【中国武漢肺炎-無了期】全球疫情討論區07

打邊爐感染群組咪又係用tracking同isolation
最後用疫調搵番個無症狀
其實知唔知點解其他國家要封城?
因為佢地要盡快將有病同冇病既分流分
到差唔多就解封，再用番追蹤、隔離同做疫調去解決
香港都唔算叫半封城，佢只係停左部份行業，餐廳都係照開，工都係照番

I don't expect a linear function or a quadratic function can model the real world perfectly. Thanks for commenting on the toy project. I look forward to your insightful posts.

塔吉克+86 Confirmed,Total:379, +3 Deaths,Total:8
塞爾維亞+114 Confirmed,Total:9791, +3 Deaths,Total:203
喀麥隆+161 Confirmed,Total:2265, +44 Deaths,Total:108
南蘇丹+6 Confirmed,Total:58
沙特阿拉伯+1687 Confirmed,Total:31938, +9 Deaths,Total:209

It depends on what you try to do.

If you just do this as a school project, then you have done a good job. On the other hand, if you are doing real research, then you have to meet the current standard. The editor can refuse to send your paper out to peel review.

Until 10 or 15 years ago, your method is up to standard. However, in the past 10 to 15 years, big data took over the whole world if you are using statistical data approach.

The following are some of the stuff in just one email in my Inbox:

Coming to Grips with COVID-19’s Data Quality Challenges
The COVID-19 pandemic is generating enormous amounts of data. Large amounts of data about infection rates, hospital admissions, and deaths per 100,000 are available with ... Read more...

Localized Models Give Hospitals Flexibility in COVID-19 Response
Hospitals have been re-allocating resources and delaying elective surgeries in anticipation of a surge in COVID-19 patients over the past month. That surge didn’t materialize in most locations, and now, as the number of COVID-19 patients nationally begins to peak, hospitals are... Read more...

More Free Software Offered in Response to COVID-19
Organizations researching treatments for the novel coronavirus have an abundance of software and services at their disposal, including a range of additional offerings that analytics vendors are ... Read more...

You can see that there are a lot of efforts here. You have to be competitive because people do not have the time to read all those research results.

塔吉克真係

More relevant articles in the same email I have just mentioned:


New COVID-19 Model Shows Peak Scenarios for Your State
The United States is waiting with bated breath to see its crucial coronavirus curves – daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths – flatten, peak, and begin to decrease. Read more...

Cal State LA Introduces COVID-19 Dashboard, AI-Powered Mortality Risk Prediction Tool
COVID-19 is producing a deluge of data, from cases and hospitalizations to ventilator supplies and protein forms. Researchers at Cal State LA are leveraging that data, producing two tools. Read more...

COVID-19 Roundup: Apple, Palantir, Rolls-Royce & More
As the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps the globe, big data and AI have emerged as crucial tools for everything from diagnosis and epidemiology to therapeutic and vaccine development. Read more...

So, in just one email, there are 6 research results need to be read. The whole world just into the research of Covid-19. It is just too busy to read, work and write.

你鐘意繼續做封城撚都冇計
現實係冇可能封咁耐，無論係經濟上定人性上。印銀紙唔係萬能同埋唔係個個國家都可以承受大量印銀紙既effect。封一頭半個月咪ＯＫ囉。但你講緊既係封一年，根本上係冇可能　
最最最壞既結果係，封完一年，疫苗唔撚work，白封

封關還封關，封城還封城。初時香港封關都唔會有人叫做半封城
ＮＹ呢Ｄ就叫半封城啦，你出街唔會屌你但出街都冇野做，因為所有食肆戲院娛樂都停撚晒。香港政府頂多都係限你幾多人一齊出街。

同埋大學都冇停，政府行政部門都冇停呀。政府只係停左非必要服務，工程個Ｄ back office根本照樣番緊工。如果香港半封城，復活節Ｄ人去西貢做乜春？

封城就唔係解決方法。封城個目的係為左分流有病同冇病既人，而又唔想有病既人傳得快過檢測既速度，分得７７８８咪解封。就好似依加ＮＹ咁，最初爆發係50% positive rate，到左最近跌到12~13%。到左最後，防疫個工作都係要算番追蹤同隔離同埋個人衛生防線。

其實南韓都係咁做，只不過南韓唔洗封大邱就攪點晒係分流病人個步驟（因為佢有新天地教會既名冊，搵晒佢地檢查同隔離就得）

Singapore + 2 deaths - - > 20 deaths

One 97 years old woman
One 73 years old man

老野

I told you earlier that one should use 7-day moving average earlier today. Now, Worldometers has changed from using 3-day moving average to 7-day moving average.

Are you working for Worldometers?

St Marino +19 cases - - > 608 cases

159 new cases and 6 new deaths in Algeria

Coronavirus Cases: 4,997
Deaths: 476
Recovered: 2,197

大家覺得喺香港要戴口罩要戴到幾時

No, I am not but I think it just took some time for them to figure out 7-day moving average is better.

至少出年

1,444 new cases and 369 new deaths in Italy

Coronavirus Cases: 214,457
Deaths: 29,684
Recovered: 93,245

Stable

2,940 new cases and 75 new deaths in India

Coronavirus Cases: 52,340
Deaths: 1,768
Recovered: 14,911

Stay at the peak

Hmm, I just found it interesting to model the pandemic data. So, watched a few video from YouTube, read a few articles, and started trying in Excel.

However, at some point, I found that it is more interesting to explore features in Excel. The model is now a by-product. There are a lot of manual work at the moment. It would be great I could automate most parts of it in Excel without writing code. It might or might not be possible but it's just fun.

Big data might be a better tool for data modeling but it is not for me right now.

P.S.: Thanks for sharing what the research community is doing. 獲益良多

Italy +1444 cases & 369 deaths - - > 214457 cases & 29684 deaths

UK +6111 cases & 649 deaths - - > 30076 deaths

Turkey +2253 cases & 64 deaths - - > 3584 deaths

UK has 201101 cases
Turkey has 131744 cases

英國真係長爆長有，唔覺噁覺死亡總數已過意大利，仲係日日幾千確診、幾百死亡.... 仲話打算通關..