國際時事政治選舉集中理性討論區（四）

Peter Dutton would actively harm the Liberal Party’s vote if made leader, according to a ReachTel poll conducted on Wednesday night.

The poll of 2,430 voters found that 55.5% would be less likely to vote for the Liberals if Dutton becomes the leader, compared with 22.9% who would be more likely and 21.5% who say it wouldn’t change their vote.

In fact, a majority in all age groups and sexes would be less likely to vote Liberal. Women in particular seem to dislike Dutton - 57% would be less likely to vote Liberal. Young people aged 18-34 are most opposed (57.6%).

Malcolm Turnbull is the preferred Liberal leader with 38%, followed by Julie Bishop (29%), Tony Abbott (14%), Peter Dutton is on just 10% and Scott Morrison on 8.6%. So that’s bad news for Dutton - he’s behind his fellow conservative Abbott and good news for Bishop, who appears the best compromise candidate.

Amongst Liberals, Turnbull’s lead as preferred leader is even higher - he has 55% support.

The poll finds Labor leading the Coalition 53% to 47%

岩呀
支持佢上呀
夠正氣，睇緊 skynews

Let's recap now that the PM has finished speaking

He's still waiting for a petition signed by a majority of Liberal party MPs before he calls a meeting

He's also waiting for the Solicitor-General's advice on Peter Dutton's eligibility to sit in the Parliament under Section 44 of the constitution. He expects that advice tomorrow morning

If those conditions are met, he has flagged a partyroom meeting for midday tomorrow

At that party room meeting he will call a leadership spill, and he will not contest the leadership if the spill motion is carried

So the Prime Minister is digging in and refusing to resign.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-23/live-peter-dutton-poised-to-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-again/10155008

Let’s put some context into what we’ve learned. It’s shocking, really.

Malcolm Turnbull has effectively just booby-trapped the prime minister’s office for Dutton. Turnbull has shown some fight. “I’ve never given in to bullies,” he says.

And indeed he is not.

Here’s why: Turnbull has suggested he will walk from parliament if he loses the leadership.

That would trigger a by-election. A by-election would likely rob Peter Dutton of the ability to command a majority in parliament.

At the same time, he’s put serious doubt on Dutton’s ability to lead a stable government or sit as an eligible parliamentarian.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/23/turnbull-dutton-liberal-canberra-chaos-spill

點解要下台

Parliament is melting. Here's why and what happens next

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-22/parliament-leadership-crisis-explained/10151160

At a press conference on Wednesday afternoon he announced the policy of corporate tax cuts for businesses with turnover greater than $50 million — regarded as unpopular by some Liberal MPs — would be abandoned.

Alongside key supporters Treasurer Scott Morrison and Finance Minister Mathias Cormann, he even criticised a plan from Peter Dutton to scrap the GST on energy bills.

Behind closed doors and on phones, Mr Dutton and his backers are testing support, despite the party room defeat on Tuesday.

Confused about Malcolm Turnbull's leadership crisis? Here's how we got here

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-20/malcom-turnbull-leadership-crisis-explained/10139208

What's Turnbull's big problem?

Put simply, he's not popular enough.

The election is set to be held in the middle of next year.

Under Mr Turnbull, the Coalition has trailed Labor in 38 consecutive Newspolls.

In the Longman by-election in July, the Liberal-National candidate secured just 30 per cent of the primary vote. This was down almost 9 percentage points compared to the 2016 election.

If such a swing was replicated at the coming election, the Coalition would face a heavy defeat.

So what's Turnbull's other problem?

His original energy policy, which was trying to deliver cheaper energy, more reliability and lower emissions, enjoyed broad support — even in his party room.

Three quarters of Liberal MPs supported the policy at a meeting last week.

However, those who didn't support it threatened to "cross the floor" — that is, vote against it in Parliament.

Who's behind the opposition?

Former prime minister Tony Abbott — the man knocked off in a leadership challenge by Mr Turnbull — has been the most vocal critic of the energy policy.

