【波譎雲詭】國際時事政治選舉集中理性討論區
濕鳩塞鷗
1001 回覆
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BBC: 南非總統指Mugabe被軟禁在家
BBC: 南非總統指Mugabe被軟禁在家
抵死
做咗咁耐獨裁者嗱
Who are the key players in the Zimbabwe crisis?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/key-players-zimbabwe-crisis-171115112906373.html
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/key-players-zimbabwe-crisis-171115112906373.html
Who are the key players in the Zimbabwe crisis?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/key-players-zimbabwe-crisis-171115112906373.html
見到個網址就諗起係佢班阿拉伯兄弟杯葛下，呢粒西亞明珠卡塔爾半島電視台仲可以正常運作覺得太好啦
幾廿億買凱authenticity成疑嘅畫 
After 19 minutes of dueling, with four telephone bidders and one bidder in the room, Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi” sold on Wednesday night for $450.3 million with fees, shattering the record for any work of art sold at auction. It far surpassed Picasso’s “Women of Algiers,” which fetched $179.4 million at Christie’s in May 2015. The buyer was not immediately disclosed.
After 19 minutes of dueling, with four telephone bidders and one bidder in the room, Leonardo da Vinci’s “Salvator Mundi” sold on Wednesday night for $450.3 million with fees, shattering the record for any work of art sold at auction. It far surpassed Picasso’s “Women of Algiers,” which fetched $179.4 million at Christie’s in May 2015. The buyer was not immediately disclosed.
Who are the key players in the Zimbabwe crisis?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/key-players-zimbabwe-crisis-171115112906373.html
見到個網址就諗起係佢班阿拉伯兄弟杯葛下，呢粒西亞明珠卡塔爾半島電視台仲可以正常運作覺得太好啦
半島大把水喉，無咁易收皮
North Korea 'sentences Donald Trump to death' in state newspaper editorial
假才子:
津巴布韋政變與賭王爭產案
2017年11月16日
近年成為獨裁者摧毀國家經濟帶來民不聊生的典範的非洲國家津巴布韋 (另一典範為北韓)，昨日發生政變，首都街頭湧現大量坦克車和軍人，總統穆加貝 Robert Mugabe 據信被軍方軟禁在家。雖然軍方聲稱這不是政變，但除了政變實在想不到別的詞來形容。
今次政變的起因，相信是「果頭近」的穆加貝 (93) 上周炒了副總統 Emmerson Mnangagwa (75)，好讓自己的夫人 Grace Mugabe (52) 順利繼位，令副總統的盟友害怕相繼被清算。早兩日軍方司令 Constantino Chiwenga (61) 就召開記者會公開表明不滿，警告如總統繼續亂來清算「革命同志」(參加反英獨立者，包括副總統)，軍方不排除插手，變相預告發動政變。今次政變後軍方亦稱不是要推翻穆加貝，只是要清除他身邊的壞份子。
為何軍方不除掉穆加貝？一來穆加貝始終是合法總統，也是反英獨立領袖，殺他缺乏大義名分，二來雖然穆加貝在西方國家聲名狼籍，但跟非洲鄰國關係不錯 (始終很多都一樣是獨裁者)，殺掉他或引來國際介入，既然如此不如脅持他做傀儡，等他「香左」或退休讓己方合法地做總統。
事件令筆者聯想到早幾年的賭王爭產案，四房也是輪流脅持...保護賭王，並要他拍片向公眾說明自己一房才是正當的繼承人，當然也不能在此時讓賭王死掉否則就大鑊了。
所以筆者估計接下來津巴布韋軍方也會拍片證實穆加貝安全，表示己方行動為合法，撤去夫人一派的權力，然後就將穆加貝送入ICU讓他從外界眼前消失。
https://www.facebook.com/nonintellect/
津巴布韋政變與賭王爭產案
2017年11月16日
近年成為獨裁者摧毀國家經濟帶來民不聊生的典範的非洲國家津巴布韋 (另一典範為北韓)，昨日發生政變，首都街頭湧現大量坦克車和軍人，總統穆加貝 Robert Mugabe 據信被軍方軟禁在家。雖然軍方聲稱這不是政變，但除了政變實在想不到別的詞來形容。
今次政變的起因，相信是「果頭近」的穆加貝 (93) 上周炒了副總統 Emmerson Mnangagwa (75)，好讓自己的夫人 Grace Mugabe (52) 順利繼位，令副總統的盟友害怕相繼被清算。早兩日軍方司令 Constantino Chiwenga (61) 就召開記者會公開表明不滿，警告如總統繼續亂來清算「革命同志」(參加反英獨立者，包括副總統)，軍方不排除插手，變相預告發動政變。今次政變後軍方亦稱不是要推翻穆加貝，只是要清除他身邊的壞份子。
為何軍方不除掉穆加貝？一來穆加貝始終是合法總統，也是反英獨立領袖，殺他缺乏大義名分，二來雖然穆加貝在西方國家聲名狼籍，但跟非洲鄰國關係不錯 (始終很多都一樣是獨裁者)，殺掉他或引來國際介入，既然如此不如脅持他做傀儡，等他「香左」或退休讓己方合法地做總統。
事件令筆者聯想到早幾年的賭王爭產案，四房也是輪流脅持...保護賭王，並要他拍片向公眾說明自己一房才是正當的繼承人，當然也不能在此時讓賭王死掉否則就大鑊了。
所以筆者估計接下來津巴布韋軍方也會拍片證實穆加貝安全，表示己方行動為合法，撤去夫人一派的權力，然後就將穆加貝送入ICU讓他從外界眼前消失。
https://www.facebook.com/nonintellect/
Zimbabwe's best-known opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, has called on President Robert Mugabe to resign, as the country's military leaders continued their efforts to end the isolated strongman's decades-long rule. Tsvangirai, who had been receiving cancer treatment abroad, returned to Harare after the military took control In Harare and placed Mugabe under house arrest on Wednesday.
