國際時事政治選舉集中理性討論區(四)

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2018-06-17 10:15:13
Greek PM survives no-confidence vote in parliament

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/16/greek-pm-survives-no-confidence-vote-in-parliament

The prime minister of Greece, Alexis Tsipras, survived a no-confidence motion in parliament on Saturday, setting the stage for the signing of a historic accord with neighbouring Macedonia to settle a long dispute over the latter’s name.

The motion brought by the opposition, the New Democracy party, was rejected by 153 MPs, with 127 in favour. Political opponents had accused Tsipras of making too many concessions over the deal, due to be signed on Sunday.

Thousands of Greeks protested outside parliament against the accord with Macedonia, calling for Tsipras to resign. Police used stun grenades and tear gas to prevent them from entering the building. “This is a deal I believe that every Greek prime minister would want,” Tsipras told the chamber.
2018-06-17 22:00:35
Greece, Macedonia sign historic deal to end naming dispute

http://dw.com/en/greece-macedonia-sign-historic-deal-to-end-naming-dispute/a-44261028

Greece and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) on Sunday signed a controversial deal that could finally resolve a long-running dispute over the latter's name.

Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias and his FYROM counterpart Nikola Dimitrov signed the deal, which will see FYROM renamed as the Republic of North Macedonia, in the border region of Prespes.

The signing ceremony was attended by the prime ministers of Greece and FYROM, Zoran Zaev and Alexis Tsipras (pictured above center with Dimitrov, left, and Kotzias, right).

The deal, which has been protested by hardliners on both sides of the border, must now be ratified by the respective parliaments, and will also be put to a referendum in Macedonia. The process will take months.
2018-06-18 15:45:56
Taliban rules out extension of Afghanistan Eid festival ceasefire

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44513657

A widely welcomed three-day ceasefire between security forces and the Taliban in Afghanistan appears to be over.

The Taliban said its militants had been ordered to take up arms again on Sunday night - now the Eid festival had ended.

The government says it will continue a unilateral ceasefire for another 10 days, although security forces can defend themselves if attacked.

There were unprecedented scenes of soldiers and Taliban insurgents hugging each other during the ceasefire.

But the ceasefire failed to end violence entirely.

At least 18 people were killed in a suicide attack in the city of Jalalabad, outside the office of the governor of Nangarhar province while officials were meeting Taliban insurgents. Dozens were injured.
2018-06-18 15:48:13
Kaliningrad photos appear to show Russia upgrading nuclear weapons bunker

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/18/kaliningrad-nuclear-bunker-russia-satellite-photos-report

Russia appears to have upgraded a nuclear weapons storage bunker in its Kaliningrad enclave, in the latest sign of Moscow’s increased emphasis on nuclear arms in its standoff with Nato, according to a new report.

The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) will publish satellite images on Monday which the group says show a storage facility in the Baltic coast enclave between Poland and Lithuania being deepened and then covered with a new concrete roof in recent months.

He said it was unclear whether the Russian military already had nuclear warheads at the site, or that they are about to bring them in or whether the facility was being upgraded so that nuclear weapons could be moved in at short notice.

2018-06-18 15:49:25
Iván Duque wins election to become Colombia's president

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/18/ivan-duque-wins-election-to-become-colombias-president

Colombia has chosen Iván Duque, a conservative neophyte, to be its next president after a long and divisive campaign that often centred on a controversial peace process with leftist rebels the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (Farc).

Duque, who opposes the peace deal, won in a second round runoff election on Sunday with 53.9% of the vote. His vanquished opponent, Bogotá’s former mayor Gustavo Petro – once a leftist militant himself – defends the peace process.

Despite being the first leftist in the conservative country’s history to come so close to the presidency, he lost on the night, taking 41.8% of the vote.

Many now worry about the fate of the fragile peace deal signed with the Farc in 2016, which formally ended 52 years of civil war that left 220,000 dead and seven million displaced. That deal initially failed to pass a referendum with voters outraged by its guarantees of softer sentencing for rebel leaders and guaranteed seats in congress. It was later amended and ratified by lawmakers, a move some viewed as undemocratic. Sunday gave them another chance to voice their disquiet.
2018-06-18 19:18:27
可唔可以update下FBI IG Report 同默EE既最新情況
2018-06-18 19:37:28
Angela Merkel buys time in government crisis over asylum

http://dw.com/en/angela-merkel-buys-time-in-government-crisis-over-asylum/a-44271823

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is facing another tough day in the ongoing stand-off with her ally Horst Seehofer, interior minister and leader of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the Bavarian sister-party to her conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

The row is centered on an asylum system reform plan Seehofer wants to implement in Germany, which would see migrants who had already been registered in another European Union country turned away at the German border.

