【波譎雲詭】國際時事政治選舉集中理性討論區
濕鳩塞鷗
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The leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah has declared that the country's prime minister is currently detained in Saudi Arabia and that his "forced" resignation is unconstitutional because it was done "under pressure".
BEIRUT, Lebanon — When the Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri made a sudden trip abroad last week, it was taken at first to be a routine visit with his political patron, Saudi Arabia. But the next day, he unexpectedly announced his resignation by video from Riyadh, the Saudi capital.
He has yet to return to Lebanon.
On Friday, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement, part of his governing coalition at home, charged that the Saudis were holding him against his will, while the Saudis have said they were protecting him from an unspecified assassination plot.
The Hariri case has become just one in a profusion of bewildering events — from the Saudi Arabia’s arrest of princes and wealthy businessmen last weekend to ordering its citizens out of Lebanon on Thursday — that are escalating tensions in the Middle East and fueling anxiety about whether the region is on the verge of military conflict.
The American secretary of state Rex W. Tillerson warned Friday “against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that country,” a message apparently aimed at Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Even before the events of the past week, analysts and officials in the region had been increasingly anxious about what they see as a volatile combination: an impulsive, youthful Saudi leader escalating threats to roll back growing Iranian influence, an equally impulsive Trump administration signaling broad agreement with Saudi policies, and increasingly pointed warnings from Israel that it may eventually fight another war with Hezbollah.
Now analysts and diplomats are scrambling to figure out what the latest developments mean, whether they are connected and whether, as some analysts fear, they are part of a buildup to a regional war.
Mr. Hariri, until he announced his resignation on Saturday, had shown no signs of planning to do so.
Hours later, on Saturday evening, a missile fired from Yemen came close to Riyadh before being shot down. Saudi Arabia later blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the missile, suggesting that they had aided the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen to fire it.
Before the world had a chance to absorb this news, the ambitious and aggressive Saudi Arabian crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the arrest of hundreds of Saudis — including 11 princes, government ministers and some of the kingdom’s most prominent businessmen — in what was either a crackdown on corruption, as Saudi officials put it, or a purge, as outside analysts have suggested.
It then emerged that the week before, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who has been sent on missions both to Israel and Saudi Arabia, had visited Riyadh on a previously undisclosed trip and met until the early morning hours with the crown prince. The White House has not announced what they discussed but officials privately said that they were meeting about the administration’s efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
On Monday, Saudi officials said they considered the missile from Yemen an act of war by Iran and Lebanon, and on Thursday the kingdom rattled Lebanon by ordering its citizens to evacuate.
No one expects Saudi Arabia, which is mired in a war in Yemen, to start another war itself. But Israel, which fought a war with Hezbollah in 2006, has expressed increasing concern about Hezbollah’s growing arsenal on its northern border.
On Friday, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said that Saudi Arabia had asked Israel to attack Lebanon, after essentially kidnapping Mr. Hariri.
“I’m not talking here about analysis, but information,” he said. “The Saudis asked Israel to attack Lebanon.”
He has yet to return to Lebanon.
On Friday, the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement, part of his governing coalition at home, charged that the Saudis were holding him against his will, while the Saudis have said they were protecting him from an unspecified assassination plot.
The Hariri case has become just one in a profusion of bewildering events — from the Saudi Arabia’s arrest of princes and wealthy businessmen last weekend to ordering its citizens out of Lebanon on Thursday — that are escalating tensions in the Middle East and fueling anxiety about whether the region is on the verge of military conflict.
The American secretary of state Rex W. Tillerson warned Friday “against any party, within or outside Lebanon, using Lebanon as a venue for proxy conflicts or in any manner contributing to instability in that country,” a message apparently aimed at Hezbollah, Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Even before the events of the past week, analysts and officials in the region had been increasingly anxious about what they see as a volatile combination: an impulsive, youthful Saudi leader escalating threats to roll back growing Iranian influence, an equally impulsive Trump administration signaling broad agreement with Saudi policies, and increasingly pointed warnings from Israel that it may eventually fight another war with Hezbollah.
Now analysts and diplomats are scrambling to figure out what the latest developments mean, whether they are connected and whether, as some analysts fear, they are part of a buildup to a regional war.
Mr. Hariri, until he announced his resignation on Saturday, had shown no signs of planning to do so.
