另外，除非打仗，否則係冷戰後，外交已經唔係美國選舉的重要議題。
會比較推薦fivethirtyeight的poll，佢地modelling的方法:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/
國際時事政治選舉新聞張貼及討論區（五）
Filibuster_HK
992 回覆
52 Like
1 Dislike
第 1 頁第 2 頁第 3 頁第 4 頁第 5 頁第 6 頁第 7 頁第 8 頁第 9 頁第 10 頁第 11 頁第 12 頁第 13 頁第 14 頁第 15 頁第 16 頁第 17 頁第 18 頁第 19 頁第 20 頁第 21 頁第 22 頁第 23 頁第 24 頁第 25 頁第 26 頁第 27 頁第 28 頁第 29 頁第 30 頁第 31 頁第 32 頁第 33 頁第 34 頁第 35 頁第 36 頁第 37 頁第 38 頁第 39 頁第 40 頁
Poll的modelling有一定歷史因素，在任總統所屬政黨係中期選舉中大部分情況下都會失議席，其二係DEM係民調上佔優，三係侵侵民調上唔好，四係DEM Fundraising上佔優，加埋加埋就會有好大機會由DEM重奪House的控制權，雖然經濟數據不錯。而且，唔同2016年，侵侵/GOP的支持者應該唔會唔敢講支持侵侵
另外，除非打仗，否則係冷戰後，外交已經唔係美國選舉的重要議題。
會比較推薦fivethirtyeight的poll，佢地modelling的方法:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/
另外，除非打仗，否則係冷戰後，外交已經唔係美國選舉的重要議題。
會比較推薦fivethirtyeight的poll，佢地modelling的方法:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-fivethirtyeights-house-and-senate-models-work/
唔好低估gerrymandering, 2016 gop 不過多1.1%票但就係多50席
DEM要+6%先可能有一半議席，不過都同人口分佈有關
2016 election個個都話阿婆訓係到都贏架啦
所以咪會更新個民調方法囉
'Explosive device' sent to Clintons and Obama
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45969100
It comes two days after a bomb was found at the home of liberal philanthropist and financier George Soros in the suburbs of New York City.
The devices were discovered by technicians who screen mail sent to the former US officials.
CNN says it also evacuated its New York offices over a suspicious package.
According to a statement from the US Secret Service, the first package recovered was addressed to Mrs Clinton late on 23 October.
"Early this morning, October 24, 2018, a second package addressed to the residence of Former President Barack Obama was intercepted by Secret Service personnel in Washington, DC," the statement adds.
"Both packages were intercepted prior to being delivered to their intended location. The protectees did not receive the package
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-45969100
It comes two days after a bomb was found at the home of liberal philanthropist and financier George Soros in the suburbs of New York City.
The devices were discovered by technicians who screen mail sent to the former US officials.
CNN says it also evacuated its New York offices over a suspicious package.
According to a statement from the US Secret Service, the first package recovered was addressed to Mrs Clinton late on 23 October.
"Early this morning, October 24, 2018, a second package addressed to the residence of Former President Barack Obama was intercepted by Secret Service personnel in Washington, DC," the statement adds.
"Both packages were intercepted prior to being delivered to their intended location. The protectees did not receive the package
係咪自編自導自演架
尋日一話 early vote Rep 領先。。。。。
Khashoggi murder: Crown prince vows to punish 'culprits'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45968185
The Saudi crown prince has vowed to punish all the "culprits" responsible for the murder of writer Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.
Speaking at a business forum in Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman said "the crime was painful to all Saudis" but he would never allow any rift with Turkey.
The Saudis have previously denied accusations that the prince, the de facto ruler, had a role in the killing.
Khashoggi died during a 2 October visit to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The Saudi government has blamed the murder on "rogue agents".
These were his first public comments since the Saudis admitted Khashoggi had been killed at the consulate.
He said the killing was "a heinous crime that cannot be justified" and vowed that "those behind this crime will be held accountable... in the end justice will prevail".
He said there had been good co-operation with Turkey, adding: "A lot of people are trying to seize this painful situation to create a rift between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And I want to send them a message: you will never be able to do that.
"The rift will never be there."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45968185
The Saudi crown prince has vowed to punish all the "culprits" responsible for the murder of writer Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey.
Speaking at a business forum in Riyadh, Mohammed bin Salman said "the crime was painful to all Saudis" but he would never allow any rift with Turkey.
The Saudis have previously denied accusations that the prince, the de facto ruler, had a role in the killing.
Khashoggi died during a 2 October visit to the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The Saudi government has blamed the murder on "rogue agents".
These were his first public comments since the Saudis admitted Khashoggi had been killed at the consulate.
He said the killing was "a heinous crime that cannot be justified" and vowed that "those behind this crime will be held accountable... in the end justice will prevail".
