國際時事政治選舉新聞張貼及討論區（五）

侵侵點搞呀

貿易逆差原因只得1個，就係美國太有錢

假設original position 係中美互相進出口1000億，中國因為出口低增值產品，賺得嗰50億，但美國就賺到200億

結果一個月後，美國就可以有多200億向中國買野，但中國淨係多咗50億同美國買野，結果出現逆差。

係美國就業率已經近乎0嘅情況下，減overall deficit 嘅方法好有限

1. 禁運鎖國（依個唔洗解釋）
2. 加關稅（已經做緊但無乜用，鴻海式工廠要出幾高人工先會令美國人唔整飛機整手機？）
3. 提高儲蓄率（似乎最可行但會犧牲短期gdp growth)
4. capital investment/起基建 (依個中日政府玩咗幾十年，但trump 減完稅之後美國政府收入少咗好多，要靠私人投資）
5. 炒股同樓 (但理論上對gdp 0增長）

如果要打死中國就簡單啲，將中國嗰份轉比其它國家，ie free trade deal, 但咁樣overall deficit 唔會變，trump 亦無打算咁做

純粹俾個Overview大家，好多都係從Reuters同Wiki翻譯。

現況

瑞典係九月九日就會舉行國會選舉，選出349個議席，目前瑞典由中左聯盟執政(社民黨(113席)及綠黨(25席)組成內閣)，左翼黨(21席)支持內閣但未被邀請入閣。反對黨則有中右聯盟(溫和聯合黨(84席)，自民黨(19席)，中間黨(22席)及基民黨(16席))，以及瑞典民主黨(49席)。目前，中左聯盟係以少數政府執政。

選舉制度
349個議席以比例代表制選出，當中310席由29個分區選出，餘下39席則為平衡席，大約係政黨的得票分成。政黨要進入國會，需要最少4%的全國得票，選區則係12%得票。係到引假才子的解說：「瑞典的國會有2種議席，分區議席和「調整」議席 (adjustment seat)。選民只需要投票給分區議席，而在計算完分區議席後，會將全國的票加起來，按比例代表制原則計算各黨應得議席，如果分區議席分配結果跟全國比例有差異，就由調整議席去平衡。」。

議題
當中以移民難民問題最引人關注，當中瑞典接收163,000名難民，而暴力罪案係移民難民集中的地區尤其嚴重。所以好大的焦點係如何處理難民問題，點樣融入社區，又點樣去減少罪案。

而今年夏天的熱浪，突然令到一部分選民關注氣候變化的問題。

當然仲有其他議題，好似係投資高鐵，稅率，Law and Order等等。

選情



社民黨仍然佔優，但中左同中右聯盟都係得40%的支持，但同時已經表明唔會同瑞典民主黨合作，因此組閣要睇選完之後各黨互相討價還價，先可以知道邊個執政

政黨
中左聯盟



瑞典社會民主工黨 (113席)

典型的社會民主主義政黨，基本上得票係二戰後都未輸過。難民問題最近轉向保守，會收緊難民政策。



綠黨(25席)

環保撚，反對社民黨收緊難民政策，支持投資高鐵



左翼黨(21席)

前身為共產黨，支持加稅同福利，令社會更平等。支持一日六小時工作

中右聯盟



溫和聯合黨(84席)

主要以law and order去打選戰，主張收緊難民政策，06-14年的執政溫黨



中間黨(22席)

前身係農民黨，Pro-business同埋寬鬆的難民政策，係中右聯盟中的異類



自民黨(19席)

親歐政黨，今次主打教育政策，同國防及Law and Order政策



基民黨(16席)

以老人政策同醫療政策為主，主張收緊難民政策



瑞典民主黨(49席)


社會保守主義政黨，強調民族主義，主張收緊難民同移民同政策。

Reference:
Opinion polling for the Swedish general election, 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Swedish_general_election,_2018

Swedish general election
http://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/rngs/SWEDEN-ELECTION/010070EP0Z2/index.html

假才子: 匈牙利、選制混搭、得票議席不成比例
http://nonintellect.blogspot.com/2014/04/blog-post_2955.html

Swedish general election, 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swedish_general_election,_2018

Brazil presidential frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro stabbed

https://www.dw.com/en/brazil-presidential-frontrunner-jair-bolsonaro-stabbed/a-45390039

Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right candidate in Brazil's upcoming presidential election, suffered a knife attack on Thursday, during a campaign rally in the southern city of Juiz de Fora.