Hours later, on Saturday evening, a missile fired from Yemen came close to Riyadh before being shot down. Saudi Arabia later blamed Iran and Hezbollah for the missile, suggesting that they had aided the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels in Yemen to fire it.
Before the world had a chance to absorb this news, the ambitious and aggressive Saudi Arabian crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, ordered the arrest of hundreds of Saudis — including 11 princes, government ministers and some of the kingdom’s most prominent businessmen — in what was either a crackdown on corruption, as Saudi officials put it, or a purge, as outside analysts have suggested.
It then emerged that the week before, Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and adviser, who has been sent on missions both to Israel and Saudi Arabia, had visited Riyadh on a previously undisclosed trip and met until the early morning hours with the crown prince. The White House has not announced what they discussed but officials privately said that they were meeting about the administration’s efforts to forge an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal.
On Monday, Saudi officials said they considered the missile from Yemen an act of war by Iran and Lebanon, and on Thursday the kingdom rattled Lebanon by ordering its citizens to evacuate.
No one expects Saudi Arabia, which is mired in a war in Yemen, to start another war itself. But Israel, which fought a war with Hezbollah in 2006, has expressed increasing concern about Hezbollah’s growing arsenal on its northern border.
On Friday, Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said that Saudi Arabia had asked Israel to attack Lebanon, after essentially kidnapping Mr. Hariri.
“I’m not talking here about analysis, but information,” he said. “The Saudis asked Israel to attack Lebanon.”
He provided no evidence of his claim, but Western and regional analysts have also said that, given all the confusing and unexpected events and unpredictable players, they could not entirely rule out such a scenario.
Israeli officials, however, have been publicly predicting another war with Hezbollah while also vowing to do all they can to postpone it.
“There are now those in the region who would like Israel to go to war with Hezbollah and fight a Saudi war to the last Israeli,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a Jerusalem-based analyst for International Crisis Group. “There is no interest in that here.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long considered Iran to be Israel’s foremost enemy, a potential nuclear threat as well as a strategic adversary seeking to convert postwar Syria into a staging ground for attacks against Israel or into a corridor to transfer missiles and other weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So Saudi Arabia’s stepped-up efforts to oppose Iranian influence in Lebanon drew measured applause in Jerusalem. But many Israelis fear that the aggressive actions by the Saudi crown prince could drag Israel into a war that it does not want.
Daniel Shapiro, a former United States ambassador to Israel, said that Israel and Saudi Arabia were pursuing similar goals at sharply different speeds and levels of proficiency.
“I’m not sure they’re aligned tactically,” he said in an interview. Prince Mohammed, he added, “seems very impatient to actually spark the confrontation.”
There are no signs of war preparations in Israel. The country is not mobilizing troops on its northern border or calling up reservists, and Mr. Netanyahu has given no indication that he sees a conflict as imminent.
Moreover, Israel’s war planners predict that the next war with Hezbollah may be catastrophic, particularly if it lasts more than a few days. Hezbollah now has more than 120,000 rockets and missiles, Israel estimates, enough to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses.
Many of them are long-range and accurate enough to bring down Tel Aviv high-rises, sink offshore gas platforms, knock out Ben-Gurion Airport or level landmark buildings across Israel.
Nor is Hezbollah necessarily hankering for battle with Israel, according to analysts who study the militant group closely. It is still fighting in Syria, where it has been backing the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and it is being drained by medical costs for wounded fighters and survivor benefits for the families of those killed, said Giora Eiland, a retired Israeli major general and former head of the country’s National Security Council.
“Hezbollah as an organization is in a very deep economic crisis today,” Mr. Eiland said. “But at the same time, the weaker they are, the more dependent they are on Iranian assistance — so they might have to comply with Iran’s instructions.”
But there have long been fears that now that the Syrian war — in which Hezbollah played a decisive role, gaining new influence, power and weapons — is almost over, Hezbollah’s enemies might seek to cut it down to size.
Mr. Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, implied Friday that its fight in Syria was nearly finished. If Saudi Arabia’s goal was to force Hezbollah to leave Syria, he said: “No problem. Our goal there has been achieved. It’s almost over anyway.”
Israeli officials, however, have been publicly predicting another war with Hezbollah while also vowing to do all they can to postpone it.