He said there had been good co-operation with Turkey, adding: "A lot of people are trying to seize this painful situation to create a rift between Saudi Arabia and Turkey. And I want to send them a message: you will never be able to do that.
"The rift will never be there."
Theresa May 'wins over' Tory critics at Brexit meeting
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45959456
Theresa May has been applauded by Tory MPs after making a "heartfelt" appeal for unity over Brexit and urging her critics to get behind her.
The prime minister has been addressing all her MPs in Parliament, many of whom are seeking a change of approach.
Asked by one MP what concessions she had made to the EU, she set out areas where the EU had itself given ground.
Former minister Amber Rudd said the PM "won the room" while another MP said it was a "petting zoo, not a lion's den".
However, Tory MP Michael Fabricant told journalists waiting outside that the atmosphere inside the meeting was "not a lion's den but a petting zoo".
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said the PM's remarks were "very good" while former home secretary Amber Rudd said Mrs May "was able to win the room, despite being frank about difficulties still there".
"She looked like she really meant it," she told the BBC. "It felt heartfelt."
And Basildon MP John Baron said "the mood was, let's get behind the PM and get this over the line".
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45959456
Theresa May has been applauded by Tory MPs after making a "heartfelt" appeal for unity over Brexit and urging her critics to get behind her.
The prime minister has been addressing all her MPs in Parliament, many of whom are seeking a change of approach.
Asked by one MP what concessions she had made to the EU, she set out areas where the EU had itself given ground.
Former minister Amber Rudd said the PM "won the room" while another MP said it was a "petting zoo, not a lion's den".
However, Tory MP Michael Fabricant told journalists waiting outside that the atmosphere inside the meeting was "not a lion's den but a petting zoo".
Attorney General Geoffrey Cox said the PM's remarks were "very good" while former home secretary Amber Rudd said Mrs May "was able to win the room, despite being frank about difficulties still there".
"She looked like she really meant it," she told the BBC. "It felt heartfelt."
And Basildon MP John Baron said "the mood was, let's get behind the PM and get this over the line".
China listens to Trump cellphone calls, tries to sway policy: NYTimes
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-cellphone-china/china-listens-to-trump-cellphone-calls-tries-to-sway-policy-nytimes-idUSKCN1MZ02A
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chinese spies often eavesdrop on President Donald Trump when he uses his unsecure cellphone to gossip with old friends, and Beijing uses what it learns to try to sway U.S. policy, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing current and former U.S. officials.
Trump’s aides have repeatedly warned him that his cellphone calls are not secure and that Russian spies routinely eavesdrop on the conversations, but they say the president still refuses to give up his cellular phones, the Times reported.
The officials said U.S. spy agencies had learned from people in foreign governments and by intercepting communications from foreign officials that China and Russia were listening to the president’s calls.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the Times report.
China has a sophisticated approach toward the intercepted calls and is seeking to use them to determine what Trump thinks, whom he listens to and how best to sway him, the Times reported, cited the officials.
Beijing particularly is trying to use what it learns to prevent the current trade war between the two countries from escalating further, according to the newspaper.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-cellphone-china/china-listens-to-trump-cellphone-calls-tries-to-sway-policy-nytimes-idUSKCN1MZ02A
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Chinese spies often eavesdrop on President Donald Trump when he uses his unsecure cellphone to gossip with old friends, and Beijing uses what it learns to try to sway U.S. policy, the New York Times reported on Wednesday, citing current and former U.S. officials.
Trump’s aides have repeatedly warned him that his cellphone calls are not secure and that Russian spies routinely eavesdrop on the conversations, but they say the president still refuses to give up his cellular phones, the Times reported.
The officials said U.S. spy agencies had learned from people in foreign governments and by intercepting communications from foreign officials that China and Russia were listening to the president’s calls.
The White House did not immediately respond to requests for comment about the Times report.
China has a sophisticated approach toward the intercepted calls and is seeking to use them to determine what Trump thinks, whom he listens to and how best to sway him, the Times reported, cited the officials.
Beijing particularly is trying to use what it learns to prevent the current trade war between the two countries from escalating further, according to the newspaper.
Japan, China seek warmer ties against backdrop of U.S. trade friction
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan/japan-china-seek-warmer-ties-against-backdrop-of-u-s-trade-friction-idUSKCN1MZ00O
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s prime minister travels to Beijing on Thursday for his first formal bilateral summit with Chinese leaders in seven years as the Asian rivals seek to build on a thaw in ties against the backdrop of trade friction with Washington.
China has stepped up its outreach to Japan and others as it has locked horns over trade with the United States.