A video circulated on Twitter, published by major Brazillian newspapers, showed the moment when an unidentified individual stabbed the politician in the lower abdomen. The attack ocurred as the candidate was moving slowly through a large crowd.

In a press conference at the hospital, a surgeon said Bolsonaro suffered injuries to an abdominal vein, the colon and the large intestine. The operation was successful and the candidate was stable, but in a serious condition, he added.

Local media reported that Bolsonaro is expected to remain in the hospital for at least a week and that full recovery could take up to a month.

Video:

https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/1037780348304863234?

https://twitter.com/BlogdoNoblat/status/1037796447599697920?

Syria: Iran, Russia and Turkey meet to stave off Idlib offensive

https://www.dw.com/en/syria-iran-russia-and-turkey-meet-to-stave-off-idlib-offensive/a-45391626

Hundreds of civilians have fled the northwestern Syrian province of Idlib ahead of the Syrian regime's imminent military action in the rebel's last major bastion.

The Syrian government has vowed to retake the province, which has been controlled by the opposition since 2015.

Idlib is largely controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an al-Qaida-affiliated Islamist alliance.

Idlib is home to some three million people – around half of them displaced from other parts of the war-torn country.

Aid agencies and human rights groups warned of a major humanitarian crisis should Bashar Assad's regime launch a military offensive against Idlib's rebels.

The leaders of Iran, Russia and Turkey are holding talks in Tehran on Friday to discuss the situation in Idlib and find ways to avert a possible humanitarian disaster.

Twitter permanently bans Alex Jones and Infowars

https://www.dw.com/en/twitter-permanently-bans-alex-jones-and-infowars/a-45391272

Alex Jones, the US far-right conspiracy theorist famously known for describing the Sandy Hook school shooting as a hoax, was banned from Twitter permanently on Thursday. The move comes a day after Twitter CEO, Jack Dorsey, had appeared before a congressional hearing where Republican lawmakers questioned him over alleged bias against conservative voices on the social platform.

The company made the announcement on its @TwitterSafety account "Today, we permanently suspended @realalexjones and @infowars from Twitter and Periscope."

The ban follows similar actions taken by Apple, YouTube, and Facebook, who last month took down podcasts and channels from Jones, citing community standards. While Apple and Youtube issued a permanent ban, Facebook banned him for a short period. Twitter also temporarily suspended Jones's account, which touts 900,000 followers, for a one week period.

The tech giant had resisted calls to ban him completely, but a video Jones posted on Wednesday violated the company's policy against "abusive behavior," Twitter said. In the video, Jones is seen berating CNN journalist Oliver Darcy in Washington DC., when he attended the two congressional hearings on social media.

"We took this action based on new reports of Tweets and videos posted yesterday that violate our abusive behavior policy, in addition to the accounts' past violations," Twitter said.

"As we continue to increase transparency around our rules and enforcement actions, we wanted to be open about this action, given the broad interest in this case," the company tweeted.

Twitter said Jones will not be able to create new accounts on platform or take over any existing ones.

HNA plans to sell Deutsche Bank stake: WSJ

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hna-group-deutsche-bank/hna-plans-to-sell-deutsche-bank-stake-wsj-idUSKCN1LN0TM

FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Chinese conglomerate HNA plans to sell its 7.6 percent stake in German lender Deutsche Bank DBKGn.DE6 over the next 18 months, The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Friday.

The stake is worth around 1.5 billion euros ($1.8 billion) at current market prices.

The WSJ, citing people familiar with the matter, said HNA intended to unload the vast majority of overseas investments it has made in recent years.