This would potentially disrupt the EU's Dublin immigration system and threaten the principle of free movement within the EU, especially if, as Merkel fears, other countries impose similar border controls. Some critics, including former Interior Minister Gerhart Baum, have described Seehofer's proposal as illegal, not to mention as a destabilization of a new government.

The CDU and the CSU are holding separate leadership meetings on Monday. According to CSU sources cited in several news agencies, Seehofer is willing to compromise and introduce measures step-by-step. The first step Germany would reportedly only start rejecting migrants who had previously been deported or were subject to an entry ban.

Over the weekend, Merkel won a small victory by managing to get Seehofer to agree to wait for a European summit, planned for the end of the month, so that a new bloc-wide asylum reform could be agreed.
2018-06-18 20:51:11
2018-06-18 20:51:55
默EE真係千古罪人
2018-06-19 10:48:26
Senate rejects Trump’s rescue of Chinese firm ZTE

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/18/senate-rejects-trumps-rescue-of-chinese-firm-zte-652459

The Senate voted Monday to reimpose the U.S. ban on Chinese telecom giant ZTE, in a rebuke to President Donald Trump and his efforts to keep the company in business.

The provision targeting ZTE was part of the National Defense Authorization Act, a must-pass defense spending bill that cleared the Senate by a vote of 85-10. It must now be reconciled with the House version of the measure, which takes a narrower approach to ZTE.

The vote raises the stakes in Congress' brewing confrontation with Trump over the Chinese company, which lawmakers of both parties consider a national security threat to U.S. networks.

The White House has been scrambling to avert a showdown on the issue, dispatching Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross to Capitol Hill last week and warning that any congressional action on ZTE should respect “the separation of powers.”

“I think the president wants to weigh in, and we want to listen to what he has to say,” Cornyn said, adding that “obviously there’s conflict" between the administration and Congress on the issue.
2018-06-19 12:49:06
Trump threatens additional $200bn in tariffs on China

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-44529149

US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on an additional $200bn (£151bn) of Chinese goods in a growing trade row.

Mr Trump said the 10% tariffs would come into effect if China "refuses to change its practices".

The move would be a major escalation of the dispute, which threatens to take the US and China into a trade war.

Mr Trump insists that China has been unfairly benefitting from a trade imbalance with the US for years.

Last week, he announced the US would impose 25% tariffs on $50bn worth of Chinese goods.
2018-06-19 12:52:14
大你二千億
2018-06-19 13:19:25
2018-06-19 13:26:14
2018-06-19 14:44:23
Kim Jong Un to visit Beijing this week

http://thehill.com/policy/international/392924-kim-jong-un-to-visit-beijing

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is expected to make a state visit to China this week.

Chinese state media announced that Kim would make a two-day visit to Beijing, the Associated Press reported Monday. It would be his third visit to the country in recent months.

The visit comes just just over a week after President Trump met with Kim for an historic summit in Singapore.

Kim’s visit to China also coincides with an escalating trade dispute between the U.S. and China. Trump on Monday called for additional tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, responding to China’s retaliatory tariffs that it put in place after Trump announced a first round.
2018-06-19 14:44:52
US, South Korea suspend upcoming military exercises

http://www.dw.com/en/us-south-korea-suspend-upcoming-military-exercises/a-44285130

The US and South Korea on Monday agreed to suspend upcoming joint military exercises on the back of President Donald Trump's historic summit with North Korea's Kim Jong Un.

"South Korea and the United States have agreed to suspend all planning activities regarding the Freedom Guardian military drill scheduled for August," South Korea's defense ministry said in a statement.

The move was later confirmed by the Pentagon. Spokeswoman Dana White said the two countries' senior defense officials were set to meet later this week, including the US' Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser John Bolton.