“There are now those in the region who would like Israel to go to war with Hezbollah and fight a Saudi war to the last Israeli,” said Ofer Zalzberg, a Jerusalem-based analyst for International Crisis Group. “There is no interest in that here.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long considered Iran to be Israel’s foremost enemy, a potential nuclear threat as well as a strategic adversary seeking to convert postwar Syria into a staging ground for attacks against Israel or into a corridor to transfer missiles and other weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So Saudi Arabia’s stepped-up efforts to oppose Iranian influence in Lebanon drew measured applause in Jerusalem. But many Israelis fear that the aggressive actions by the Saudi crown prince could drag Israel into a war that it does not want.
Daniel Shapiro, a former United States ambassador to Israel, said that Israel and Saudi Arabia were pursuing similar goals at sharply different speeds and levels of proficiency.
“I’m not sure they’re aligned tactically,” he said in an interview. Prince Mohammed, he added, “seems very impatient to actually spark the confrontation.”
There are no signs of war preparations in Israel. The country is not mobilizing troops on its northern border or calling up reservists, and Mr. Netanyahu has given no indication that he sees a conflict as imminent.
Moreover, Israel’s war planners predict that the next war with Hezbollah may be catastrophic, particularly if it lasts more than a few days. Hezbollah now has more than 120,000 rockets and missiles, Israel estimates, enough to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses.
Many of them are long-range and accurate enough to bring down Tel Aviv high-rises, sink offshore gas platforms, knock out Ben-Gurion Airport or level landmark buildings across Israel.
Nor is Hezbollah necessarily hankering for battle with Israel, according to analysts who study the militant group closely. It is still fighting in Syria, where it has been backing the government of President Bashar al-Assad, and it is being drained by medical costs for wounded fighters and survivor benefits for the families of those killed, said Giora Eiland, a retired Israeli major general and former head of the country’s National Security Council.
“Hezbollah as an organization is in a very deep economic crisis today,” Mr. Eiland said. “But at the same time, the weaker they are, the more dependent they are on Iranian assistance — so they might have to comply with Iran’s instructions.”
But there have long been fears that now that the Syrian war — in which Hezbollah played a decisive role, gaining new influence, power and weapons — is almost over, Hezbollah’s enemies might seek to cut it down to size.
Mr. Nasrallah, the Hezbollah leader, implied Friday that its fight in Syria was nearly finished. If Saudi Arabia’s goal was to force Hezbollah to leave Syria, he said: “No problem. Our goal there has been achieved. It’s almost over anyway.”
World leaders have sought to tamp down tensions.
President Emmanuel Macron of France left Saudi Arabia on Friday after a brief, last-minute meeting with the crown prince.
During the unexpected two-hour visit on Thursday, Mr. Macron “reiterated the importance France attaches to Lebanon’s stability, security, sovereignty and integrity,” his office said. He also discussed “the situation in Lebanon following the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri,” his office said, but provided no further details.
A group of countries and organizations interested in Lebanon’s stability met Friday with the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, and issued a statement expressing “concern regarding the situation and prevailing uncertainty in Lebanon” and calling for Lebanon to be “shielded from tensions in the region.”
The members of the group, the International Support Group for Lebanon — including the United Nations, Britain, China, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States, as well as the European Union and the Arab League — are not all on the same side of the issues at stake so the statement seemed to reflect broad international concern.
At a news conference in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, before the meeting, Mr. Macron said he did not share Saudi Arabia’s “very harsh opinions” of Iran.
Analysts say a new war in the region is unlikely but some have warned that the increased tensions could provoke an economic crisis or even start a war accidentally. Miscalculations have started wars before, as in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Experts caution that Israel is often only a mistake or two from being drawn into combat.
“It’s a dangerous situation now,” said Amos Harel, the military reporter for Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper. “It only takes one provocation, another reaction, and it can get all of a sudden completely out of control. And when you add the Saudis, who evidently want to attack Iran and are looking for action, it gets even more complicated.”
NYT
President Emmanuel Macron of France left Saudi Arabia on Friday after a brief, last-minute meeting with the crown prince.
During the unexpected two-hour visit on Thursday, Mr. Macron “reiterated the importance France attaches to Lebanon’s stability, security, sovereignty and integrity,” his office said. He also discussed “the situation in Lebanon following the resignation of Prime Minister Hariri,” his office said, but provided no further details.
A group of countries and organizations interested in Lebanon’s stability met Friday with the Lebanese president, Michel Aoun, and issued a statement expressing “concern regarding the situation and prevailing uncertainty in Lebanon” and calling for Lebanon to be “shielded from tensions in the region.”
