國際時事政治選舉新聞張貼及討論區（六）

Labour prepared to back new Brexit referendum

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47363307

Labour has said it is prepared to back another EU referendum to prevent a "damaging Tory Brexit".

Jeremy Corbyn has told Labour MPs the party will move to back another vote if their own proposed Brexit deal is rejected on Wednesday.

Labour's Emily Thornberry said if the parliamentary process ended with a choice of no deal or the PM's deal, the public should decide.

Theresa May is under growing pressure to delay the 29 March Brexit date.

Labour have not yet made clear what their proposed referendum would be on, but a party briefing paper to MPs says that any referendum would need to have "a credible Leave option and Remain".

India launches air strikes on Pakistan-based militants
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47366718

India says it has carried out air strikes against militants following a suicide bomb attack earlier this month.

Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the strikes targeted Balakot, but it is not clear if that is in Pakistan or Pakistani-administered Kashmir. He said several militants were killed.

Pakistan said it scrambled fighter planes in response.

The move represents an escalation of hostilities between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

Mr Gokhale told a news conference that the strikes had targeted the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM).

The latest incident follows a suicide attack on an Indian security convoy in Pulwama, in Indian-administered Kashmir, earlier this month.

Theresa May is to promise MPs a vote on ruling out a no-deal Brexit or delaying the UK's departure, if they reject her deal next month.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47373996

Theresa May to offer MPs no-deal Brexit vote

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-47373996

Theresa May has promised MPs a vote on ruling out a no-deal Brexit or delaying the UK's departure, if they reject her deal next month.

Theresa May is making a statement to MPs on Brexit, amid the threat of a revolt by Remain-supporting ministers.

The prime minister promised MPs a meaningful vote on her Brexit deal by 12 March.

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn accused the prime minister of trying to "string" the Brexit process out.

The prime minister said she will put her withdrawal agreement - including any changes she has agreed with the EU - to a meaningful vote on 12 March.

If that fails, MPs will be offered two separate votes:

One, on 13 March, on whether MPs support a no-deal Brexit - so the UK would "only leave without a deal on 29 March if there is explicit consent in the House for that outcome"

If that fails, then MPs will get a vote the following day on requesting an extension to the two-year Article 50 negotiation process to delay EU withdrawal beyond 29 March

唔係話保守黨出動three line whip叫啲黨友要贊成may個deal咩

"The PM (Prime Minister) has said there will be a three line whip on an amendable motion tomorrow that will commit to two votes on March 12th in the event that her deal fails,"


自膠

Labour MP David Lammy, who backs a "People's Vote" on the terms of the UK's exit, welcomed the move by his party to "back the principle" of a referendum.

"Even if MPs can agree some sort of deal, it would be wrong to force it on the British people when we now know so many of the promises made in 2016 have been broken, and any deal will be worse than the one we've already got inside the EU," he said."

終於有人講呢句人話, Brexit個主旨係想又食又拎, 但唔記得左UK係EU本身已經係特權分子, 走左出去, 仲想拎返歷年拗到返黎嘅着數, 簡直難過上青天

延伸閱讀:

Brexit debate ignores UK’s privileged position in Europe
http://bruegel.org/2016/05/brexit-debate-ignores-uks-privileged-position-in-europe/

Nigeria election: Muhammadu Buhari re-elected as president
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47380663

Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has been re-elected for a second four-year term, final results from Saturday's general election show.

The 76-year-old defeated his main rival, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, with a margin of just under four million votes.

Mr Abubakar's People's Democratic Party (PDP) has rejected the result.

Delays and violence marred the run-up to the poll but no independent observer has cited electoral fraud.

Mr Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) won in 19 of the 36 states while the PDP was victorious in 17 states and in the capital, Abuja, according to the electoral commission (Inec).

Turnout was just below 35% of registered voters. The commission will make a formal declaration on Wednesday.