However, White went on to say that department had made no decision on future military exercises beyond August. "We are still coordinating additional actions. No decisions on subsequent war games have been made," she said, adding that there would be "no impact on Pacific exercises outside of the Korean Peninsula."
2018-06-19 19:11:20
FBI IG Report呢單就正囉

首先係個report原文:

https://www.justice.gov/file/1071991/download

雖然有成五百幾版, 但睇開頭executive summary(唔長, 得14版)同最後第497頁起conclusion(4版)兩parts, 都大體上知道呢份report講左乜

利申: 剩係睇左呢兩part



呢份report係回應就FBI同DOJ係查Hillary用私人email處理公務一案上面, 包括國會在內, 一堆人嘅疑問/指控, 睇下有無乜問題, 同埋有乜改善空間, 即係係一篇超長嘅薯仔文

啲疑問/指控大家都耳熟能詳, 包括最出名Trump講左N次, 做乜鳩唔拉Hillary(「LOCK HER UP」), FBI偏幫Hillary, 前局長Comey偏幫民主黨, 兩位職員Strzok同Page被指涉嫌用公職權力反Trump等(Strzok曾同時係FBI通俄調查隊成員), leakers問題等

咁呢個report集中探討FBI嘅Midyear Investigation, 即係上述話調查Hillary用私人email處理公務一案

OIG(Office of Inspector General)呢份report, 一開始outline左上述調查上嘅一啲決策, 以及佢地想查啲乜:

The question we considered was not whether a particular investigative decision was the ideal choice or one that could have been handled more effectively, but whether the circumstances surrounding the decision indicated that it was based on considerations other than the merits of the investigation.

即係佢地唔係調查FBI某決定/做法啱唔啱, 而係調查FBI某決定/做法有無受調查本身以外嘅因素所影響, 例如政治立場, 受賄之類



例如一度搞到滿城風雨嘅Strzok-Page text事件, 即係佢兩個用公事電話講:

“[Trump’s] not ever going to become president, right? Right?!”"

"No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it”

OIG開波就同你講結論係乜: 「我地搵唔到有證據顯示, 有不當考慮(例如政治偏見)影響調查」:


"Nonetheless, these messages cast a cloud over the FBI’s handling of the Midyear investigation and the investigation’s credibility. But our review did not find evidence to connect the political views expressed in these messages to the specific investigative decisions that we reviewed; rather, consistent with the analytic approach described above, we found that these specific decisions were the result of discretionary judgments made during the course of an investigation by the Midyear agents and prosecutors and that these judgment calls were not unreasonable. "(p. iii)

同時有提到, 佢兩位其實反而曾經提議要更積極搜證, 例如出傳票同搜索令去括Hillary料:

"We further found evidence that in some instances Strzok and Page advocated for more aggressive investigative measures in the Midyear investigation, such as the use of grand jury subpoenas and search warrants to obtain evidence." (p. iii)

係下面專門講傳訊, 用私人email等部分, 再同你講一次:

" We found that the conduct of these five FBI employees brought discredit to themselves, sowed doubt about the FBI’s handling of the Midyear investigation, and impacted the reputation of the FBI. Although our review did not find documentary or testimonial evidence directly connecting the political views these employees expressed in their text messages and instant messages to the specific investigative decisions we reviewed in Chapter Five, the conduct by these employees cast a cloud over the FBI Midyear investigation and sowed doubt the FBI’s work on, and its handling of, the Midyear investigation."

但要注意嘅係, OIG寫明, 每位FBI職員有理治立場唔係問題:

"We do not question that the FBI employees who sent these messages are entitled to their own political views."(p. xii)

即係佢唔理你私人政治立場, 唔好撈落公事到就得, 仲有, 唔好用公事電話講私人嘢


而係唔檢控Hillary上面, OIG結論係「我地搵唔到證據顯示關偏見等不當考慮事, 佢地呢項決定係出於專業立場」

"...We found no evidence that the conclusions by the prosecutors were affected by bias or
other improper considerations; rather, we determined that they were based on the prosecutors’ assessment of the facts, the law, and past Department practice.

We therefore concluded that these were legal and policy judgments involving core prosecutorial discretion that were for the Department to make." (p. vii)
2018-06-19 19:11:59
(續)

至於Comey嘅部分, 例如係Comey七月開記者會, 話FBI查完Hillary, 同係記者會上指Hillary班伙記“extremely careless", OIG嘅結論係Comey獨斷, 舉措唔啱DOJ規矩(點名舉例佢批評Hillary無被檢控嘅行為), 但無證據顯示受政治立場影響:

"We determined that Comey’s decision to make this statement was the result of his belief that only he had the ability to credibly and authoritatively convey the rationale for the decision to not seek charges against Clinton, and that he needed to hold the press conference to protect the FBI and the Department from the extraordinary harm that he believed would have
resulted had he failed to do so. While we found no evidence that Comey’s statement was the result of bias or an effort to influence the election, we did not find his justifications for issuing the statement to be reasonable or persuasive.