Japan, worried about China’s growing naval power, is keen for smooth economic ties with its biggest trading partner. It must manage that rapprochement without upsetting its key security ally, the United States, with which it has trade problems of its own.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who returned to power in 2012 when Sino-Japanese ties were in tatters due to a feud over East China Sea islands, has met Chinese President Xi Jinping many times since their first chilly conversation in 2014 on the sidelines of a regional summit in Beijing.
But his meeting with Xi on Friday will be the first full-scale Sino-Japanese summit since 2011.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-japan/japan-china-seek-warmer-ties-against-backdrop-of-u-s-trade-friction-idUSKCN1MZ00O
TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s prime minister travels to Beijing on Thursday for his first formal bilateral summit with Chinese leaders in seven years as the Asian rivals seek to build on a thaw in ties against the backdrop of trade friction with Washington.
China has stepped up its outreach to Japan and others as it has locked horns over trade with the United States.
Japan, worried about China’s growing naval power, is keen for smooth economic ties with its biggest trading partner. It must manage that rapprochement without upsetting its key security ally, the United States, with which it has trade problems of its own.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who returned to power in 2012 when Sino-Japanese ties were in tatters due to a feud over East China Sea islands, has met Chinese President Xi Jinping many times since their first chilly conversation in 2014 on the sidelines of a regional summit in Beijing.
But his meeting with Xi on Friday will be the first full-scale Sino-Japanese summit since 2011.
China's hidden camps
What's happened to the vanished Uighurs of Xinjiang?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps
China is accused of locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.
The government denies the claims, saying people willingly attend special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and religious extremism”.
Now a BBC investigation has found important new evidence of the reality.
What's happened to the vanished Uighurs of Xinjiang?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-sh/China_hidden_camps
China is accused of locking up hundreds of thousands of Muslims without trial in its western region of Xinjiang.
The government denies the claims, saying people willingly attend special “vocational schools” which combat “terrorism and religious extremism”.
Now a BBC investigation has found important new evidence of the reality.
咪玩啦，未開票嗰喎，連票站都未收到mail ballot 啦
應該咁講，early vote mail ballot return比較多的時候，GOP係會佔優，因為senior citizen同GOP voters一向比較多用呢一個方法投票
1. early vote %多咗可能係overall turnout rate 多咗，要事後先知
2. ethics minority 都鐘意vote in absentia,因為投票日要返工，票站唔會單獨公佈mail ballot 嘅點票，大家都係靠事後民調估估吓
3. 以usps 嘅效率，起碼等1星期先知mail ballot 係咪多咗好多
4. house election 嘅話，只有swing seat 先有價值，gop 係south dakota 拎100%票都唔會有任何影響
2. ethics minority 都鐘意vote in absentia,因為投票日要返工，票站唔會單獨公佈mail ballot 嘅點票，大家都係靠事後民調估估吓
3. 以usps 嘅效率，起碼等1星期先知mail ballot 係咪多咗好多
4. house election 嘅話，只有swing seat 先有價值，gop 係south dakota 拎100%票都唔會有任何影響
08,12 同16 early voting 都好高，08 同12 就obama 贏，16年就trump 贏，跟本已經無咗correlation
Project Veritas 又做野啦 
上次Claire McCaskill
今次到Heidi Heitkamp
上次Claire McCaskill
今次到Heidi Heitkamp
講緊提早投啲選民所屬政黨啫
不過炸彈呢單野，如果有陰謀就只係鞏固民主黨嘅選票。不過唔好估咁多，可能真係有痴線佬
不過炸彈呢單野，如果有陰謀就只係鞏固民主黨嘅選票。不過唔好估咁多，可能真係有痴線佬
[url]Two more bombs sent to former U.S. Vice President Biden, actor De Niro
[/url]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-packages/two-more-bombs-sent-to-former-u-s-vice-president-biden-actor-de-niro-idUSKCN1MZ1CP
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Authorities discovered another wave of suspicious packages on Thursday targeting high-profile Democrats and critics of U.S. President Donald Trump as a manhunt intensified for a serial bomber less than two weeks ahead of elections.
None of the nine devices went off and no injuries were reported, but some top Democrats called the threats a symptom of a coarsening brand of political rhetoric promoted by Trump, who also condemned the acts.
A suspicious package addressed to former Vice President Joe Biden was found at a mail facility in New Castle County in Delaware, a federal law enforcement official told Reuters.
Actor Robert De Niro, who hurled an obscenity at Trump at the Tony Awards last June, was also targeted, the official said.
[/url]
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-packages/two-more-bombs-sent-to-former-u-s-vice-president-biden-actor-de-niro-idUSKCN1MZ1CP
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) - Authorities discovered another wave of suspicious packages on Thursday targeting high-profile Democrats and critics of U.S. President Donald Trump as a manhunt intensified for a serial bomber less than two weeks ahead of elections.