The members of the group, the International Support Group for Lebanon — including the United Nations, Britain, China, France, Germany, Italy, Russia and the United States, as well as the European Union and the Arab League — are not all on the same side of the issues at stake so the statement seemed to reflect broad international concern.
At a news conference in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates, before the meeting, Mr. Macron said he did not share Saudi Arabia’s “very harsh opinions” of Iran.
Analysts say a new war in the region is unlikely but some have warned that the increased tensions could provoke an economic crisis or even start a war accidentally. Miscalculations have started wars before, as in the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.
Experts caution that Israel is often only a mistake or two from being drawn into combat.
“It’s a dangerous situation now,” said Amos Harel, the military reporter for Haaretz, the Israeli newspaper. “It only takes one provocation, another reaction, and it can get all of a sudden completely out of control. And when you add the Saudis, who evidently want to attack Iran and are looking for action, it gets even more complicated.”
NYT
Turnbull government MP John Alexander has resigned from Parliament after British authorities were unable to uncover any evidence to support repeated assurances he was not a dual citizen.
Mr Alexander's resignation - five days after Fairfax Media revealed he was likely a dual citizen by descent - will trigger a byelection in the former tennis champion's Sydney seat of Bennelong, and means Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has lost his parliamentary majority.
Minority Government
Mr Alexander's resignation - five days after Fairfax Media revealed he was likely a dual citizen by descent - will trigger a byelection in the former tennis champion's Sydney seat of Bennelong, and means Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has lost his parliamentary majority.
Minority Government
Joe Biden opens up: 'I regret that I am not president'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlJAulWrQtg
Vice President Joe Biden on Running for President in 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-lr3iO83RI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qlJAulWrQtg
Vice President Joe Biden on Running for President in 2020
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-lr3iO83RI
Joe Biden唔選上一屆真係晒咗
Joe Biden唔選上一屆真係晒咗
要俾面阿婆
Joe Biden唔選上一屆真係晒咗
要俾面阿婆
無計，不過再下一屆Biden年紀都好鬼大
希望阿派唔好再選
Joe Biden唔選上一屆真係晒咗
要俾面阿婆
無計，不過再下一屆Biden年紀都好鬼大
希望阿派唔好再選
Democrat就係缺乏一個好似GOP Paul Ryan之類既後起之秀