We concluded that Comey’s unilateral announcement was inconsistent with Department policy and violated long-standing Department practice and protocol by, among other things, criticizing Clinton’s uncharged conduct. We also found that Comey usurped the authority of the Attorney General, and inadequately and incompletely described the legal position of Department prosecutors." (p. vi)

OIG係Comey唔跟規矩, 反而依自己認為對FBI最有益嘅睇法而行動呢點上, 屌到佢開花, 如果有人有睇結論, 會發現係短短4版入面(有一版仲要係改善建議), 用左超過一版字去講點解跟規矩係咁撚重要


而Comey十月回應國會查詢, 話重開對Hillary嘅調查, OIG結論係--我諗你都就黎睇到個pattern-- 無搵到證據證明Comey回信係想影響大選:

"We found no evidence that Comey’s decision to send the October 28 letter was influenced by political preferences. Instead, we found that his decision was the result of several interrelated factors that were connected to his concern that failing to send the letter would harm the FBI and his ability to lead it, and his view that candidate Clinton was going to win the presidency and that she would be perceived to be an illegitimate president if the public first learned of the information after the election. " (p. x)

同頁list埋Comey當時要諗嘅嘢, 順便再屌鳩Comey唔直接同時任司法部長Lynch同副部長Yates溝通


題外話, 至於Leaker問題(即係「不當公開非公眾資料」), OIG寫明有第二篇專題薯仔文等出街:

"In addition, we identified instances where FBI employees improperly received benefits from reporters, including tickets to sporting events, golfing outings, drinks and meals, and admittance to nonpublic social events. We will separately report on those investigations as they are concluded, consistent with the Inspector General Act, other applicable federal statutes, and OIG policy."(p. xii)



TL;DR


OIG係咁寫佢地「搵唔到證據顯示FBI係有關案件上, 有因政治偏見而影響調查」

你可以當係司法部大大力咁摑Trump兩巴



咪住, 你以為Trump會咁解讀? 咁你就真係很傻很天真啦巴打

係IG report出左街之後, Trump係15/6話:

The IG Report is a total disaster for Comey, his minions and sadly, the FBI. Comey will now officially go down as the worst leader, by far, in the history of the FBI. I did a great service to the people in firing him. Good Instincts. Christopher Wray will bring it proudly back!

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1007577375905861637


16/6又講多次:

The IG Report totally destroys James Comey and all of his minions including the great lovers, Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, who started the disgraceful Witch Hunt against so many innocent people. It will go down as a dark and dangerous period in American History!

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1007986538985197568

當然仲有係咁retweet Fox&Friends

至於OIG寫左N次, 佢地搵唔到證據, 顯示調查受政治偏見影響, 咁Fox同Trump就當然提都唔提啦


我無追默姨姨近況, 等其他巴打補充
2018-06-19 19:15:59
伏羽忍冬 ,高質巴打
2018-06-19 19:38:25
好簡單咁講默姨姨,就係佢有兩個星期去傾難民問題。歐洲時間星期二,佢會同Macron傾難民問題同埋財政改革。其二,Macron係移民問題上其實比默姨姨保守同強硬,反而同意大利Conte 有偈傾。因此,默姨姨係難民同埋財政改革上都要有可能要同Macron compromise。

事實上, Seehofer 的提案係有問題,因為現時德國的入境設施唔係係邊境而係境內,因此冇可能係邊境唔俾難民入,同時奧地利當然唔會理你,難民去德國佢當然歡迎。同時,CSU 如果真係同CDU 分手,CDU 一定會入巴伐利亞選舉,到時CSU 到頭來可能得不償失,因為現時佢的目標係AfD而已。

所以,默姨姨暫時穩住局面,CDU 入面冇人叛變,要睇就睇未來一兩星期的發展。

Migration hijacks French-German summit

https://www.politico.eu/article/french-german-summit-emmanuel-macron-angela-merkel-refugees/

Angela rises from the ashes

https://www.politico.eu/article/angela-merkel-rises-from-the-ashes-migration-refugees-csu-horst-seehofer/
2018-06-19 19:42:57
Yemen: Government forces storm Hodeida airport

http://www.dw.com/en/yemen-government-forces-storm-hodeida-airport/a-44289937

Troops loyal to the Yemeni government entered the airport in the city of Hodeida on Tuesday. The move is part of a major offensive that began on June 13 to retake the Red Sea port.

