【無了期唔知幾時完嘅武漢肺炎】國際疫情討論區09

日本我一直留意，第5波都出現咗差唔多一個月，好明顯真係比之前死少好多人，仲有同之前4波唔同既係連重症數都下降，好明顯係疫苗產出作用，就好似英國同以色列咁死亡數並無因為新一波爆發而大幅上升

No true. In UK, the number of vaccinated people get killed by the virus is larger than the number of unvaccinated people. Some British have written some rubbish to explain this.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/most-covid-deaths-vaccinated-heres-102424441.html?.tsrc=fp_deeplink :
More vaccinated people are dying of COVID than unvaccinated people, according to a recent report from Public Health England (PHE). The report shows that 163 of the 257 people (63.4%) who died of the delta variant within 28 days of a positive COVID test between February 1 and June 21, had received at least one dose of the vaccine.

I hope you have figured out why the explanation is rubbish.

Just have time to write a few more words:

All he siad are fake news. The peak of the 4th wave in Japan was on about 16 May this year, the peak of the Japanese deaths was on about 25 May this year. It is simply wrong to say that the 4th wave in Japan killed fewer.

The Japanese national record of new cases was set on 9 Jan 2021 (during the third wave). The Japanese national record of new deaths was set on 19 May 2021 (during the fourth wave).

So please just ignore this crazy vaccine supporter.

By the way, the British data does NOT mean getting the jab will increase the chance of getting infected. So I hope those anti-vaccine people will not take the British data and tell other people getting the vaccine will increase their chance of getting infected.

We have too many mad vaccine supporters and mad anti-vaxx. Please analyze the data faithfully.

One more:

Even the death curve provided by that person shows clearly that the 4th wave (on May 2001) has killed more Japanese.

我剩係好簡單睇到好明顯既數據，英國呢一波真係死亡率大跌

Have you read my comment written yesterday or the day bwfore?

It is the lockdown rather than the vaccination. The British scientists have drawn the correct conclusion. Please go back to read what I have said, I don't want to write it again.

You cannot just look at the data and draw conclusion.
You need to analyze the data carefully.

But just data analysis is still not enough. Something cannot be told by the data.

The former chairman of the American Federal Reverse is great and people called him "King of the Universe" just because he had set up regular meetings to discuss what the economic data could not tell.



When I look at the data of this pandemic, I do more than just analyse the data. I have to read a lot of reports about a country so that I can really know what actually happen in that country. This extra information helps me to understand and interpret the given data.

You have to know what the people on the street are thinking and doing before you can truly understand the data.

The former chairman of the American Federal Reverse, Allen Greenspan is great ......

新冠肺炎新增24本土、添2死 陳時中︰已超過一周不明感染源在10例以下

中央流行疫情指揮中心指揮官陳時中今天公布國內新增25例COVID-19確定病例，分別為24例本土及1例境外移入；另確診個案中新增2例死亡。全台累計1萬5558例確診、786人病逝。陳時中表示，今天個案分布的縣市稍多，但不明感染源仍在10例以下已維持超過一周，確診者已有逾87%解隔離，疫情趨勢仍持續穩定往下走。

指揮中心表示，今日新增之24例本土病例（其中12例為居家隔離期間或期滿檢驗陽性者），為19例男性、5例女性，年齡介於未滿5歲至60多歲，發病日介於今年7月19日至7月23日。個案分布以新北市9例為最多，其次為台北市7例、桃園市3例、彰化縣2例，台中市、苗栗縣及基隆市各1例；其中17例為已知感染源， 4例關聯不明、3例疫調中，將持續進行疫情調查，以釐清感染源。

指揮中心說明，今日新增2例死亡個案中，案8642為70多歲男性，具慢性病史，無相關接觸史，5月30日出現咳嗽、呼吸喘等症狀，同日採檢陽性後收治住院，於6月1日確診，7月20日死亡。案13781為70多歲男性，有慢性病及其他個案接觸史，6月16日採檢陽性，17日收治住院，18日確診。7月22日死亡。

指揮中心表示，今日新增1例境外移入（案15660），為本國籍20多歲男性，6月26日曾於西班牙快篩陽性，7月22日自西班牙入境，持有搭機前3日內檢驗陰性證明，入境時並無症狀，於機場採檢後至防疫旅館居家檢疫，於今日確診，同班機前後二排旅客匡列中。

More positive COVID cases in Tokyo

TOKYO – Olympic organizers announced 17 new COVID-19 cases on Saturday, including one athlete.

