Leveraged ETF 討論區 (56)

夏日炎炎，你為此買了一部功能極佳的冷氣，可以準確的將室內溫度保持在20度，甚少偏差。冷氣開了幾個月，溫度一直近乎不變，電費卻相當可觀。統計上，電費與室內溫度全無關係，但我們不能由此推斷冷氣沒有用、電費白交。相反，一個亂用冷氣的人，有時調至凍得似雪櫃，有時開了等如沒有開，反而可以從數據中看出電費與室內溫度的關係。同樣道理，若果央行穩定有方，避免在菲利浦曲線上走來走去，那就算曲線真的存在，我們在數據中也不會看出什麼。推而廣之，工具運用得愈好，愈能準確達成目標，工具與目標之間的關係愈薄弱，造成工具無用的錯覺。

https://www.facebook.com/byrontsangpage/posts/pfbid0M2n1XTxvV9EJzvt4pwnEqXTyLstxvcZ4mGn4caMYZQjcES68Gto6xez6zNnvyxHKl

近嘅DITM SP先有機會俾人early exercise, 遠期嘅應該唔會
做埋Poor man covered call，賺息賺埋premium

The validity of the Phillips Curve has been a topic of debate among economists for several decades.

In recent years, some economists have argued that the Phillips Curve is no longer a reliable tool for predicting inflation. This is because the relationship between unemployment and inflation has weakened over time. For example, in the past, when unemployment was low, employers had to compete for workers by offering higher wages. This, in turn, led to higher inflation. However, in today's globalized and technologically advanced economy, the relationship between wages and inflation has become more complex.

Moreover, some economists argue that other factors, such as changes in productivity, demographics, and globalization, have weakened the relationship between unemployment and inflation. This means that the Phillips Curve may not be as useful as it once was for predicting inflation.

That being said, the Phillips Curve still has some value as a theoretical framework for understanding the relationship between unemployment and inflation. It is important to note that the Phillips Curve is not a law of nature, but rather a model that attempts to explain how the economy works. Therefore, its validity may depend on the specific context and time period under consideration.

1月通脹超預期，就算2月通脹都超預期，但係經過3月、5月、6月之後YoY通脹率一定會比而家低。
到時捱到Shelter都見咗頂，唔認為2023年terminal rate真係會加到6%以上。

用ChatGPT組遊戲王卡組
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SunI2u391H8

巴菲特的致股東信通常是一派親和口吻，然而在最新的致股東信中，他卻一反常態地抨擊美國生效不久的股票回購稅。
https://cn.wsj.com/articles/%E5%B7%B4%E8%8F%B2%E7%89%B9%E6%8A%A8%E6%93%8A%E8%82%A1%E7%A5%A8%E5%9B%9E%E8%B3%BC%E7%A8%85%E4%B8%8D%E7%84%A1%E9%81%93%E7%90%86-dc7a2873

會唔會比人 early exercise , 重點係睇個 extrinsic value 重剩幾多, 一少到0.25就好易比人 exercise
我依家做 ditm covered call 都要揀D 重有extrinsic value 嘅黎做

遠期都會比人 exercise, 只要 extrinsic value 一少就危險

將啲現金擺喺IB賺4%利息會唔會仲好賺過DITM Covered Call?

依隻嘢幾有趣，可以再研究吓
一方面會short volatility，同時會買DOTM UVXY Call去防VIX爆升
佢又會將現金拎去投資短期國債，仲會每個月派息
btw, 佢話no Schedule K-1即係咩意思？

Fact Sheet 4Q22
https://www.simplify.us/sites/default/files/etfs/factsheet/2023-01/SVOL%20Fact%20Sheet%204Q22.pdf
Fund Review 4Q22
https://www.simplify.us/sites/default/files/2023-01/SVOL-Fund-Review-4Q22.pdf
Prospectus

IB 有4%活期息, 以彈性黎講無得比, 問題係咁嘅高息維持到幾耐? 同埋使唔使好似股息咁扣30% ?
DITM covered call 主要係收股息+賺少少 permium 。 股息回報會因為你做 ditm covered call 而向上升

明白，即係放棄股價升幅去收更多股息+premium

IB 4%利息未必玩到好耐，可能2024就減息
不過有得玩嗰陣咪玩盡佢囉
應該唔洗扣30%稅

我嘅心態係用收息股做 ditm covered call剩收息, 滾雪球就靠 TQQQ call