[D348-] 抗俄衛國 152: 巴赫姆特三面被包圍, but it still stands

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2023-02-09 08:30:19
澤連斯基英國演說
source: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/02/08/zelensky-uk-parliament-address-speech-in-full/

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Thank you so much, thank you. The people of the United Kingdom and their honorable representatives, all the people of England and Scotland, of Wales and Northern Ireland, of all the lands which have been home to brave souls since Europe came into existence.

I have come here and stand before you on behalf of the brave, on behalf of our warriors who are now in the trenches under enemy artillery fire. On behalf of our air gunners and every defender of the sky, who protect Ukraine against enemy aircrafts and missiles. On behalf of our tenth command, who fight to restore our Ukrainian borders. On behalf of our conscripts who are now trained, including here in Britain - thank you Britain.

And who will then be deployed to the front line, skilled, equipped and eager to win. On behalf of every father and every mother who are waiting for their brave sons and brave daughters back home from the war.

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Mr Speaker, you may well remember, roughly more than two years ago, we met with you here in Parliament - a great honour it was for me - and I remember we enjoyed tea. We talked, of course. We talked a lot about our people, and about our countries, about the British and Ukrainian political traditions.

Mr Prime Minister, Rishi, when we had our meeting earlier today, I said that I would tell a story in my address to the Parliament, a story about my feelings on my first visit to London as president in Autumn 2020.

The programme was packed - Royal Highnesses William and Catherine, and Buckingham Palace and an aircraft carrier of the Royal Navy. Westminster, of course, Downing Street, and of course, the (Churchill) War Rooms.

There is an armchair in the War Rooms, the famous Churchill armchair, and a guide smiled and offered for me to sit down on this armchair, from which orders were given. And he asked me how did I feel.

I said that I suddenly felt something, but it is only now that I know what the feeling was, and all Ukrainians know it perfectly well too.

It is the feeling of how bravery takes you through the most unimaginable hardships to finally reward you with victory.

Ladies and Gentlemen, I thank you for your bravery. Thank you very much from all of us. Yes, please, that is for you. All the applause for you.

You, all of you, you all showed your grit and character back then - strong British character. You didn't compromise on Ukraine, and hence you didn't compromise your ideals, and thus you didn't compromise the spirit of these great islands. Thank you very much.

And of course everybody understands that our countries, (in) absolutely different times, our nations defended freedom in the Second World War. The Iron Curtain divided us, our people went through crises and growth, through inflation and perils of social losses and social gains, it was tough but we always found friends and stamina to move ahead and achieve results.

This is the bedrock of our traditions. Ukrainians and Brits defeated the fear of war ahead of the time to enjoy peace, no matter what we encountered on different stages of our and your formidable history.
2023-02-09 08:30:45
And you and us, the whole (of mankind) achieved a similar result. Evil lost. We will always come out on top of evil. This lies at the core of our, but also your traditions.

However, the horizon never stays clear for a while. Once the old evil is defeated, the new one is attempting to rise its head. Do you have a feeling that the evil will crumble once again? I can see in your eyes, now, we think the same way as you do. We know freedom will win.

We know Russia will lose. And we really know the victory will change the world, and this will be a change the world has long needed. The United Kingdom is marching with us towards the most important victory of our lifetime.

It will be a victory over the very idea of war. After we win together, any aggressor - it doesn't matter, big or small - will know what awaits him if he attacks (the) international order. An aggressor who will try to push boundaries by force, who will inflict destruction on other peoples, who will try to endure his dictatorship at the expense of other people's blood in criminal and unprovoked wars. They will know, as the Kremlin does, any aggressor is going to lose.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have already achieved remarkable results. And we must make every effort to turn our achievements into the foundations of the future global security architecture.

The world needs your leadership, Britain, just as it needs Ukrainian bravery.

When the full scale invasion began, we, together with you Britain, and the United States and other allies, formed a true coalition of friends. That was very important.