The latest update brings the total to 123 cases since July 1. Of the new cases, three – including the athlete – were non-residents of Japan, while the rest were Games contractors who are residents. Olympic organizers do not identify athletes by name when they test positive.

Organizers reported a three-day total of 74,528 tests from July 20-22, with 22 confirmed positives in that time.

The Age, an Australian news outlet, reported Saturday that a top government COVID-19 advisor said he did not believe organizers were prepared for worst-case scenarios.

Hitoshi Oshitani, a member of the federal government’s COVID-19 advisory panel and the head of virology at the Tohoku University School of Medicine, said the Olympic Village presents a special risk with participants sharing rooms.

“I don’t think the organizing committee has been doing their best to minimize the risk,” Oshitani told The Age. “They have just been saying the Olympics are safe without showing any strategy to minimize the risk.”

Tokyo 2020 spokesman Masa Takaya said organizers had coordinated with the national and Tokyo metropolitan governments in developing the playbooks, which outline health and safety protocols for all Games stakeholders.

“We are confident that we will keep delivering a safe and secure games,” Takaya said.

COVID impacted events

The first match of the beach volleyball tournament has been canceled due to a Czech player tested positive for COVID-19.

The Czech Republic was scheduled to play Japan, but the Japanese pair of Megumi Murakami and Miki Ishii will be declared the winners by default.

In rowing, Dutch rower Finn Florijn has been ruled out of the Olympics after testing positive for COVID-19, hours before before he was scheduled to compete.

After not qualifying for the men's single sculls quarterfinals on Friday, the 21-year-old was scheduled to participate in second chance race on Saturday. However, the Royal Dutch Rowing Federation said roughly four hours before the event that Florjin tested positive for the virus.

德州同佛羅里達個pattern同英國一樣
又係變好低死亡率

共和黨州佢地邊有lockdown呀？

I have answered this several times.
(1) There are much fewer deaths in the summer.
(2) The deaths are lagging indicator.

If you look at , for example, Florida, the number of desths hasjust going up rapidly.

The lockdown in UK happened in the winter.

All I can say is that you do not have a clear mind. You get confused just because you have mixed things up.

Can you see the rapid rise in the deaths right now (in Florida) on this graph? This rise is so fast that this is almost a vertical line on the right end.

I have to tell you a bad news. Florida will not as lucky as England.

England has very few air conditioners, even the Tube in London does not air-conditioners so that English people will suffer heat stroke when the temperature reaches only 26 degree/C.

If you are living in USA,then the Tube is what you called the subway. If you are living in Hong Kong, then the Tube is what you called the MTR. The pattern in Florida will not be the same as UK. When I said UK was in Hell last month, I also said that there would not relatively few deaths in July and August. However, this will not be the case in Florida, A lot of people will die in Florida from now on. I am very sorry to say that if you are living in Florida.

When the fall/autumn comes, UK will go deeper inthe Hell, but Florida will improve a lot when the cooler days come.

So, you have completely mis-understood the situation when you said UK and Florida had the same pattern.

9,256 new cases in Vietnam

New national record every day.
Keep worsening rapidly.

15,335 new cases and 129 new deaths in Thailand

New national record.
Keep worsening rapidly.

新冠肺炎今添12例本土、1例境外 無新增死亡

指揮中心表示，今日新增之12例本土病例（其中5例為居家隔離期間或期滿檢驗陽性者），為6例男性、6例女性，年齡介於20多歲至70多歲，發病日介於今（2021）年7月23日至7月24日。個案分布以台北市7例為最多，其次為新北市5例；其中10例為已知感染源、1例關聯不明、1例疫調中，將持續進行疫情調查，以釐清感染源。

指揮中心表示，今日新增1例境外移入（案15673），為本國籍60多歲女性，7月11日自緬甸返台，入境後至防疫旅館居家檢疫，7月14日因同行者（案15408）確診，被改列為居家隔離對象且持續於防疫旅館隔離，7月23日隔離期滿前採檢，於今日確診（Ct值35）；個案在台期間並無症狀，且檢疫與隔離期間未與他人接觸，故無匡列接觸者。

First U.S. staffer tests positive for COVID-19

TOKYO – A staff member in the U.S. delegation has tested positive for coronavirus, the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee said Sunday.