The aviation-to-financial services group is selling assets to reduce massive debts built during an acquisition spree. It was rocked in July by the sudden death of its co-chairman, Wang Jian, during a business trip.

通街都係處: 梁啟智：速評《紐時》匿名公開信事件

https://lihkg.com/thread/809308/page/1

土耳其養住班武裝分子，唔通唔驚反過來影響國內治安。同埋盡早結束內戰對週邊國家都有利吧

以Erdogan 對國家的控制，班武裝分子應該唔係大問題，最重要係班Kurds唔會反撲，因為Kurds係Erdogan的眼中釘。只要敘利亞唔好搞Kurds的領地，內戰理論上唔會仲有太長，但係土耳其唔想Kurds一齊傾Peace Progress，所以都好難講。

但係Syria既庫爾德人有美國和歐盟支持，就算civil war結束，都相信會有美軍留駐。只要Kurds唔再搞獨立公投，Erdogan都無能力同藉口動手。倒不如同敘利亞既Kurds妥協，承認自治既地位，賣過人情比美國，改善關係吧

Unrest intensifies in Iraq as Iranian consulate and oil facility stormed

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iraq-protests/unrest-intensifies-in-iraq-as-iranian-consulate-and-oil-facility-stormed-idUSKCN1LN1M9

BASRA/ERBIL, Iraq (Reuters) - Civil unrest fueled by anger against perceived corruption and misrule by Iraq’s political elite intensified across the south of the country on Friday, as protesters stormed the Iranian consulate in Basra while others briefly took workers hostage at a nearby oilfield.

After five days of deadly demonstrations in Basra in which government buildings have been ransacked and set alight, protesters broke in and damaged the consulate’s offices, shouting condemnation of what many perceive as Iran’s sway over Iraq’s political affairs.

Security sources said the consulate was empty when the crowd burst in. Iraq’s Foreign Ministry said the storming of the consulate, which it deeply regretted, had nothing to do with protesters’ demands.

Ex-Trump campaign aide Papadopoulos sentenced to 14 days in prison

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-russia-papadopoulos/ex-trump-campaign-aide-papadopoulos-sentenced-to-14-days-in-prison-idUSKCN1LN1OG

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - George Papadopoulos, a former aide to then-Republican candidate Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign, was sentenced on Friday to 14 days in prison after pleading guilty last year to lying to federal agents investigating whether campaign members coordinated with Russia before the election.

Prosecutors for Special Counsel Robert Mueller said Papadopoulos lied to agents about his contacts with Russians during the campaign “to minimize both his own role as a witness and the extent of the campaign’s knowledge of his contacts,” according to the government’s sentencing memorandum.

Among those contacts were London-based professor Joseph Mifsud, who told him the Russians had “dirt” on Trump’s Democratic presidential rival Hillary Clinton in the form of “thousands of emails.”

Russia has denied U.S. allegations that it interfered in the campaign and President Trump denies campaign collusion.

Trump ups ante on China, threatens duties on nearly all its imports

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/trump-ups-ante-on-china-threatens-duties-on-nearly-all-its-imports-idUSKCN1LN1TH

ABOARD AIR FORCE ONE/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump warned on Friday he was ready to slap tariffs on virtually all Chinese imports into the United States, threatening duties on another $267 billion of goods on top of $200 billion in imports primed for levies in coming days.

The moves would sharply escalate Trump’s trade war with Beijing over his demands for major changes in economic, trade and technology policy. China has threatened retaliation, which could include action against U.S. companies operating there.

Hours after a public comment period closed on his $200 billion China tariff list, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One that he was “being strong on China because I have to be.”

“The $200 billion we are talking about could take place very soon depending on what happens with them. To a certain extent it’s going to be up to China,” Trump said. “And I hate to say this, but behind that is another $267 billion ready to go on short notice if I want. That totally changes the equation.”

Earlier on Friday, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow told Bloomberg Television the administration would evaluate public comments before making decisions on the $200 billion tariff list.

