Prophecy 價值投資組合分享及討論
Prophecy
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lm學野
主力發掘市帳率低於1 公司
Book value
下次提出質疑前可先研究名單內的股票。
你派膠公仔內所含恥笑book value 內可能包含goodwill 等intangible asset 或其他難以轉化為市場價值或以歷史成本作計價等問題我想是但一個曾讀會計有基本知識的人都知道
pb 低於1只用作一種篩選法我想了解價值投資既人應該會了解而不用多講解。 所以開頭已講希望同有價值投資有了解的手足作平台分享。
1638 會唔會去3蚊？
1638 我當自爆左
指？會total loss?
當初諗住等融創收購後我就散水.....
你呢D根本唔係價值投資
Agree 搏收購根本係投機...
巴菲特在信中詳細說明早期的三大投資操作，每個人都可以學習、複製：
低估型投資：用質化與量化條件尋找價值被嚴重低估的公司，在股價偏低的時候買進，漲回實質價值時賣出。
套利型投資：尋找併購交易公開但尚未完成的公司，以低風險的方式進行穩賺不賠的套利。
控制型投資：利用資產負債表來計算公司價值，在股價偏低時取得公司控股權，要求經營高層改造企業，實現企業價值。
呢個課題可以討論一個月都傾唔完
套利型投資：尋找併購交易公開但尚未完成的公司，以低風險的方式進行穩賺不賠的套利。
唔係想challenge你 但見你之前個幾版個d收購都未公開 咁其實係投機
Warren講個d係例如BRK前年公布左收購PCP 個陣入貨arbitrage食差價先係佢講呢種
Btw 其實就算公布左都會有risk e.g. 拎唔到regulatory approval
1638 會唔會去3蚊？
1638 我當自爆左
指？會total loss?
當初諗住等融創收購後我就散水.....
你呢D根本唔係價值投資
Agree 搏收購根本係投機...
巴菲特在信中詳細說明早期的三大投資操作，每個人都可以學習、複製：
低估型投資：用質化與量化條件尋找價值被嚴重低估的公司，在股價偏低的時候買進，漲回實質價值時賣出。
套利型投資：尋找併購交易公開但尚未完成的公司，以低風險的方式進行穩賺不賠的套利。
控制型投資：利用資產負債表來計算公司價值，在股價偏低時取得公司控股權，要求經營高層改造企業，實現企業價值。
呢個課題可以討論一個月都傾唔完
套利型投資：尋找併購交易公開但尚未完成的公司，以低風險的方式進行穩賺不賠的套利。
唔係想challenge你 但見你之前個幾版個d收購都未公開 咁其實係投機
Warren講個d係例如BRK前年公布左收購PCP 個陣入貨arbitrage食差價先係佢講呢種
Btw 其實就算公布左都會有risk e.g. 拎唔到regulatory approval
不是。你翻查佳兆業當時已公佈。
仲有所以我買都係大幅折讓股票 無供股 背景正常
我理念係有晒防禦力，大折讓， 分散投資，就算賣唔倒盤我只損失時間值，只看待賣盤為catalyst.
你可再深思一次投機投資分別。
如果有人用pb5 買入一隻等賣盤股，我會定義為投機，因為只要失敗而沒有分散投資下，股票不防禦力會big loss.
workout 於巴菲特早期做partnership 時信中有詳細提及，
But what many people don’t know is that Buffett often engaged in some very short-term investing, especially in his early partnership days.
He called this type of investing “workouts”.
Workouts, also sometimes called “special situations,” includes things such as merger arbitrage, spinoffs, carveouts, and reorganizations.
Here’s what Warren Buffett had to say about workouts from his 1964 letter.
Workouts – These are securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity – sell outs, mergers, reorganizations, spinoffs etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or “inside information” pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc.
The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. It’s a little like looking for parking meters with some time left on them. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent average annual rates of return after allowance for the occasional substantial loss. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline it should usually pile up a big edge for us; during bull market it will probably be a drag on performance. On the long term basis, I expect the workouts to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.
But what many people don’t know is that Buffett often engaged in some very short-term investing, especially in his early partnership days.
He called this type of investing “workouts”.