Balakot: Pakistan vows to respond after Indian 'air strikes'
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47375920

Pakistan says it will respond "at the time and place of its choosing" after India launched strikes against militants in Pakistani territory.

India said it had killed a large number of militants but Pakistan called the claim "reckless".

Tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbours have been high following an attack on Indian troops in Kashmir.

The attack was claimed by a group based in Pakistan, Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), and India had vowed to retaliate.

India accuses Pakistan of allowing militant groups to operate on its territory, something Pakistan denies.

Both India and Pakistan claim all of Muslim-majority Kashmir, but control only parts of it. The two have fought three wars and a limited conflict since independence from Britain in 1947 - and all but one were over Kashmir.

House votes to overturn Trump's emergency declaration

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/431722-house-votes-to-overturn-trump-emergency-declaration

The House passed legislation Tuesday to block President Trump’s emergency declaration at the southern border, marking an unprecedented congressional challenge to a president’s authority to invoke emergency powers.

The resolution passed easily through the Democratic-controlled chamber, 245-182, with Democrats voting unanimously to send it to the Senate. The GOP-led upper chamber is expected to hold a vote on the measure in the coming weeks.

Republican leaders, who had clambered to limit defections in their ranks heading into Tuesday's vote, were largely successful: 13 Republicans joined with Democrats to admonish Trump’s move — well short of the number Democrats would need to overturn the president’s promised veto.

Sponsored by Rep. Joaquin Castro (D-Texas), the one-page resolution would terminate Trump’s emergency declaration, thereby preventing the administration from extending the U.S.-Mexico border wall using funds previously allocated for other programs.

The vote marks the first time Congress has taken formal action to block a presidential emergency declaration since the power was created in the National Emergencies Act of 1976.

Democrats hinged their opposition on the basic principles of constitutional law, arguing that Trump’s unilateral move marks a clear-cut violation of the separation of powers and the unique authority of Congress to dictate where federal dollars are spent.

Cohen will present document to criminally implicate Trump
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/26/michael-cohen-testimony-congress-1186702

Michael Cohen, President Donald Trump’s former personal lawyer, plans to offer up a document to lawmakers that he claims will show the president engaged in criminal conduct related to a hush-money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, according to a person familiar with his planned congressional testimony.

The person said the document will refute a claim by Rudy Giuliani, Trump’s attorney, that Cohen used a $35,000 a month retainer from Trump as reimbursement for paying off Daniels. Cohen — who will soon report to prison for a three-year sentence tied to a litany of tax fraud and lying charges — is scheduled to appear Wednesday in a public House hearing, and will also testify privately on Tuesday and Thursday before Senate and House investigators.

During his testimony, Cohen also plans to address a much-discussed BuzzFeed report that the president ordered him to lie to Congress about business dealings in Russia during the campaign. The story initially sparked impeachment speculation, but was later thrown into question when special counsel Robert Mueller’s office took the rare step of issuing a carefully worded denial of certain elements of the piece.

“He’ll explain exactly why he lied and how he came to lie,” said the person familiar with Cohen’s testimony.

More broadly, Cohen will go into personal and character accusations against Trump, saying the president made racist remarks in front of him such as questioning the intelligence of African-Americans, according to the person.

After testifying behind closed doors on Tuesday, Cohen told reporters he's looking forward to Wednesday's hearing so he can "tell the American people my story."

Donald Trump in Vietnam for summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-47366398

US President Donald Trump has arrived in Vietnam ahead of his second summit with North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un.

Air Force One landed at Hanoi's Noi Bai airport hours after Mr Kim reached the Vietnamese capital by train and car.

The summit, which is due to take place on Wednesday and Thursday, follows a historic first round of talks in Singapore last year.

The two leaders are expected to discuss progress towards ridding the Korean peninsula of nuclear weapons.

Ceremonial guards had lined a red carpet laid out for Mr Kim as he arrived at Dong Dang border station on Tuesday morning. He was then driven to Hanoi, where heavy security and flag-waving crowds were waiting for him.

