Leveraged ETF 討論區 (3)

咁買tqqq咪仲大波動

如果驚TMF 咪換EDV囉

It is fundamentally incorrect to say that bonds must necessarily lose money in a rising rate environment. Bonds only suffer from rising interest rates when those rates are rising faster than expected. Bonds handle low and slow rate increases just fine; look at the period of rising interest rates between 1940 and about 1975, where bonds kept rolling at their par and paid that sweet, steady coupon.


定心咒

all in tqqq果d都未驚 驚咩

美股指數真係世一
盤前股債都見紅
而加又雙綠了

星期六日又加餸！ya

再次多謝巴打個post
之前玩妖股輸返哂啲profit就痛定思痛
加入返etf教 即刻每晚訓得好好

ching周圍推tmf冇人要喎,我都係tmf信徒,最佳對沖

tmf（長債）信徒

VTI有15%中小股,VOO大股only,2010前一般中小股升得較快,近10年大股升得較快,建議VTI分散少少

有yield curve帶黎既價差。佢係賣出20年債買入30年債，只要長期息口唔好急升(which 唔太受fed rate影響)呢到會賺到另一部分錢
可唔可解釋多下?係咪因債券凸性令升息速度夠慢時可買高息債,然後用高息補價跌,然後債券凸性令價愈跌愈少,最後達成平衡?

其實我長期都有月供vxus扮嚇嘢懶係世界market對沖下
不過你兩三年經驗好似見到vxus一啲都冇乜用
美國跌vxus咪就係跌.升佢又唔識升喎
請問大家點睇

QE 係未會減輕通脹預期
長債價會升返？

我琴晚都勁早訓

張圖本身預設左一萬蚊all in 唔再入錢
現實情況係每個月會出糧入錢落券商戶口
作者強調係dotcom crash 高位曬冷 到而家就永不翻身
但個假設冇講逢低位加倉的話 一直扯低成本價
對美國科技有堅強信念的話
100% tqqq 的確係最終贏家

我估經歷多次武肺武肺嘅話，我應該會喺第一、二次熔斷之後就賣走咗。

最終贏家係 60/40
好多野好似係個post到loop左好多次

我又玩吓Portoflio Visualizer先，要同大家溝通嘅話我應該用咩setting？
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

Include YTD: No?
Rebalancing: Quarterly?
Leverage Type: None
Reinvest Dividends: Yes / No?
Display Income: No?
Factor Regression: No?
Benchmark: None?

我自己除左改做rebalance semi-annually/quarterly之外其他冇改
benchmark即係比你plot多條all in XXX既curve姐 我通常用QQQ/SPY做benchmark

I used to buy upro and tmf adopting inverse volatility strategy. But I really urge brother you to think twice before continuing it. The fed is expected to soon raise fund rate, and that the strategy only hold when the underlying top assets are negatively related. In face of the raising fund rate, the relationship is unlikely to hold anymore.

The strategy only is desirable when the two asset classes are inversely correlated aka the moment when fed stated its crazy QE after covid 19, and the portfolio did robustly outperform. Now with the above said, I think you should not hold too many bond in your portfolio

淨係sim 2011~ 既話自己去porfolio visualizer就sim到
2000~ 既話都可以用QQQ/mutual fund sim到 再舊d唔知
呢2幅係reddit一個po入面佢由遠古開始模擬既TQQQ data黎
但佢冇講點sim所以我做唔到亦都改唔到

認命