Is it 'really' about energy?

These backbench MPs are generally more conservative in their views than Mr Turnbull.

They consider international emissions targets less important than energy prices, so their opposition to the policy makes sense.

But it's also the case that most of these MPs would be unlikely to support Mr Turnbull in a leadership contest.

Destabilising the prime ministership over this policy could deliver them a leader more closely aligned with their own personal views.

Sky News understands at least 35 MPs have signed a petition calling on Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to hold a party room meeting in order to sort out the Liberal party leadership.

Those who wish to change the Liberal party leadership will need to secure 43 signatures in order to force the meeting.

If that occurs, Mr Turnbull will call the meeting for midday Friday and if the spill motion passes he will resign, both as Prime Minister and as the member for Wentworth, meaning his successor will face an imminent by-election.

It is expected Peter Dutton and Scott Morrison will put their hands up to become the new Liberal leader.

Tony Abbott says not running

Lots of reports going around about potential leadership aspirants...


The former prime minister Tony Abbott's spokesman says he is NOT intending to put his hand up for leadership.



http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-23/live-peter-dutton-poised-to-challenge-malcolm-turnbull-again/10155008

佢再選到 工黨一定landslide

Two killed in knife attack in Paris suburb: source

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-security/two-killed-in-knife-attack-in-paris-suburb-source-idUSKCN1L80S9

PARIS (Reuters) - Two people were killed and one seriously wounded in a knife attack in the Paris suburb of Trappes, French authorities said.

The knife attacker was then shot dead by police.

“The police operation is over ... the person was neutralized and is dead,” the local prefecture said on Twitter.

Islamic State issued a statement claiming responsibility for the attack. BFM TV said the attacker shouted “Allahu akbar”, but police could not immediately confirm it.

Kosovo president says wants to "correct" border with Serbia

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-kosovo-president/kosovo-president-says-wants-to-correct-border-with-serbia-idUSKBN1KZ1O4

PRISTINA (Reuters) - A redrawing of the border to bring parts of Serbia with a majority Albanian population into Kosovo could end persistent tensions between Belgrade and Pristina and allow both nations to move towards EU membership, Kosovo’s president said on Tuesday.

Hashim Thaci told Reuters in an interview that he would present his plan to Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic when they meet in September in Brussels as part of a dialogue sponsored by the European Union.

Normalizing bilateral relations is a key condition for both Serbia and Kosovo to advance towards their eventual goal of EU membership. The Balkan neighbors agreed in 2013 to resolve all pending issues but have so far made little progress.

Some Serbian media and politicians have suggested redrawing the border to bring a part of northern Kosovo populated mainly by Serbs into Serbia and in return to give parts of southern Serbia with an Albanian majority to Kosovo.

Post V應該會改一改Post名

美國焦點
1. 侵侵對陣中國，伊朗，土耳其，歐盟
2. Special Counsel investigation Muller的各個案件正式進入法律程序 (Manafort八項控罪成立，Cohen認罪)
3. 十一月中期選舉
Overview:
(https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html)
民調:
(https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo)

歐洲焦點
1. 英國退歐談判持續
2. 歐盟內部爭拗加劇
3. 德國巴伐利亞州議會選舉

中東焦點
1. 敘利亞也門內戰持續
2. 美國退出伊朗協定後，美國對伊朗恢復制裁
3. 土耳其美國紛爭持續

亞洲及澳洲焦點
1. 中美貿易戰持續
2. 九月二十日日本自民黨黨魁選舉 (安倍晉三對石破茂)
3. 十一月台灣地區方選舉
4. 澳洲執政黨內訌之後續
5. 南北韓關係好轉，北韓仍未就放棄核武訂立時間表

其他:
1. 剛果民主共和國終於大選
2.衣索比亞及厄利垂亞和談後續

Post I: https://lihkg.com/thread/443907/page/1
Post II: https://lihkg.com/thread/485104/page/1
Post III: https://lihkg.com/thread/555511/page/1
Post IV: https://lihkg.com/thread/659239/page/1

US-China trade war: New tariffs come into force

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45255623

US President Donald Trump's trade war against China has moved up a gear as it brings in a 25% tax on a second wave of goods worth $16bn (£12.4bn).

