上年既今日， 我選擇左租樓，冇買到

[入市啦] 戴口罩排隊睇樓 買家開始心急
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其實如果唔理2047 唔諗住移民
一定係買左自住先
中國一線城市全部市區樓都有抗跌力 （唔係講緊起左無人住個d)
保持高樓價
睇埋供需 起樓唔係一事三刻既事 你睇政府供應搞成點
未來十年 如果供到樓就點都一定要買自住
唔好用其他流動資產比啦
買樓好多因素
比如你汁到平貨 比市價低一，二成買到樓個到已經好多 事實係好似你咁既想法既人好多
但買物業致富更多
大方向應該係 買股票之後夠首期同能力 就買自住 之後再分散投資物業加其他流動資產

最後 我成日覺得香港樓係貴在因為香港呢個有競爭力既地方 所以我睇樓通常用香港前景做掛鉤

供樓15000，就算第一年供，都有7500係落自己袋，之後只會愈來愈大部分係落自己袋

你供樓15000全落包租公袋未計你加租，加租機會瑋定摸月過銀行加息

同埋你假設左供樓一定係held to maturity其間升夠我唔可收放？唔可以加按套舊錢出黎玩你個10%回報大計？

收膠啦，袋錢落你袋呀

你呢啲simulation既盲點係假設左租樓果個最醒，而供樓果個就成舊飯咁坐係度供足30年樓唔會變陣

買樓成個過程好On9,同業主deal 過程仲on9
永遠唔會知低位，開始少少回暖已經要睇定
啲業主精過鬼，市太差，寧願封盤唔賣，多人問，又封盤睇定啲，又可以隨時加價

無計，大把份人渣樓既，真係太有實力，根本唔需要恐慌性拋售

仲有啲初哥初次買左樓後，經濟差時，呢班應該心理上最脆弱，可能心思思賣左自己層樓蝕少啲
但辣招hold 你3年，逼著頂硬上，經濟寒冬都回暖啦

講多少少，120首萬，當你玩到盡買700萬樓
層樓一年只升1.7%，已袋12萬，回報12/120=10%，同你已打和

Allianz 有隻 好似叫global growth

我真係唔想同你拗，你讀多兩年 finance 先啦
我既假設已經係令到買樓著數啲。我俾你層樓升到2000萬，我仲要交5萬蚊租。而我亦未計呢30年我有得借p loan, 你可以話你加按 draw錢，前題係你層樓要升值。否則你借錢既 flexibility一定冇我咁高，因為我既人工可以隨時借幾球 p loan.

120萬你話買700萬樓，咁你計下總共要俾幾多息。如果你層樓只係比通脹多少少，你最後會蝕到仆街。十年前買落，賺左當然好。宜家係講呢一刻入市，計既係未來潛在升幅。

我只係講點樣用第二個角度睇買樓，要點樣計值得投資既回報率，唔想哂時間教你呢啲finance 1001都未上既人，仲要以為自己好叻話袋錢落人袋。你 Reading差既，睇哂所有人既回覆先啦，好多你唔明既上面有人答哂。

你都assume 層樓係升到二千萬既話，業主借錢既flexibility一定大過你，銀行中意樓做collateral多過啲stocks/govies

仲未計mortgage rate<<p loan rate

如果有能力用筆錢搵多過樓巿既升幅，的確租樓係ok既
搵多幾年錢先再買囉咪
不過自問我無呢個能力，然後諗到我每一兩年都可能要搬屋執野，間屋唔可以照自己諗法去裝飾，我就都係買樓算

各有所好既，無買到係福氣

唔識投資，純鳩up。
如果我預計幾十年後層樓五百變二千萬，我會移民算

yes其實個問題係應該附上巨大債務傾家蕩產去買樓

如果本身大量資金攞少少買樓自住係冇問題

咁你諗定移民算啦

用三十年由五百萬去到二千萬其實好少同好易，每年樓價增長4.7%到就可以達成

如果樓衣樣咁risky asset都係得4.7%回報，其實經濟都非常麻麻

由呢一分鐘計起
30年後都過左2047
到時層樓值10億又如何
話你反中共沒收你財產

移民算啦

非常同意，10年前一百萬叫百萬富翁，而家一百萬可以做嗱都諗唔到

又2047論

五年前700 $105時月供100股

上年已上車

Just finish reading all the post. Sad that nobody taken this opportunity for any real discussion.

Anyway, I was in a very similar situation as you were in early, 2019. Can’t remember the event, but the market dipped 5%, and I managed to find a bargain down 15%. But when I found it, I had a few hours to make decision because I know there were 2-3 more interested party.

The same question/doubts I had on my mind, what the economy going to be like in 10-20 years. As in, would hk become like taiwan, where asset price are high but returns are super Low due to the low gdp. Political reason like other people mentioned, opportunity cost of investing the funds.

I took the deal because I know I ultimately want a portfolio of 45% real estate and 45% equity. And 10% mixed of FX, Gold/Silver and crypto (for gambling).

I don’t live in hk anymore due to the virus, and I left the house vacant, but I know if I rented it, the cash on cash return would be around 5%. Still negative cashflow tho, unless if I rented it out as mutiunits, but too much hassle.

I see a lot people arguing whether you could do 10% returns a year. But if we just looked at the average return of S&P500. And you picked the right mutual fund or index etf. You should, hopefully, get a low double digit return.

Anyway, want your opinion/open discussion on the following:

As a primary home, would it be safe to say that we don’t really need to consider the investment nature of the property. As theoretically, we won’t sell it. Of course, I’m ignoring the fact that we can take out equity (if it appreciates) or the fact you are building equity to it when you pay down the principle. If that’s the case, all we really need to consider, is whether the down payment could be invested elsewhere with a significant higher return. But since no one can predict, with high probability of winning ratio, then why not split the bet on property and equity. I’m currently reading about Kelly’s criterion. I think it be the key on your initial discussion here. It’s about money management or basically, how to split up our bets. (But you sound very aggressive and wanna all in on everything lol)

Seems like we be running into a bear market. Do you have any plans or strategy or any ideas on how we can profit out of this? Talking to my fds recently about this. They are storing up gold to hold value and they plan to buy google, amazon, Tesla and Facebook when it tanks.

Do you only buy into options or you also trade index? If so, do you buy London listed index or just straight from us listed funds?

Would you mind sharing your strategy for discussion? (I’m still trying to build my system)

I have also looked at investing elsewhere. Only capital or major city, London, New York, Toronto, Sydney, Melbourne. If you take in to consideration of taxes (assuming you have no tax arrangements and pay full) seems the cash on cash return are very similar to hk. Or maybe just 1-2% better. Was wondering if you have looked into overseas market and have any findings.

最後、我覺得如果未來5-10都係香港發展、收入又唔係太高、其實可以考慮買一間自住。收入唔高、基本上限死咗你投資嘅選擇。買樓基本上係唯一可以高leverage 嘅投資。唔喺慫恿人去買樓、只不過唔係高收入真喺好難會有機會用debt去build equity. 如果我未買樓，我都會出去睇下有冇大劈價貨。（個人意見、不喜勿插）

（另外移民無大家想像咁好、外國有外國嘅問題、一樣有閪人、閪政府、只喺無今日既香港政府咁閪、連戲都唔交。如果想等政府解決問題、不如諗下點樣增值自己、自己解決自己既問題好過呀。）

支持租樓

咁易一年10%
呢個世界無窮人了

我上面講完就被樓豬插