南韓媒體報導，原定11月11日至14日在朝鮮半島東部海域公海舉行，由3艘美海軍航空母艦為主的韓美日3國聯合軍演，已經改為美日、美韓各自聯合演訓。
南韓媒體引述南韓政府消息人士的分析指出，在南韓與中國就薩德反飛彈系統問題剛剛緩和，並決定舉行韓中高峰會談之際，南韓不願參與原先計劃的美日韓海上聯合軍事演習，應是為符合韓中先前達成「韓美日安保合作不會發展成軍事同盟」的協議，所採取的措施。
南韓「中央日報」今天報導，南韓政府消息人士透露，南韓不願參與原計劃的3艘航艦韓美日海軍聯合軍事演習。
南韓國防部發言人文尚均也明確表示：「南韓沒有參加韓美日3國聯合軍事演習的計畫。」但並未解釋理由。
南韓與中國於10月30日就紓緩薩德問題的矛盾達成共識，南韓似乎不願捲入與美、日、甚至印度聯手對抗中國大陸的策略。
南韓媒體引述南韓政府消息人士的分析指出，在南韓與中國就薩德反飛彈系統問題剛剛緩和，並決定舉行韓中高峰會談之際，南韓不願參與原先計劃的美日韓海上聯合軍事演習，應是為符合韓中先前達成「韓美日安保合作不會發展成軍事同盟」的協議，所採取的措施。
南韓「中央日報」今天報導，南韓政府消息人士透露，南韓不願參與原計劃的3艘航艦韓美日海軍聯合軍事演習。
南韓國防部發言人文尚均也明確表示：「南韓沒有參加韓美日3國聯合軍事演習的計畫。」但並未解釋理由。
南韓與中國於10月30日就紓緩薩德問題的矛盾達成共識，南韓似乎不願捲入與美、日、甚至印度聯手對抗中國大陸的策略。
中東局勢接近全面爆發
Bahrain calls pipeline blast 'terrorism' linked to Iran
Bahrain calls pipeline blast 'terrorism' linked to Iran
南韓媒體報導，原定11月11日至14日在朝鮮半島東部海域公海舉行，由3艘美海軍航空母艦為主的韓美日3國聯合軍演，已經改為美日、美韓各自聯合演訓。
南韓媒體引述南韓政府消息人士的分析指出，在南韓與中國就薩德反飛彈系統問題剛剛緩和，並決定舉行韓中高峰會談之際，南韓不願參與原先計劃的美日韓海上聯合軍事演習，應是為符合韓中先前達成「韓美日安保合作不會發展成軍事同盟」的協議，所採取的措施。
南韓「中央日報」今天報導，南韓政府消息人士透露，南韓不願參與原計劃的3艘航艦韓美日海軍聯合軍事演習。
南韓國防部發言人文尚均也明確表示：「南韓沒有參加韓美日3國聯合軍事演習的計畫。」但並未解釋理由。
南韓與中國於10月30日就紓緩薩德問題的矛盾達成共識，南韓似乎不願捲入與美、日、甚至印度聯手對抗中國大陸的策略。
韓國可唔可以大局為重呢
南韓媒體報導，原定11月11日至14日在朝鮮半島東部海域公海舉行，由3艘美海軍航空母艦為主的韓美日3國聯合軍演，已經改為美日、美韓各自聯合演訓。
南韓媒體引述南韓政府消息人士的分析指出，在南韓與中國就薩德反飛彈系統問題剛剛緩和，並決定舉行韓中高峰會談之際，南韓不願參與原先計劃的美日韓海上聯合軍事演習，應是為符合韓中先前達成「韓美日安保合作不會發展成軍事同盟」的協議，所採取的措施。
南韓「中央日報」今天報導，南韓政府消息人士透露，南韓不願參與原計劃的3艘航艦韓美日海軍聯合軍事演習。
南韓國防部發言人文尚均也明確表示：「南韓沒有參加韓美日3國聯合軍事演習的計畫。」但並未解釋理由。
南韓與中國於10月30日就紓緩薩德問題的矛盾達成共識，南韓似乎不願捲入與美、日、甚至印度聯手對抗中國大陸的策略。
韓國可唔可以大局為重呢
叫得左膠總統你估流㗎
南韓媒體報導，原定11月11日至14日在朝鮮半島東部海域公海舉行，由3艘美海軍航空母艦為主的韓美日3國聯合軍演，已經改為美日、美韓各自聯合演訓。
南韓媒體引述南韓政府消息人士的分析指出，在南韓與中國就薩德反飛彈系統問題剛剛緩和，並決定舉行韓中高峰會談之際，南韓不願參與原先計劃的美日韓海上聯合軍事演習，應是為符合韓中先前達成「韓美日安保合作不會發展成軍事同盟」的協議，所採取的措施。
南韓「中央日報」今天報導，南韓政府消息人士透露，南韓不願參與原計劃的3艘航艦韓美日海軍聯合軍事演習。
南韓國防部發言人文尚均也明確表示：「南韓沒有參加韓美日3國聯合軍事演習的計畫。」但並未解釋理由。
南韓與中國於10月30日就紓緩薩德問題的矛盾達成共識，南韓似乎不願捲入與美、日、甚至印度聯手對抗中國大陸的策略。
韓國可唔可以大局為重呢
叫得左膠總統你估流㗎
朴婦個陣咪又係一樣咁鍾意講慰安婦
仲整個銅像出黎添
仲有如果文在寅都叫左, 咁trump簡直係托派
願聞其詳
APEC》宋楚瑜與川普握手寒暄 和習近平友善互動
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1151224
宋楚瑜會晤安倍 雙方盼經濟關係更上層樓
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2251182
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/focus/paper/1151224
宋楚瑜會晤安倍 雙方盼經濟關係更上層樓
http://news.ltn.com.tw/news/politics/breakingnews/2251182
Joe Biden唔選上一屆真係晒咗
要俾面阿婆
無計，不過再下一屆Biden年紀都好鬼大
希望阿派唔好再選
Democrat就係缺乏一個好似GOP Paul Ryan之類既後起之秀
Kamala Harris 呢
望落profile爭一截喎
Forty Conservative MPs ready to oust May - Sunday Times
London Mayor Sadiq Khan called on Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson on Sunday to resign after a series of gaffes which he said had offended Libyans, Americans, the Spanish and others.
Forty Conservative MPs ready to oust May - Sunday Times
仲差八個就可以開始競選黨魁程序
歐盟剛剛先叫May姐快手clarify 掟煲費點計