The move ratchets up the dispute which began in July. The US imports far more goods from China than it exports to it.

There are fears that more tariffs could cause further damage to companies and consumers. Goods affected this time include motorcycles and aerials.

China immediately imposed retaliatory taxes on the same value of US products.

The US has applied new tariffs to a vast range of goods in 279 product categories, including children's cots and bedding, animal medicines, semiconductors, plastics, chemicals and railway equipment, shrimps and shrimp products, handbags and fridges.

China's list of 333 US product categories includes coal, copper scrap, fuel, buses and medical equipment.

Russia says 63,000 troops have fought in Syria

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-45284121

Russia has revealed the extent of its military involvement in the war in Syria.

A defence ministry video said more than 63,000 Russian military personnel had "received combat experience" in the country since September 2015.

The Russian air force had meanwhile flown 39,000 sorties, destroying 121,466 "terrorist targets" and killing more than 86,000 "militants", it added.

There was no mention of any Russian military or Syrian civilian casualties.

The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a UK-based monitoring group, says at least 7,928 civilians and 10,069 combatants have been killed in Russian air strikes.

The defence ministry video also said Russian forces had tested 231 types of weaponry in Syria, including aircraft, surface-to-air systems, and cruise missiles.

Russian forces have played a key role in consolidating the position of their ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, over the past three years.

考古(棄驚): [澳洲撚入] 究竟幾時先會再有澳洲總理可以做多過三年

https://lihkg.com/thread/789274/page/1

Live Text:

Solicitor general says Dutton likely to be eligible but 'some risk' high court would disagree – politics live

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2018/aug/24/liberal-spill-malcolm-turnbull-peter-dutton-scott-morrison-liberal-spill-politics-parliament-live

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull waits to call leadership spill but Peter Dutton 'not incapable' of running for Liberal leadership
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-24/live-turnbull-leadership-challenge-looms/10159462

Scott Morrison Australia's next PM, wins vote 45-40

Scott Morrison has won the leadership spill 45 votes to Dutton’s 40. He will become the next prime minister of Australia. Dutton, despite all the turmoil of this week, has lot the spill.

Turnbull’s preferred candidate gets in. What will this mean for the Liberal party and the bitter dispute, driven by conservatives, that has done it so much damage already? Will the Dutton/Abbott conservatives be content with this result? Hard to say they will be.

UK warns of red tape, card charges in 'no-deal' Brexit

https://www.dw.com/en/uk-warns-of-red-tape-card-charges-in-no-deal-brexit/a-45196455

Dominic Raab presented the first 25 of about 80 technical notices to be issued over the summer giving an indication of the impact on daily life if the UK leaves the EU without a deal in place next March.

In recent weeks, there have been concerns that the country could crash out of the 28-nation bloc without a deal amid infighting within British Prime Minister Theresa May's divided Conservative government.

Raab said he remained confident the UK and the EU would reach a deal, but said that he was releasing the documents to help people and businesses prepare for any disruption caused in case there is no deal.

The guidelines stated that companies trading with Europe would face new customs and excise rules and require paperwork covering customs and safety declarations. If Britain left without a deal, "the free circulation of goods between the UK and EU would cease," the guidance said.

Argentina: Authorities raid ex-President Cristina Fernandez's home

https://www.dw.com/en/argentina-authorities-raid-ex-president-cristina-fernandezs-home/a-45202491

olice in Argentina have raided the home of former President Cristina Fernandez as part of the so-called "notebooks" corruption case.