The political upheaval presents Tsvangirai with the best opportunity in years to influence the country's political future. A senior member of Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) party told CNN that talks were underway about a transitional government that includes the opposition were underway, and that Mugabe's exit was a "done deal."
But in public, Tsvangirai was less definitive, calling the military takeover "unconstitutional" and questioned whether a transitional government was even the right approach. "You can't force the change (of) government by any means other than by the ballot box," he told CNN after a press conference, in which he called for Mugabe to step down.
The political upheaval presents Tsvangirai with the best opportunity in years to influence the country's political future. A senior member of Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change (MDC-T) party told CNN that talks were underway about a transitional government that includes the opposition were underway, and that Mugabe's exit was a "done deal."
But in public, Tsvangirai was less definitive, calling the military takeover "unconstitutional" and questioned whether a transitional government was even the right approach. "You can't force the change (of) government by any means other than by the ballot box," he told CNN after a press conference, in which he called for Mugabe to step down.
美國Alabama係12月12日又會有另一場補選因為Jeff Sessions走咗去做美國司法部長。而Alabama呢個Senate位由1996年起就由Sessions呢個Republican保持住。
今次係由Roy Moore (R) 對 Doug Jones (D)，暫時依然由Moore領先，但係因為Moore的性醜聞，佢領先的優勢根據Real Clear Politics只有0.8，而FOX News的民調更指Jones 領先8點。
Alabama對Democrats而言係好難勝出，因為白人福音派人數甚多，高學歷及其他種相對較少。會改投其他政黨的選民十分少。因此Jones 只能夠期待郊區選民唔投票，而同時大勝位於城市的選區。
Republican而家瘋狂同Moore割席，Senate Majority Leader McConnell 同時希望Moore收皮，不過退選時間已過，有人建議write in，不過會益咗Democrats。而且Moore同時唔係一個合群的Republican，佢勝出對McConnell 真係幾頭痕
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
今次係由Roy Moore (R) 對 Doug Jones (D)，暫時依然由Moore領先，但係因為Moore的性醜聞，佢領先的優勢根據Real Clear Politics只有0.8，而FOX News的民調更指Jones 領先8點。
Alabama對Democrats而言係好難勝出，因為白人福音派人數甚多，高學歷及其他種相對較少。會改投其他政黨的選民十分少。因此Jones 只能夠期待郊區選民唔投票，而同時大勝位於城市的選區。
Republican而家瘋狂同Moore割席，Senate Majority Leader McConnell 同時希望Moore收皮，不過退選時間已過，有人建議write in，不過會益咗Democrats。而且Moore同時唔係一個合群的Republican，佢勝出對McConnell 真係幾頭痕
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
涉及性醜聞點只Republican，Minnesota的Sen. Al Franken (D) 都被一名女電台主持指被Al Franken胸襲同強吻，而且胸襲仲要有相為証。
不過Al Franken似乎冇辭職的想法，而且Demoracts 都好似冇諗過要佢辭職。
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-missed-a-chance-to-draw-a-line-in-the-sand-on-sexual-misconduct/
不過Al Franken似乎冇辭職的想法，而且Demoracts 都好似冇諗過要佢辭職。
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-missed-a-chance-to-draw-a-line-in-the-sand-on-sexual-misconduct/
真係無乜新人加入 
Zimbabwe's President Robert Mugabe has made his first public appearance since the country's army took over on Wednesday. He attended a graduation ceremony in the capital, Harare.