Mr Kim is thought to be travelling with his sister Kim Yo-jong and one of his key negotiators, former General Kim Yong-chol, both familiar faces from the previous summit with Mr Trump.

其實美國有無類似three line whip 依樣野？

嘩可以食花生啦

NRA不滿了
Judge gives green light to Trump ban on gun 'bump stocks'
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-guns-bumpstocks/judge-gives-green-light-to-trump-ban-on-gun-bump-stocks-idUSKCN1QF10L

(Reuters) - A federal judge gave the Trump administration the go-ahead on Monday to ban “bump stocks” - rapid-fire gun attachments used in the deadliest mass shooting in modern U.S. history - in a defeat for firearms rights advocates.

Opponents had sought a preliminary injunction saying the government did not have the legal authority to enforce the ban.

“None of the plaintiffs’ challenges merit preliminary injunctive relief,” Washington-based District Judge Dabney Friedrich wrote in a 64-page ruling.

When the rule takes effect as scheduled on March 26, bump stock owners will have to turn in or destroy the attachments, which allow semi-automatic weapons to fire like machine guns with a single pull of the trigger.

President Donald Trump had pledged to ban the devices soon after a gunman used them to shoot and kill 58 people at a country music festival in Las Vegas in October 2017.

The U.S. Department of Justice had announced on Dec. 18 that the ban would be taking effect.

The same day, gun rights advocates sued in federal court to challenge the regulation. They have argued the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) lacked the authority to equate bump stocks with machine guns under decades-old legislation.

One of the laws at the center of the legal dispute was written more than 80 years ago, when Congress restricted access to machine guns during the heyday of American gangsters’ use of “tommy guns.”

Friedrich found courts have regularly recognized the ATF’s authority to “interpret and apply the statutes that it administers,” including the definition of a machine gun.

The plaintiffs, including the Sacramento-based non-profit Firearms Policy Coalition, said in a statement late on Monday they were appealing the decision.

“We are disappointed but unsurprised by the court’s ruling tonight denying a temporary injunction to protect Americans from an unlawful and unconstitutional regulation,” the statement said.

Members of Trump’s Republican Party have fought off perceived threats to the U.S. Constitution’s Second Amendment guaranteeing the right to bear arms.

Trump’s move to ban bump stocks put him at odds on the issue with the National Rifle Association, which had opposed such restrictions.

https://bbc.in/2EedmCP
第四次印巴戰爭未

How will Brexit affect health services in the UK? An updated
evaluation
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)30425-8/fulltext

All forms of Brexit are bad for health, but some are worse than others. This paper builds on our 2017 analysis using the WHO health system building blocks framework to assess the likely effects of Brexit on the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK.

We consider four possible scenarios as follows:

a No-Deal Brexit under which the UK leaves the EU on March 29, 2019, without any formal agreement on the terms of withdrawal;

a Withdrawal Agreement, as negotiated between the UK and EU and awaiting (possible) formal agreement, which provides a transition period until the end of December, 2020;

the Northern Ireland Protocol's backstop coming into effect after the end of that period;

or the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship between the UK and EU.

Our analysis shows that a No-Deal Brexit is substantially worse for the NHS than a future involving the Withdrawal Agreement, which provides certainty and continuity in legal relations while the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship is negotiated and put into legal form.

The Northern Ireland backstop has varying effects, with continuity in some areas, such as health products, but no continuity in others. The Political Declaration on the Future Relationship envisages a relationship that is centred around a free-trade agreement, in which wider health-related issues are largely absent.

All forms of Brexit, however, involve negative consequences for the UK's leadership and governance of health, in both Europe and globally, with questions about the ability of parliament and other stakeholders to scrutinise and oversee government actions.