The U.S. Trade Representative’s office received nearly 6,000 comments and held seven days of public hearings on the proposed levies.

Most comments were from companies seeking to remove products from the tariff list, arguing there were few, if any alternative sources and the duties would cause financial hardship. Comparatively few applauded the tariffs.

PM 'retains confidence' in Northern Ireland secretary Karen Bradley

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-45444601

Theresa May has given her backing to Karen Bradley despite her comments about a lack of knowledge of Northern Ireland politics when she took the job.

The Northern Ireland Secretary said initially she did not know nationalists did not vote for unionist parties or vice-versa in elections.

Mrs Bradley also said she did not fathom some deep-rooted NI issues.

Downing Street refused to be drawn on the criteria used by the Prime Minister to appoint ministers.

Mrs Bradley told House magazine, a weekly publication for the Houses of Parliament. that Northern Ireland was "a very different world from the world I came from" and she did not realise campaigns are generally fought within each part of the community.

Obama speaks out against Trump and attacks 'politics of fear and resentment'

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/07/barack-obama-trump-illinois-dangerous-times

Barack Obama has delivered a sharp rebuke of Donald Trump’s America, attacking his successor by name for the first time in impassioned remarks that denounced “the politics of fear and resentment”.

In his first major political speech since leaving the White House, Obama made a lengthy appeal to voters across the US to restore “a healthy democracy”, and denounced the tactics employed by Trump and Republicans in Washington as an unprecedented threat to the country’s future.

“Appealing to tribe, appealing to fear, pitting one group against another, telling people that order and security would be restored if it weren’t for those who don’t look like us, or don’t sound like us, or don’t pray like we do – that is an old playbook, it’s old as time,” Obama said.

“It did not start with Donald Trump. He is a symptom, not the cause.”

Obama added: “[Trump’s] just capitalizing on resentments that politicians have been fanning for years.

“When there is a vacuum in our democracy, when we don’t vote, when we take our basic rights and freedoms for granted, the politics of fear and resentment and retrenchment takes hold.”

German spy chief contradicts Merkel over Chemnitz clashes

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/sep/07/spy-chief-questions-merkel-claims-over-chemnitz-clashes

The head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency has voiced doubts about claims that far-right mobs chased non-Germans during recent violent demonstrations in Chemnitz, clashing directly with Angela Merkel’s version of events.

Hans-Georg Maaßen said in an interview with the tabloid newspaper Bild that he had reason to believe “deliberate misinformation” had been spread.

“I share the scepticism towards media reports of rightwing extremists chasing down foreigners in Chemnitz,” he said. He had “no evidence to suggest that the video of this alleged incident circulating online is authentic”. He did not identify the video in question.

Officers from his Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) are reported to be trawling through evidence of the events in Chemnitz in late August, including hundreds of hours of film footage.

Non-German citizens, police and reporters were among those injured in the ensuing clashes.

German politicians accused Maaßen of downplaying a large amount of evidence, including witness accounts and video footage.

“We have seen pictures, we have heard witnesses, we have seen how people openly displayed the Hitler salute on the streets,” Thomas Oppermann, a vice-president of the Bundestag, told German radio.

Russia, Turkey, Iran fail to agree on ceasefire for Syria's Idlib

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mideast-crisis-syria-usa/u-s-military-drawing-up-options-should-syria-use-chemical-weapons-idUSKCN1LO03R

TEHRAN (Reuters) - The presidents of Turkey, Iran and Russia on Friday failed to agree on a ceasefire that would forestall a Syrian government offensive in the rebel-held Idlib province which the United Nations fears could cause a humanitarian catastrophe involving tens of thousands of civilians.

Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Hassan Rouhani, meeting in Tehran for a summit of key foreign players in Syria’s war, agreed in a final statement that there could be no military solution to the conflict and it could only end through a negotiated political process.

But as Syrian government and Russian warplanes mounted air strikes in Idlib on Friday morning in a possible prelude to a full-scale offensive, Putin and Rouhani pushed back against Erdogan’s call for a truce.