Some 20 police officers, accompanied by forensic scientists and dogs, entered her fifth-floor apartment in an exclusive Buenos Aires neighborhood just after noon local time on Thursday. The former leader was not home at the time.

Authorities moved in on Fernandez after Judge Claudio Bonadio, who is leading the investigation, successfully petitioned the Senate on Wednesday to partially lift her parliamentary immunity. She is suspected of having orchestrated a multimillion dollar graft scheme during her presidency from 2007 to 2015, which saw businessmen pay vast sums to government officials in exchange for public works contracts.

Now a senator, Fernandez enjoys congressional immunity from imprisonment but not from prosecution.

Two more raids are set to carried out at Fernandez's other two homes in Santa Cruz and El Calafate. Authorities have declined to disclose what they seek to uncover.

McCain to discontinue medical treatment

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/24/mccain-to-discontinue-medical-treatment-795472

Sen. John McCain will discontinue medical treatment for his brain cancer, according to a statement released by his family.

"The progress of disease and the inexorable advance of age render their verdict. With his usual strength of will, he has now chosen to discontinue medical treatment," the family said.

Diagnosed with the disease last summer, the Arizona Republican has been battling the condition in Arizona this year. McCain is not expected to return to Washington. A number of senators in both parties have visited him in Arizona, and well-wishes quickly poured in as the Senate began to digest that the war hero, six-term senator and 2008 GOP presidential nominee is in his final days.

McCain has not voted in the Senate since 2017 and the Senate GOP has accordingly been hobbled by his absence, with just a 50-seat majority in Washington. If he were to resign or die, Ducey would appoint his replacement. McCain won reelection to a six-year term in 2016.

少數可以話自己一生報國嘅公職人員

Zimbabwe court upholds presidential election results

https://www.dw.com/en/zimbabwe-court-upholds-presidential-election-results/a-45215463

Zimbabwe's top court confirmed President Emmerson Mnangagwa's narrow win in the country's July election, dismissing an opposition challenge. Mnangagwa, who succeeded Robert Mugabe, called for peace following the ruling.

In a unanimous decision on Friday, Zimbabwe's constitutional court dismissed a legal challenge by the opposition to have the July 30 election results annulled over vote rigging allegations.

The nine-judge court said in their decision that the opposition did not provide "sufficient and credible evidence" to support their claims.

Friday's decision confirms President Emmerson Mnangagwa's win in the election, securing his place as the first leader to take over following Robert Mugabe's 37-year-rule.

Mnangagwa, a member of the ruling ZANU-PF party, won the election with 50.8 percent of the vote, narrowly passing the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff. His main opponent, MDC leader Nelson Chamisa, garnered 44.3 percent.

Italy clashes with EU over Diciotti migrant boat

https://www.dw.com/en/italy-clashes-with-eu-over-diciotti-migrant-boat/a-45215364

The Italian deputy prime minister's threats to withhold European Union payments appeared to have little effect on Friday, as a meeting with EU states in Brussels to address Italy's migration woes ended with no solution.

Luigi Di Maio had said that Italy might stop making payments to the EU if the bloc did not assist in taking in 150 migrants on board the Ubaldo Diciotti rescue ship in the Sicilian port of Catania.

"Italy was pressing to come up with a solution for Diciotti," Reuters reported one diplomat as saying. "But it was not the most important element for the others — they wanted to talk more about structural solutions for the Mediterranean ships, so there has not been a deal on Diciotti."

Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain were involved in discussions, EU sources said.

In a Thursday evening interview on Italian TV, which the minister also posted on his Facebook account, Di Maio had said he would take a "hard line" on EU payments at the meeting.

"In recent months we have had the chance to see how a soft line with the European Union worked and how a hard line works," said Di Maio.

"If tomorrow [Friday] nothing comes out of the European Commission meeting, if they decide nothing regarding the Diciotti and the redistribution of the migrants, I and the whole Five Star Movement will no longer be prepared to give €20 billion euros ($23.1 billion) to the European Union every year."