美國Alabama係12月12日又會有另一場補選因為Jeff Sessions走咗去做美國司法部長。而Alabama呢個Senate位由1996年起就由Sessions呢個Republican保持住。
今次係由Roy Moore (R) 對 Doug Jones (D)，暫時依然由Moore領先，但係因為Moore的性醜聞，佢領先的優勢根據Real Clear Politics只有0.8，而FOX News的民調更指Jones 領先8點。
Alabama對Democrats而言係好難勝出，因為白人福音派人數甚多，高學歷及其他種相對較少。會改投其他政黨的選民十分少。因此Jones 只能夠期待郊區選民唔投票，而同時大勝位於城市的選區。
Republican而家瘋狂同Moore割席，Senate Majority Leader McConnell 同時希望Moore收皮，不過退選時間已過，有人建議write in，不過會益咗Democrats。而且Moore同時唔係一個合群的Republican，佢勝出對McConnell 真係幾頭痕
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
巴打睇538，佢嚮舊年大選跟大隊，但係已經算錯得最少
Grace under fire: A first lady's ambition cut short
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/17/africa/grace-mugabe/index.html
http://edition.cnn.com/2017/11/17/africa/grace-mugabe/index.html
美國Alabama係12月12日又會有另一場補選因為Jeff Sessions走咗去做美國司法部長。而Alabama呢個Senate位由1996年起就由Sessions呢個Republican保持住。
今次係由Roy Moore (R) 對 Doug Jones (D)，暫時依然由Moore領先，但係因為Moore的性醜聞，佢領先的優勢根據Real Clear Politics只有0.8，而FOX News的民調更指Jones 領先8點。
Alabama對Democrats而言係好難勝出，因為白人福音派人數甚多，高學歷及其他種相對較少。會改投其他政黨的選民十分少。因此Jones 只能夠期待郊區選民唔投票，而同時大勝位於城市的選區。
Republican而家瘋狂同Moore割席，Senate Majority Leader McConnell 同時希望Moore收皮，不過退選時間已過，有人建議write in，不過會益咗Democrats。而且Moore同時唔係一個合群的Republican，佢勝出對McConnell 真係幾頭痕
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-roy-moore-could-lose-alabamas-senate-race/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
巴打睇538，佢嚮舊年大選跟大隊，但係已經算錯得最少
Nate Silver 總有睇的重要性，其實上次真係全部人錯晒，因為state的數據唔太準確，係侵侵之後已經改善咗。
同樣You Gov係Brexit都改咗民調條forumla，係之後May's Snap election 表現都好好
The Chinese connection to the Zimbabwe 'coup'
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/africa/china-zimbabwe-mugabe-diplomacy/index.html
http://www.cnn.com/2017/11/17/africa/china-zimbabwe-mugabe-diplomacy/index.html
真係無乜新人加入
個post係荷法德之後出，日本選舉毫無懸念，少人唔出奇，之後就係比較local的新聞，同時黎巴嫩，Zimbabwe 都冇咩香港人關心。
美國就係仲複雜的Tax Reform
下次開post可以加埋有咩國際新聞鬼page or website 值得睇，巴打絲打唔傾都可以知道係邊到搵料睇
巴打睇538，佢嚮舊年大選跟大隊，但係已經算錯得最少
Nate Silver 總有睇的重要性，其實上次真係全部人錯晒，因為state的數據唔太準確，係侵侵之後已經改善咗。
同樣You Gov係Brexit都改咗民調條forumla，係之後May's Snap election 表現都好好
Nate Silver之所以鶴立雞群，因為玩probability玩到出神入化，當年用同樣道理嚮poker table贏唔少
真係無乜新人加入
個post係荷法德之後出，日本選舉毫無懸念，少人唔出奇，之後就係比較local的新聞，同時黎巴嫩，Zimbabwe 都冇咩香港人關心。
美國就係仲複雜的Tax Reform
下次開post可以加埋有咩國際新聞鬼page or website 值得睇，巴打絲打唔傾都可以知道係邊到搵料睇
無錯因為選舉相對容易分析同代入，不過其實呢期中東發展先真係波譎雲詭，似乎只係更大變局嘅開端，之後可能推動板塊洗牌，甚至牽扯歐美地緣政治佈陣
巴打睇538，佢嚮舊年大選跟大隊，但係已經算錯得最少
Nate Silver 總有睇的重要性，其實上次真係全部人錯晒，因為state的數據唔太準確，係侵侵之後已經改善咗。
同樣You Gov係Brexit都改咗民調條forumla，係之後May's Snap election 表現都好好
Nate Silver之所以鶴立雞群，因為玩probability玩到出神入化，當年用同樣道理嚮poker table贏唔少
佢條友玩baseball fantasy 一樣搵唔少，典型痴線佬