一樣有whip, 但由於美國唔係行國會制, 無UK咁有用
黨鞭講到底係威脅問題, 即係必要時有幾多leverage可以逼你歸邊
UK班MP可以身兼官員職位, 唔聽話黨領袖可以踢你去屎位/唔畀你上位/唔畀官你做, 所以leverage大好多
美國無得咁玩
以我所知, 以GOP為例, 最大威脅其實係你唔聽話, 黨領袖忍夠你的話
下次可以搵人係初選打對台, 分少選舉資源黎做瓜你
咁如果你輸左初選, 自然無得選大選
如果仲想選大選
由於一黨只可有一名代表出現係大選選票
咁一係就脫黨變independent參選
一係就用write-in選, 即係票無你名揀, 但其實選民可以照寫你個名, 一樣照計有效票
參議員Murkowski就係係10年GOP初選僅敗後, 最後唔忿氣用write-in參選general election, 最後畀佢選贏埋

TESTIMONY OF MICHAEL D. COHEN COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND REFORM U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000169-2d31-dc75-affd-bfb99a790001

20頁, 好淺易, 建議大家直接睇

Cohen嘅證詞主要係講述「佢所認識嘅Donald Trump」, 佢仲交左一堆文件畀眾院去輔助自己嘅證詞

Cohen交代左自己背景, 佢係Trump手下工作嘅情況, 指述左同俄羅斯商業合作同佢所知嘅Trump Tower Meeting情況, 而就佢所認識嘅Trump, 佢分左三部分黎講

1) Mr. Trump is a racist

呢part佢指大家都知, 係種族問題上, Trump公開言行有幾惡劣

The country has seen Mr. Trump court white supremacists and bigots. You have heard him call poorer countries “shitholes.”

但佢私底下仲衰, 例如問Cohen有無任何黑人領導嘅國家唔係shitholes, 當時係Obama做總統, 或者黑人太蠢, 永遠唔會投佢

He once asked me if I could name a country run by a black person that wasn’t a “shithole.” This was when Barack Obama was President of the United States.

(...)

And, he told me that black people would never vote for him because they were too stupid.


2) Mr. Trump is a cheat

呢part係講Trump有幾老千, 例如會吹大自己財產去入富豪榜, 但會同時撳低自己財產去避稅

Mr. Trump inflated his total assets when it served his purposes, such as trying to be listed among the wealthiest people in Forbes, and deflated his assets to reduce his real estate taxes.

仲有就係搵中間人bid自己幅肖像去推高價錢, 用嘅錢仲係慈善機構嘅錢

Mr. Trump directed me to find a straw bidder to purchase a portrait of him that was being auctioned at an Art Hamptons Event. The objective was to ensure that his portrait, which was going to be auctioned last, would go for the highest price of any portrait that afternoon. The portrait was purchased by the fake bidder for $60,000. Mr. Trump directed the Trump Foundation, which is supposed to be a charitable organization, to repay the fake bidder, despite keeping the art for himself


3) Mr. Trump is a conman

呢part係講Trump詐騙行徑, 例如係外遇掩口費事件, 要求Cohen墊底, Trump日後再畀返, 以免畀人查到Trump出錢掩口, 影響選情; 同要Cohen對佢老婆講大話, 否認佢有外遇

He asked me to pay off an adult film star with whom he had an affair, and to lie to his wife about it, which I did.

(...)

...Mr. Trump directed me to use my own personal funds from a Home Equity Line of Credit to avoid any money being traced back to him that could negatively impact his campaign.

而且佢事後還錢畀Cohen, 係o係佢已成為總統嘅時候, 即係Cohen指控總統犯法

I am providing a copy of a $35,000 check that President Trump personally signed from his personal bank 14 account on August 1, 2017 – when he was President of the United States –

(...)

The President of the United States thus wrote a personal check for the payment of hush money as part of a criminal scheme to violate campaign finance laws.

