英文 VERSION
with the help of google translate and self paraphrasing.
Welcome to amend it together.
1. Beijing believes that the epidemic has created an ideal opportunity for ‘settling’ Hong Kong 's situation, which is based on a basic assumption that the West is more severely affected by the epidemic than China and the economic recovery is slower than China. They believe that the west will not dare to stand against or decouple with China. Whether it is "War Wolf Diplomacy", "sharp power strikes", or Hong Kong's "National Security Law", it is a demonstration of realism brinksmanship. Just like the reclamation project of the South China Sea, no matter how strongly the international condemns, as long as there is no action, it is fact.
2. As a big winner of globalization in the past two decades, Beijing has long formed a "community of destiny" with elites worldwide. Although it is understood that "anti-China" has gradually become an international trend, the generation of "Chinese elite " will still be in power in countries for a least a decade. Self-interest becomes the pull factor for choosing the side of China. Nevertheless, it will not be surprised by the appearance of the"pro-China prosperity" political platform. This is the last strategic opportunity for China before the new values-dominated generation regains power.
3. Beijing is convinced that chambers of commerce in various countries only care about actual interests, and only worry about being extorted by the National Security Act due to the intimate contact with "foreign forces". However, as long as they will be surrounded by orders and favors at critical moments, the chamber of commerce will use its own lobbying group to enforcing anti-lobbying activities, jus like the British businessmen who were labeled as "selling Hong Kong" in the 1990s.
4. At the international level, the most qualified voice is the United Kingdom, but Beijing is convinced that the national power of the British is not as good as it used to be. It will only be gaming between China and the United States, and there will be no action or high profile gestures to give mandates to other countries. For example, the Chinese-British Joint Declaration has been unilaterally changed by China. In addition to withdrawing deployment companies from the United States in recent months, China has proposed to change to the United Kingdom for a public listing, which is a breakthrough. Trump is harsh on allies and believes in unilateralism. It is also the basis for Beijing to calculate that the West will not blindly follow the United States.
5. There can be many reactions from the United States. With the upcoming November election, politicians at all levels will use the anti-China card, but their ultimate goal is the vote they can get, while their actions is not matched with their stand. Based on the CCP ’s knowledge of human nature, it is determined that the United States will only pose sanction at most several subordinate officials (in the case of Xinjiang Secretary Chen Guoguo as an example), at which time it will be easy to appease the relevant persons by promoting them with a high-rank post, etc .; For listed Chinese companies and even further financial warfare, Beijing believes that American politicians, after calculating the pros and cons of their agents, will gently let go.
to be continued....
我陪你去瘋2020-05-26 15:28:07
6. Even if the United States claims that she will vigorously pose sanctions if the Hong Kong national law is passed, in international games, the exchange of chips does not necessarily have to be in the dispute itself. For example, in the second Taiwan strait crisis, China ’s official reason is to support the Middle East and contain the US military. The world thinks that the Soviet Union ’s missile crisis in Cuba surrendered, but they did not know that the US also withdrew its missiles in Turkey. Beijing believes that Hong Kong is China's core interest, but not the United States' core interest. Even if there is a concession, there are other chess for her to play, keeping the success of propaganda in Hong Kong.
7. At the local level, Beijing ’s basic strategy is to prevent the reappearance of parliamentary offensive and defensive war against Article 23 in 2003 and the Anti-Fugitive Offenders Regulations in 2019, so as to prevent moderate formations from vomiting or sympathizing for scrutinizing votes. As can be seen from the previous ballots, the "liberate camp/yellow camp" basic set is about 60%. Only the above two cases plus the "light blue" will lead to the landslide of public opinion. Beijing is doing its best to ensure that it does not appear again. It covers the very specifications of the entire business community, which is actually the "secondary return preparatory committee."
8. In the past, the "establishment/ pro-China camp" treats supporting the 23 articles and the extradition laws as hard work. This time, Beijing once again to gain pro-China camps support by offering them, high rank official positions. This is something that has not happened in the past. The 'pro-China camp' has never been more motivated than before in an attempt to maximize their interests. Even the most enlightened wise men of the establishment camp, they have been putting up a 'far-left politics' attitude lately.
9. In the face of Hong Kong people who are from the "pan-yellow camp" and all broad of groups which are anti-extradition law, Beijing differentiates them as the "mutual destruction camp". Although many claiming to be one of them, many of them only use this as a bargaining strategy rather than a goal, but many from the "light-blue camp" and "light-yellow camp" will conditionally think that "scramble" makes them losing their asset, the result they will slowly go back to the "pro-China camp", which is exactly the abacus for Beijing to construct the right to speak.