It was the only confirmed positive among 1,038 U.S. delegates.

The International Olympic Committee announced 10 new COVID-19 positive cases on Sunday. Eight were non-residents of Japan, including two athletes. Organizers have announced 132 cases since July 1.

再多10名奧運相關人士檢測呈陽性 荷蘭賽艇教練染疫

東京奧組委公布，再多10名與奧運相關人士，對新型冠狀病毒檢測呈陽性反應，令相關個案增至132宗。

荷蘭奧委會表示，一名賽艇教練對病毒檢測呈陽性，正接受10日的隔離。代表隊說，這名教練昨晚獲通知檢測結果，他們正根據東京奧運的指導方針，追蹤密切接觸者。

荷蘭一名賽艇運動員，早前亦被驗出對新冠病毒呈陽性。

Steps to understand the COVID_19 Data

1. Determine whether the reported data is real.
For example, I took a lot of time to study the data from Vietnam before I accepted its data. People (including myself) did not trust Vietnam. This is very important because some countries can do crazy things. For examples,
(a) https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/world/breakingnews/3135447 : 「死亡者」計入痊癒人數 智利神操作驚呆全球

See our discussion last year at 國際疫情討論區 series.

(b) My rejection of the data from Iran created a heat debate at 國際疫情討論區 series last year. Finally, someone shown a news report in which Iran claimed to have the world most advanced virus detaction method. The machine they used looked like a land mine detector, and they held the detector on road side and pointed the device toward the passing cars. Iran claimed that the device had already proved that the people inside the moving car are free of virus!

So, you really need to know what really happens in a country before you can analyze the data from that country.

I will write other steps later.

The news report about the Iran equipment:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAHDbM5nunc

17,045 new cases (new national record) and 92 new deaths in Malaysia

Keep worsening!

政府已經封鎖晒疫苗副作用消息

https://lihkg.com/thread/2632172/

土耳其疫情反彈 單日新增逾1萬4千宗確診

土耳其單日新增超過1萬4千人確診感染新型冠狀病毒，比前一日增加2千多人。衛生部數據顯示，過去7天平均每日有超過1萬人感染，比前一星期的6千8百多人明顯增加。

當地本月初取消大部分防疫限制，大量民眾趁長假期到海邊城鎮度假，大部分人沒有戴口罩和保持社交距離。政府的應用程式將一個旅遊勝地列為高風險地區。

衛生部長呼籲民眾回想過往付出的代價和失去的親人，要提高警惕和接種疫苗，否則或要很長時間才能遏止疫情。

東京都連續6日破千宗確診 西班牙高球手染疫退出奧運

日本東京都新增1763宗新型肺炎確診個案，連續6日宗數破千，亦是疫情以來最多新增感染病例的星期日。

至於與奧運相關的感染個案至少有10宗，法新社報道，世界排名第一、剛剛贏得美國高爾夫公開賽的西班牙球手拉姆，兩個月內第二次被驗出確診後，宣布退出奧運賽事。另外，荷蘭奧委會表示，一名賽艇教練對病毒檢測呈陽性，正接受10日的隔離，連同隊中一名賽艇運動員早前亦被驗出確診。

對於先後有多名運動員在游泳比賽頒獎禮、以及奧運開幕儀式上無戴口罩，國際奧委會強調，口罩是東京奧運頒獎儀式上的必需品，敦促所有人遵守規則。

新冠肺炎今增10例本土、1例境外 連2日無新增死亡

指揮中心表示，今日新增之10例本土病例（其中5例為居家隔離期間或期滿檢驗陽性者），為7例男性、3例女性，年齡介於20多歲至70多歲，發病日介於今（2021）年7月19日至7月25日。個案分布以台北市4例為多，其次為新北市及桃園市各3例；其中8例為已知感染源、1例關聯不明、1例疫調中，將持續進行疫情調查，以釐清感染源。

指揮中心表示，今日新增1例境外移入（案15688），為本國籍50多歲男性，6月22日登船出海作業，該船於7月20日抵台靠港並進行全員採檢，個案檢驗結果為陰性，但因同船人員確診（案15576至案15581），由衛生單位安排至集中檢疫所隔離，7月25日出現喉嚨癢症狀，經衛生單位採檢後，於今日確診；個案隔離期間無接觸他人，故無匡列接觸者。