境外移入),14,528例本土病例,36例敦睦艦隊、2例航空器感染、1例不明及14例調查中;另累計110例移除為空號。2020年起累計累計836例COVID-19死亡病例,其中826例本土,個案居住縣市分布為新北市410例、臺北市316例、基隆市28例、桃園市26例、彰化縣15例、新竹縣13例、臺中市5例、苗栗縣3例、宜蘭縣及花蓮縣各2例,臺東縣、雲林縣、臺南市、南投縣、高雄市及屏東縣各1例;另10例為境外移入。
2021-09-01 16:44:21

新變種Mu恐有免疫逃脫特性 WHO監控



世界衛生組織(WHO)8月31日在每周例行疫情公告中指出,被稱為Mu的B.1.621是所謂「需留意變異株」(variant of interest),1月間首度在哥倫比亞發現,具有對疫苗具抗藥性風險的變異。世衛組織表示,「Mu變種有一系列的變異,顯示可能具有免疫逃脫特性」,但仍須進一步研究,才能對Mu有更多了解。

各界普遍擔心新變種病毒出現,因為在具高度傳染力的Delta變種病毒(原稱印度變種病毒)強勢肆虐之後,全球傳染率再度升高,未接種疫苗者以及防疫措施放寬的地區傳染率特別高。

包括造成新冠肺炎的新型冠狀病毒SARS-CoV-2在內,所有病毒都會隨時間變異,大部分變異對病毒特性影響微乎其微、甚至根本不會有影響,但特定變異卻可能影響病毒特性、傳播速度、其造成的疾病嚴重程度、對疫苗等藥物的抗藥性等等。

世衛組織目前辨識出4種新冠肺炎高關注變異株(Variants of Concern, VOC),包括目前在193個國家現蹤的Alpha,以及在170國出現的Delta。另有包括Mu在內的5個變種需要監控。

Mu在哥倫比亞發現後,在其他南美國家與歐洲都有接獲通報。世衛組織表示,Mu全球盛行率已降至0.1%以下,但在哥倫比亞的盛行率卻高達39%。
2021-09-01 16:55:09

墨爾本封鎖措施延長3周



澳洲決定將維多利亞州首府墨爾本抗擊新型肺炎疫情的封鎖措施,再延長3星期。當局已將抗疫策略從「清零」,轉為盡快安排更多民眾接種疫苗。
2021-09-01 16:56:09

新西蘭放寬措施民眾湧往海灘



新西蘭放寬大部分地區的嚴厲封鎖措施,民眾湧到海灘消遣,街上的餐廳就出現排隊等外賣的人龍。
2021-09-01 17:02:11

澳洲新州增1116宗確診 維州再多逾百人染病



澳洲新南威爾士州新增1116宗新型肺炎確診個案,較前一日稍為回落,但仍然是連續5日有過千人染疫。州長表示,有望在下月中提早達到7成疫苗接種率。

維多利亞州單日大幅增加120宗確診,有56宗未發現與之前的病例有聯繫,預料州政府將會延長明日到期的封城防疫措施。
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