The Turkish leader said he feared a massacre and Turkey could not accommodate any more refugees flooding over its border.

Putin said a ceasefire would be pointless as it would not involve Islamist militant groups it deems terrorists. Rouhani said Syria must regain control over all its territory.

竟然

Polls have closed in the by-election after a tumultuous campaign for the Liberal Party, who are now bracing for potential defeat in the regional seat for the first time in more than 60 years.

A troubled campaign bookended by a local corruption scandal and a messy federal leadership coup has eroded the Liberals' once-safe 12.9 per cent margin, senior government sources say.

https://www.9news.com.au/national/2018/09/08/03/36/voters-head-to-the-polls-in-wagga

#WaggaWagga NSW By-election Primary Votes (1.4% counted):
LIB 25.3 (-30.6)
McGirr IND 27.2 (+27.2)
ALP 18.2 (-3.4)
Funnell IND 13.5 (+2.6)
SFF 10.1 (+10.1)
#nswpol #auspol

The Liberals have lost the 2018 Wagga Wagga state by-election in NSW, ABC election analyst Antony Green has said.

Results indicate the Liberal Party's first-preference vote has halved since the last election in 2015, with an almost 30 per cent swing against it.

Liberal candidate Julia Ham is currently in second place behind independent Dr Joe McGirr. The Labor Party's Dan Hayes is in third place.

"At the moment it appears that of the three candidates in this contest, the Liberals are currently the least likely to win," Green said.

The winner out of Labor's Mr Hayes and Dr McGirr will take a week to be determined, but Green said it was "certain the Liberals have lost".

Independent candidate Dr McGirr told reporters he was "delighted … with the result and the counting" so far.

"I feel very honoured. So far we are ahead of the primary votes. That is a big vote of confidence," he said.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-09-08/liberals-lose-wagga-wagga-by-election/10217434

Seb McDonagh (SFF) 4456 10.0% +10.0%
Julia Ham (Liberal) 11207 25.1% -28.7%
Joe McGirr (Independent) 11450 25.6% +25.6%
Ray Goodlass (Greens) 1285 2.9% -2.1%
Tom Arentz (CDP) 853 1.9% -0.5%
Paul Funnell (Independent) 4834 10.8% +1.1%
Dan Hayes (Labor) 10642 23.8% -4.3%

Labor 都好似冇咩benefit到

Egypt sentences hundreds over 2013 pro-Morsi protests

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45457935

Egypt has delivered verdicts for more than 700 people over a pro-Muslim Brotherhood sit-in after President Mohammed Morsi was ousted in 2013.

The court confirmed 75 people's death sentences and life imprisonment for 47 others, including Islamic leaders.

Rights group Amnesty International has called the trial "grossly unfair" and a violation of Egypt's constitution.

Violence erupted at the 2013 protest in Cairo's Rabaa al-Adawiya square, with hundreds killed by security forces.

Earlier this year, Egypt's parliament gave military officers immunity for the deadly crackdown and any crimes committed between July 2013 and January 2016.

Those who were sentenced in the mass trial were accused of security-related offences including incitement to violence, murder and organising illegal protests.

Trump tells Apple to make products in U.S. to avoid China tariffs

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-apple/trump-tells-apple-to-make-products-in-u-s-to-avoid-china-tariffs-idUSKCN1LO0SX

(Reuters) - U.S. President Trump tweeted on Saturday that Apple Inc (AAPL.O) should make products inside the United States if it wants to avoid tariffs on Chinese imports.

The company told trade officials in a letter on Friday that the proposed tariffs would affect prices for a “wide range” of Apple products, including its Watch, but it did not mention the iPhone.

Trump, speaking on Friday aboard Air Force One, said the administration had tariffs planned for an additional $267 billion worth of Chinese goods.

Trump tweeted that “Apple prices may increase because of the massive Tariffs we may be imposing on China - but there is an easy solution where there would be ZERO tax, and indeed a tax incentive. Make your products in the United States instead of China. Start building new plants now.”