仲有兩個point係佢要求Cohen寫信威脅佢母校, 要求佢地唔可以公開自己嘅成績, 同要佢應付傳媒攻擊佢詐病唔去越南服役, 但事實上佢真係無病

I’m giving the Committee today copies of a letter I sent at Mr. Trump’s direction threatening these schools with civil and criminal actions if Mr. Trump’s grades or SAT scores were ever disclosed without his permission.

(...)

...At the same time, Mr. Trump tasked me to handle the negative press surrounding his medical deferment from the Vietnam draft.

Mr. Trump claimed it was because of a bone spur, but when I asked for
medical records, he gave me none and said there was no surgery.

接上文

至於俄羅斯相關, Cohen主要描述競選期間同俄佬傾生意, 佢對Trump Tower Meeting嘅印象同指Trump係WikiLeaks爆DNC email出街前, 佢已經知

1) 競選期間同俄佬傾生意

競選期間, Trump一直對外否認有同俄羅斯有任何商業來往, 原因係佢根本無以為過自己會贏到大選, Trump認為大選只會宣傳佢嘅機會, 為日後商業做廣告


Mr. Trump knew of and directed the Trump Moscow negotiations throughout the campaign and lied about it. He lied about it because he never expected to win the election.

(...)(隔左好撚多段, 上面係p5, 下面係p.9)

He never expected to win the primary. He never expected to win the general election. The campaign – for him – was always a marketing opportunity.

甚至暗示Cohen要係國會作供時, 講大話否認有同俄羅斯有任何商業來往, 而Cohen出席聽證會前嘅證詞, 甚至有Trump嘅律師過目

Mr. Trump had made clear to me, through his personal statements to me that we both knew were false and through his lies to the country, that he wanted me to lie. And he made it clear to me because his personal attorneys reviewed my statement before I gave it to Congress.

2) Trump Tower Meeting

就Trump或Trump Campaign有無與俄並謀, Cohen指自己無直接證據, 但佢有懷疑過, 描述有次Trump大仔入房, 係Trump耳邊講“The meeting is all set.”, 而Trump應話好

I recalled Don Jr. leaning over to his father and speaking in a low voice, which I could clearly hear, and saying: “The meeting is all set.” I remember Mr. Trump saying, “Ok good…let me know.”

(...)

I also knew that nothing went on in Trump world, especially the campaign, without Mr. Trump’s knowledge and approval. So, I concluded that Don Jr. was referring to that June 2016 Trump Tower meeting about dirt on Hillary with the Russian representative when he walked behind his dad’s desk that day -- and that Mr. Trump knew that was the meeting Don Jr. was talking about when he said, “That’s good…let me know.”


3) WikiLeaks爆DNC email出街事件

成篇證詞, 係通俄案上對Trump殺傷力最強嘅, 係Cohen作供指Trump係WikiLeaks爆DNC(含Hillary) email出街前, 已經知道WikiLeaks會咁做:

A lot of people have asked me about whether Mr. Trump knew about the release of the hacked Democratic National Committee emails ahead of time. The answer is yes.

Trump直接同Stone講電話, 由Stone口中得知, 而Stone係同Trump講電話前, 先同Assange講完電話, 知道有批email準備出街

In July 2016, ......Mr. Stone told Mr. Trump that he had just gotten off the phone with Julian Assange and that Mr. Assange told Mr. Stone that, within a couple of days, there would be a massive dump of emails that would damage Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

之前係Stone案上面, 我總結個關係圖可以畫成

Trump Campaign <->Stone<->Wikileaks<->俄佬軍方hackers
or
Trump Campaign某高高高層<->高級成員Bannon<->Stone<->Person 1&2<->WikiLeaks<->俄佬軍方hackers

而依家按Cohen嘅證詞, 幅接觸關係圖可以再簡化為:

Trump <->Stone<->Assange(WikiLeaks)<->俄佬軍方hackers



有關Stone案周邊, 請refer #96

今日美朝會談好似連即時討論都冇

冇乜消息咁

Cohen呢篇證詞已經咁爆
聽日班議員仲會問到咩出黎呢