None of the nine devices went off and no injuries were reported, but some top Democrats called the threats a symptom of a coarsening brand of political rhetoric promoted by Trump, who also condemned the acts.
A suspicious package addressed to former Vice President Joe Biden was found at a mail facility in New Castle County in Delaware, a federal law enforcement official told Reuters.
Actor Robert De Niro, who hurled an obscenity at Trump at the Tony Awards last June, was also targeted, the official said.
CIA chief heard recording of Khashoggi killing during Turkey visit: two sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-khashoggi-turkey/cia-chief-heard-recording-of-khashoggi-killing-during-turkey-visit-two-sources-idUSKCN1MZ128
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - CIA director Gina Haspel heard an audio recording of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi during her visit to Turkey this week, two sources told Reuters on Thursday, the first indication Ankara has shared its key evidence.
The killing of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and a critic of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has sparked global condemnation and mushroomed into a major crisis for the world’s top oil exporter.
Haspel, who arrived in Turkey on Monday, listened to an audio recording of Khashoggi’s killing during her visit, according to the sources, speaking on the condition they were not further identified.
Representatives of the CIA declined to comment on Haspel’s review of the recording.
“We have shared with those who sought additional information some of the information and findings that the prosecutor has allowed us to share and that is legal to share,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Thursday.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-khashoggi-turkey/cia-chief-heard-recording-of-khashoggi-killing-during-turkey-visit-two-sources-idUSKCN1MZ128
ISTANBUL (Reuters) - CIA director Gina Haspel heard an audio recording of the killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi during her visit to Turkey this week, two sources told Reuters on Thursday, the first indication Ankara has shared its key evidence.
The killing of Khashoggi, a Washington Post columnist and a critic of Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has sparked global condemnation and mushroomed into a major crisis for the world’s top oil exporter.
Haspel, who arrived in Turkey on Monday, listened to an audio recording of Khashoggi’s killing during her visit, according to the sources, speaking on the condition they were not further identified.
Representatives of the CIA declined to comment on Haspel’s review of the recording.
“We have shared with those who sought additional information some of the information and findings that the prosecutor has allowed us to share and that is legal to share,” Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told reporters on Thursday.
Pakistan releases two senior Taliban commanders: sources
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-pakistan-taliban/pakistan-releases-two-senior-taliban-commanders-sources-idUSKCN1MZ1YV
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (Reuters) - Pakistan has released one of the co-founders of the Afghan Taliban along with another high-ranking militant commander, senior members of the Taliban said on Thursday, with the freed fighters allowed to reunite with their families.
Pakistan declined to comment on the alleged release, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Faisal on Thursday telling reporters that he would “not like to comment on media reports”.
Security experts in Kabul said the move could be a result of talks launched by the U.S. special representative Zalmay Khalilzad with the Taliban. Earlier this month Khalilzad met Taliban leaders in Qatar in an effort to find a way to end the 17-year-old war in Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s co-founder and former second-in-command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, was released after high-level negotiations, three senior Taliban members told Reuters, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Mullah Abdul Samad Sani, another senior Taliban commander, was also released.
A senior official in Afghanistan, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Afghan authorities believe Islamabad this week released Baradar and Sani, along with Mullah Mohammad Rasul, a third Taliban figure. Rasul is the leader of the High Council of Afghanistan Islamic Emirate, a Taliban group in Afghanistan, the Afghan official added.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-pakistan-taliban/pakistan-releases-two-senior-taliban-commanders-sources-idUSKCN1MZ1YV
PESHAWAR, Pakistan (Reuters) - Pakistan has released one of the co-founders of the Afghan Taliban along with another high-ranking militant commander, senior members of the Taliban said on Thursday, with the freed fighters allowed to reunite with their families.
Pakistan declined to comment on the alleged release, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Mohammad Faisal on Thursday telling reporters that he would “not like to comment on media reports”.
Security experts in Kabul said the move could be a result of talks launched by the U.S. special representative Zalmay Khalilzad with the Taliban. Earlier this month Khalilzad met Taliban leaders in Qatar in an effort to find a way to end the 17-year-old war in Afghanistan.
The Taliban’s co-founder and former second-in-command, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, was released after high-level negotiations, three senior Taliban members told Reuters, speaking on the condition of anonymity. Mullah Abdul Samad Sani, another senior Taliban commander, was also released.
A senior official in Afghanistan, also speaking on condition of anonymity, said Afghan authorities believe Islamabad this week released Baradar and Sani, along with Mullah Mohammad Rasul, a third Taliban figure. Rasul is the leader of the High Council of Afghanistan Islamic Emirate, a Taliban group in Afghanistan, the Afghan official added.
btw其實台灣有無啲似樣少少嘅民調網站？