You were among those, the few who helped before the large scale invasion began - exactly as it will be necessary to do every time in the future to prevent aggression from happening.

Your help was preventative, we must take these principles of preventative aid to those who are threatened with aggression. And (impose) preventative sanctions against those who threaten aggression as basic principles of the world under war policy.

We created a coalition of NLAWs (light Anti-tank Weapon), thank you. Of NLAW and Javelin that stopped the advance of the Russian army from the first day of the invasion.

We built the coalition of artillery rounds, and a coalition of air defence, which allow us to save the lives of our children, of our people, of our civillians, our women, our elderly, and our cities from atrocious Russian occupation and terror.

We put together a powerful sanction coalition, and your leadership, protecting the international legal order through sanctions against a terrorist state, cannot be questioned.

And we have to steadily continue along this way until Russia is deprived of any possibility to finance the war. Most importantly, together with the G7 we brought about a coalition of values, a coalition that protects the rules based order and human rights. A coalition that will work in such a way that over time there will simply be no grey areas in the world in which human life doesn't matter.

In order for it to be so, there must be justice. Anyone who invests in terror must be held accountable. Anyone who invests in violence must compensate those who have suffered from terror.

Terror, aggression or other forms of state violence are proposals for the creation of the special tribunal for the crime of Russian aggression against Ukraine. And special compensation mechanisms to compensate war losses at the expense of Russian assets are based on such principles.

Justice is one of ten elements of the peace formula proposed by Ukraine, and supported by Britain. I thank you for your readiness to invoke the formula. Thank you, Prime Minister. Thank you very much.

As I already mentioned, Ukrainian soldiers are being trained in Britain in particular to operate Challengers, your main battle tanks. Thank you, Rishi. Thank you very much for this powerful defensive step, for tank assistance.
2023-02-09 08:30:59
And thank you for the coalition of long range missiles is the latest of all. It will allow us to make the evil completely retreat from our country by destroying its airbases deep in the occupied territories.

And I'm not speaking just about weapons, we proved together that the world truly helps those who are brave in defending freedom, and thus paves the way for a new history.

A history of the world that knows how to be quick in help, who knows how to be effective in defence, who knows how to remain principled in dark hours. Who implements its treaties and arrangements in good faith, who does not allow perpetrators to enjoy immunity, who knows how to overcome veto when it is accused, who knows no fear, and who knows how to win.

This shall be the new reality of the free world, I'm sure.

However, evil, evil, evil is still around today and the battle continues. Yes, we know how it's going to end and how we are going to feel on the day that victory comes. Every day we continue to pay with lives. Pain and tears for bringing victory closer, with the lives of our people, our heroes whom we lose in battles.

With the lives of our heroes who take life and death risks every day to save as many of our soldiers and civillians as possible, and today I will have the honour to be received by His Majesty The King. It will be a truly special moment for me - for our country. In particular because I will convey to him from all the Ukrainians the words of gratitude for the support His Majesty showed to them when he was still the Prince of Wales.

And I also intend to tell him something that I think is very, very, very important for the future of Ukraine but also for the future of Europe. In Britain, the King is an air force pilot. And in Ukraine today, every air force pilot is a king.

For us, just for us, for our families. Because they are so few, they are so precious, that we, the servants of our kings do everything possible and impossible to make the world provide us with modern planes. To empower and protect pilots who will be protecting us.

And I am proud of our air force, and I brought a present from them to you, Great Britain. I will explain, it is the helmet of a real Ukrainian pilot. He is one of our most successful aces and he is one of our kings.

The writing on the helmet reads: "Give us wings to protect it."

I trust this symbol will help us for our next coalition, a coalition of the planes. And I appeal to you and the world with these most simple and yet important words: "Combat aircrafts for Ukraine. Wings for freedom."

Great Britain, you and us both struggle for peace but instead we are forced to face the (regime) that seeks to deprive us of peace and everything else that is valuable in life. Unfortunately, it is in human nature to allow evil. It then stands up against humanity. It then destroys and kills. It launches aggressions and breaks peoples lives.