"With the participation and support of the Emirati armed forces, the joint Yemeni resistance (army) entered Hodeida airport," the UAE state news agency WAM said in a tweet, backing up the reports given to DPA.

Capturing the airport would mark a crucial gain in the government's struggle against the Iran-backed Houthi rebels, as approximately 80 percent of imports and aid supplies that reach Yemen enter Hodeida's port.
2018-06-20 11:00:31
Merkel, Macron announce plans for new eurozone budget

http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-macron-announce-plans-for-new-eurozone-budget/a-44295456

Germany and France have agreed to "open a new chapter" in European Union relations, after Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron met to finalize plans for sweeping reforms of the 19-member eurozone, including a new parallel budget.

Tuesday's talks at Meseberg castle outside Berlin have a lot riding on them: Merkel's political survival rests on her finding a European solution to prevent another influx of migrants to Germany, while both leaders have staked their reputation on further reworking the eurozone.

The EU will set up a single eurozone budget to boost investment and promote economic convergence among all 19 member states. The new budget will be put in place by 2021, but details on how it will be financed still need to be worked out.

On migration, the two leaders said they would push for greater solidarity among EU states to ensure a European response to the refugee influx. They both restated their belief that the migrant flow to Europe needs to be reduced.
2018-06-20 11:04:51
US pulls out of UN Human Rights Council

http://thehill.com/policy/international/393086-us-pulls-out-of-un-human-rights-council

Trump administration officials on Tuesday said the U.S. has pulled out of the United Nations Human Rights Council, saying that the international body is "not worthy of its name."

U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Nikki Haley announced the withdrawal alongside Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, following multiple news reports that the move was imminent. Haley blasted the council as a "protector of human rights abusers and cesspool of political bias" and accused the body of "politicizing and scapegoating countries with positive human rights records."

The withdrawal, which comes as the 47-member body begins a three-week session in Geneva, had been expected as a result of the Trump administration's frequent criticism of the group's treatment of Israel.
2018-06-20 11:06:58
Senate GOP tries to defuse Trump border crisis

http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/393123-senate-gop-tries-to-defuse-trump-border-crisis

Senate Republicans on Tuesday moved to end a political crisis inflicted on the party by President Trump by voicing support for an immigration bill that would end the separation of children from their parents and guardians at the border.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said Republicans need to fix the problem through legislation, and that the fix should be narrowly tailored.

He also noted pointedly that “all of the members of the Republican conference” support a plan that would keep children with their families, underlining the strong opposition among GOP senators to Trump’s “zero tolerance” policy, which has resulted in children being taken from their parents.

“We need to fix the problem and it requires a legislative solution,” McConnell said during his regular Tuesday afternoon appearance before reporters — and just an hour or so after a defiant Trump showed no signs of backing down during a fiery speech.

Lawmakers in both parties, along with conservatives in the media and business, have panned the Trump policy for separating families, which has created campaign fodder for Democrats.
2018-06-20 11:11:19
Far-right Italy minister vows 'action' to expel thousands of Roma

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/jun/19/italy-coalition-rift-roma-register-matteo-salvini

Matteo Salvini vowed to turn “words into action” in his drive to root out and expel thousands of nomadic Roma from Italy as he shrugged off critics who said the far-right interior minister was adopting illegal policies reminiscent of the country’s fascist past.

He also praised on Twitter the demolition of an “illegal” house used by Roma in Turin - which had been ordered by a local council controlled by Salvini’s League party - even as he was condemned by rival politicians and a top Jewish leader.

The developments in Italy have caused the first major rift between Salvini and his Five Star Movement coalition partner. Luigi Di Maio, the leader of the anti-establishment M5S, called Salvini’s order for the creation of a new Roma registry “unconstitutional”. A similar census pitched by the former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi was blocked by an Italian court.

The Roma community has long been a target of Salvini, whose rise to prominence often involved press appearances at Roma camps, which he has frequently threatened to raze. Few minorities are treated with as much contempt in Italy as the Roma, who face prejudice and stereotypes that are deeply ingrained in the social consciousness.
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