[D705-] 抗俄衛國 177: 援烏法案受阻：屌你共和黨玩撚夠未？

https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1752878324895100995
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呢單大家high下算啦，唔好信晒
https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1752671494667424002


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攻佔同打係兩個概念

https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1754129271311008108


https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1754130890610073897

source：
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/03/us-house-israel-aid-package-mike-johnson

https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1754120952751775770?t=Dp_cZT1dc4ZRR_PIKQLz0g&s=19

堅勇

但佢對家Za都唔弱，有烏黑蘭最有勢力嘅軍中極右納粹頭目撐：

上星期Ze週圍放晒風話要炒Za，但到今日Za仍然在位，如果最終炒唔到咪好樣衰。有個Blogger講咗句好貼切嘅commet : "...when it comes to coups and political shenanigans, I always bet on the guys with the guns. Zaluzhny has them, Zelensky don’t."

https://x.com/UKikaski/status/1754121588792803479?s=20

為免5毛帶風向, 我先PO呢段消息.

Source from TG Channel Tsapliyenko, 可信度方面就自己自行評估.

我就會睇烏克籣官方further confirmation, Avdiyiivka, the situation in the city has become critical 唔係第一次.

有咩咁樣衰？民主國家既總統你估真係大晒？
極權可以鐘意炒邊個就邊個，民主政府唔係。
你覺得樣衰，係因為你用左極權思維套落民主政府度

Open source 戰場更新:
庫皮揚斯克戰線: 前線冇大變化, 俄羅斯有聚集部隊跡象.
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1754189143108718690?s=20

烏南, Robotyne戰線: 冇變化, 幾日前澤連斯基到過前線慰問官兵.
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1754203914134565093?s=20

箂曼 - 克里門納戰線: 冇變化, 俄羅斯持續對克里門納增援.
https://x.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1754194414983901576?s=20

更加舊的我就唔轉貼啦, 請自行去Chuck Pfarrer的twitter睇.

庫皮揚斯克係蛾下一個目標，蛾佬集結4-5萬兵力。

佢哋集結部隊速度，比我想像中的更慢。

BTW，上一次（大約1-2個月前）話烏俄之間的接觸線，俄羅斯共集結了約61萬兵力。唔知最近呢個數字有冇變？

我無呢方面資料，不過今次的確集結慢左，慢到畀烏軍發現到出報導都未完成集結...

庫皮揚斯克方向的資訊, 可以係流, 亦可以係堅, 亦可以喺集結兵力數字上變化.

舊年9月吹10萬, 之後到宜家變成4-5萬. 而集結的兵力, 可以係鞏固防線, 亦可以隨時轉守為攻.

按俄羅斯的一貫玩偷雞摸狗的習慣, 一聲都唔出的地方先係真正目標, 好似舊年配合哈馬斯, 胡塞武裝組織發難的阿夫迪夫卡攻城戰. 呢個就係我講佐好多次, open-source intelligence 的侷限性.

真實的資訊, 只有secret intelligence先會有更clear 的picture. 我相信烏克籣與英美的情報機關, 係知道俄羅斯的"真實兵力部署與意圖".

https://youtu.be/7ZyhOLdsPcE
烏軍第3突擊旅Avdiivka地區戰地影片，有英文字幕

同時, 烏軍開始向霍爾利夫卡(Horlivka)郊區前進.
https://x.com/new27brigade/status/1754526620734628238?s=20

Horlivka是俄羅斯本土往頓內茨克的關鍵物流據點. 亦係俄匪進攻阿夫迪夫卡的物流集結地.

這便很有趣了, 假設呢幾日open-source的情報是真確, 俄烏雙方都同時擺出打波對方缺口的意圖/姿態.

我個人覺得係圍魏救趙。
彈藥不足係事實黎

https://twitter.com/Deepstate_UA/status/1754620755512299737?t=crudNLRxzrHaP2z8CTkkTw&s=19


情況不樂觀

俄軍 的趁天氣差攻入左北邊 (烏守軍用唔到fpv drone)


本身我諗住可以拖到 3月中 俄仔大選

我既睇法係
如果台海戰事一打
戰區就唔會只局限於台灣海峽
連南海附近既軍事單位都會進入戰鬥狀態 (大陸統戰模式)
由東沙群島、甚至南沙群島既軍事基地進行阻擊同封鎖航道既任務
(當然呢啲群島既作戰力量仍然存疑)
有軍事基地就要有補給線
你睇返地圖，最近呢堆群島既港口就係香港至汕尾附近
所以香港係有機會因為作為共軍補給中轉站而受到導彈攻擊 (睇返烏克蘭點攻擊俄軍既補給線)
但唔會被佔領 (因為易攻難守)