You and us have already fought against such evil. You and us already have the experience of defeating the evil that is generated by human nature. I'm not saying there will be no more wars after the war ends - no. It is impossible to completely erase evil from human nature. Yet it is in our power to guarantee with words and deeds that the light side of human nature will prevail. The side you and us share, and this stands above anything else.

Thank you for your attention. Thank you for your support. And leaving British parliament two years ago, I thanked you for delicious English tea. I will be leaving parliament today thanking all of you in advance for powerful English planes.

By the way, it's almost 5 o'clock. God bless Great Britain and long, long live the King. Slava Ukraini (Glory to Ukraine).
2023-02-09 19:58:52
https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1623636493691682817?s=20&t=TGf8MFVUG4h1BtHDbHh8Rg

俄羅斯戰略時機上判斷正確:如果要奪回主動權,二月初比烏克蘭先一步發動攻勢係最後的窗口。

可惜俄羅斯能力上卻無法完成呢個超越佢哋目前極限的戰略目標,到最後4-5月開始終會因烏克蘭反攻再次陷入戰略被動。

https://twitter.com/Military_idv_tw/status/1623564881223094274?s=20&t=TGf8MFVUG4h1BtHDbHh8Rg

From ISW,俄羅斯似乎係從現有軍隊中再抽調精銳進行攻勢,而非2次動員大量新戰力。呢個係最蠢做法,普京到最後始終唔願意接受“唔總動員/第二次動員就冇機會達到戰略目標”的事實,睇佢點樣奸有奸輸。巴赫穆特,soldear證明佐如果連人海戰術堆屍流都唔願意玩,以俄羅斯正規軍宜家的實力連一個settlement 都難以推進。
2023-02-10 01:20:02
二月, 東部地區適合行軍嗎?
2023-02-10 04:33:32
宜家烏東0下,地面結冰,理論上裝甲部隊勉強可以推進。

但可惜,今年都係暖冬,適合裝甲部隊推進的凍土窗口太短,大約最多只有呢1-2星期。之後進入3月

另外,南部扎波羅熱,keep住夜晚零下日頭接近零甚至以上,土地根本凍唔實,強行用裝甲部隊推進的結果就係好似俄國155海軍陸戰隊的結果=被砲兵重創根本推唔到。

要喺不利行軍的情況下硬爆,就只可以用番華格納衝鋒=以極大量的堆屍衝鋒去吸砲彈同子彈,overwhelmed守方的彈藥,人力同補給。但衝soledar咁細的地方,都要用超過4000人死亡,超過萬名砲灰無法戰鬥去exhaust 守方資源,咁巴赫穆特,盧甘斯克同烏南,普京打算再用幾多萬砲灰去填(我個人估計,要強行overwhelmed防守方,冇20萬砲灰都做唔做)?

仲未計只有Wagner groups,先做得出呢種亳無人性,為求戰術目標不擇手段的反人類戰術,俄羅斯正規軍同一般動員兵唔會同你癲。
2023-02-10 09:25:37
用返裝甲部隊又唔同玩法
烏仔即時攞返Nlaw同標槍同你玩
唔好講暖唔暖冬
舊年一年咁耐
冬季由11月到二月
都無幾多大規模裝甲推進
根本俄狗戰車有好多問題

一係去年損失太多
二係整備不良
三係怕左單兵武器

之後先至出現而家用緊既人海戰術

如果裝甲推進有效同做得到
應該一早就做左
現實係話俾你聽俄狗做唔到/覺得無效

最大可能係戰車庫存見底
或者係戰車推進成本太高/效率太低
2023-02-10 10:41:37
人海戰術,目前只有華格納傭兵夠殘忍夠冇人性,可以海到足夠砲灰。所以目前亦只有華格納持續有進展。

俄羅斯正規軍目前打唔出咁兇殘的戰術。
2023-02-10 10:57:02
喺契弟身上學到嘢
2023-02-10 11:16:31
同二戰啲戲入面嘅黨衞軍一撚樣
2023-02-10 11:35:38
https://youtu.be/SFDTmyrGNLc

本日tactical report,我將研究重點放喺3:17左右。

題目:輪烏克蘭點樣喺現有的防禦同資源,限米煮限飯下,如何守住山頭陣地唔俾人海喪屍戰術屈機overwhelmed ?

次次咁俾華格納夾硬推喪屍屈機,真係好唔掂喎
2023-02-10 11:46:23
呢個戰術問題的嚴重性係:只要俄羅斯肯死人,願意接受攻一個戰術據點/高地死幾千砲灰做代價,佢哋就可以一直loop落去。

基於“料敵從嚴”原則,我哋必需以“俄羅斯有足夠砲灰不停重覆loop呢個步驟”為前題,進行戰術調整,喺進一步增援同春季來臨前,努力頂住呢波攻勢,盡可能避免再失戰術要地
2023-02-10 12:32:10
唔算用佐:攻擊密度太細,唔足以造成守軍短時間內打到冇哂彈藥的窗口 = 量未足以overwhelmed烏軍防禦。

睇番上面我po的,華格納完美示範乜嘢叫做真正“不計任何代價”,以海量連續攻擊仰攻,硬爆烏軍高地陣地。
2023-02-10 12:43:41
另外, Vuhelar, 俄羅斯double down 進攻壓力.
https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1623878789825703937?s=20&t=2ZSr-FmfjQpkOyfRYrpvDg

千祈唔好信俄羅斯國防部講的嘢: 佢話暫停進攻時, 其實係加倍投放力量進攻.
2023-02-10 13:10:13
https://twitter.com/WarNewsPL1/status/1623666868031455233
彭博社報導,英國將訓練烏克蘭飛官駕駛颱風戰機
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1623682881850683393
英國國防部長華勒斯:不會立即將英國戰機移交給烏克蘭,供應戰機可能需要好幾個月的時間,他不排除供應飛機的可能性,但表示可以透過使用遠程飛彈與無人機來進行空中支援
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1623641326485966849
萊茵金屬總裁告訴商報記者,正與烏克蘭評估提供最新的KF51黑豹主力戰車的可行性,預估第一批最快將可於15~18個月交付給烏克蘭

PTT
2023-02-10 13:12:44
https://twitter.com/new27brigade/status/1623697387280830466?s=20&t=OaMevt4s7JjprdhNVeLz0Q

嘢要掉番轉睇: 普里戈津更積極地招募囚犯砲灰, 因為用囚犯砲灰實行人海戰術, 起到戰術層面的效果. 最少能夠硬搌過烏克籣目前的防禦強度的陣地.

同時可以省監獄養囚犯錢, 借烏克籣之手消滅社會不穩定犯罪分子, 一舉三得的仆街嘢, 普京同普里戈津兩大反人類分子, 點解唔更積極地做?
2023-02-10 13:15:35
有冇人睇火力君?我見佢都跟得幾貼
2023-02-10 14:00:13
Link?
2023-02-10 14:00:46
門外漢一問, 如果某共放埋d 犯俾wagner, 又或者照抄用落台灣到, 會唔會對戰局/戰力有影響? 某共呢樣野絕對有可能做得出wor
2023-02-10 14:01:03
2023-02-10 14:05:37
睇過一輪,聽聽下唔覺得比夏洛山,新冷戰情報室好多。而且都係分析問題上都係擺脫唔到果陣中國武俠小說味。

加上純搵資訊的話,我追開的英文channel資訊可靠性更高,更接近sources。呢d中文,華語channel對識自己搵source同有分析方法的人而言,冇乜意義。

其實,真正成熟民主社會,只需要真正專業意見同準確fact+sources,唔使半桶水的key opinion leader。
2023-02-10 14:07:25
我覺得ok啦,有時間睇下你推薦嗰兩個
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