Workouts, also sometimes called “special situations,” includes things such as merger arbitrage, spinoffs, carveouts, and reorganizations.
Here’s what Warren Buffett had to say about workouts from his 1964 letter.
Workouts – These are securities with a timetable. They arise from corporate activity – sell outs, mergers, reorganizations, spinoffs etc. In this category we are not talking about rumors or “inside information” pertaining to such developments, but to publicly announced activities of this sort. We wait until we can read it in the paper. The risk pertains not primarily to general market behavior (although that is sometimes tied in to a degree), but instead to something upsetting the applecart so that the expected development does not materialize. Such killjoys could include anti-trust or other negative government action, stockholder disapproval, withholding of tax rulings, etc.
The gross profits in many workouts appear quite small. It’s a little like looking for parking meters with some time left on them. However, the predictability coupled with a short holding period produces quite decent average annual rates of return after allowance for the occasional substantial loss. This category produces more steady absolute profits from year to year than generals do. In years of market decline it should usually pile up a big edge for us; during bull market it will probably be a drag on performance. On the long term basis, I expect the workouts to achieve the same sort of margin over the Dow attained by generals.
Joel Greenblatt wrote one of my favorite books called You Can Be a Stock Market Genius where he expertly describes in detail (case studies included) many of the types of these special situations. A special situation, generally defined, is a stock with some sort of corporate catalyst such as a spinoff, reorganization, or merger. Greenblatt made 40% annual returns for 20 years using the techniques he describes in that book.
重點不在用邊種形式釋放價值。 提高派息/博收購/私有化等等
只在乎你有無認真分析，去除風險（價格上，股東背景上等） 再配合catalyst 縮窄價格 - 價值
重點不在用邊種形式釋放價值。 提高派息/博收購/私有化等等
只在乎你有無認真分析，去除風險（價格上，股東背景上等） 再配合catalyst 縮窄價格 - 價值
連登有好多股票撚 你點買點定義唔岩佢心水就會話鳩你
同佢地講都哂氣
好聲好氣同佢講仲串柒柒
同佢地講都哂氣
好聲好氣同佢講仲串柒柒
大家拎隻股票做案例討論下回報風險，唔好再討論太多定義之類，對大家都有益。
投資定投機自行作定論吧
投資定投機自行作定論吧
留名
btw 有咩書推薦俾新手？淨係睇過Peter Lynch D 書。
你對Peter Lynch 有咩睇法？
btw 有咩書推薦俾新手？淨係睇過Peter Lynch D 書。
你對Peter Lynch 有咩睇法？
out 127
in 122
今天最後一次分享。
5/31 完結。
如有手足想留contact 可再傾
in 122
今天最後一次分享。
5/31 完結。
如有手足想留contact 可再傾
out 127
in 122
今天最後一次分享。
5/31 完結。
如有手足想留contact 可再傾
122仲慢慢跌
除左DCF
仲有冇簡單粗略方法計內在價值？
仲有冇簡單粗略方法計內在價值？
out 127
in 122
今天最後一次分享。
5/31 完結。
如有手足想留contact 可再傾
可交換tg嗎 BiBii1234
29/4/2017
股票 股票名稱 股數 股價 市值 比重
0026.HK 中華汽車 1,800 104.80 188,640 15.6%
0113.HK 迪生創建 37,000 2.78 102,860 8.5%
0122.HK 鱷魚裇 80,000 1.06 84,780 7.0%
0127.HK 華人置業 7,000 11.96 83,720 6.9%
0368.HK 中外運航運 68,000 1.75 119,000 9.9%
0684.HK 亞倫國際 30,000 2.01 60,300 5.0%
0859.HK 鎮科集團 52,000 1.28 66,560 5.5%
0889.HK 連達科技 56,000 1.35 75,600 6.3%
1133.HK 哈爾濱電氣 18,000 4.76 85,680 7.1%
1293.HK 寶信汽車 135 3.60 486 0.0%
1638.HK 佳兆業集團 20,000 2.33 46,600 3.9%
2788.HK 精熙國際 148,000 1.18 174,640 14.5%
3828.HK 明輝國際 70,000 1.20 84,000 7.0%
現金 NA NA 33,165 5.1%
Total 1,206,051
368 1638 比較受大市影響, 仍等待機會套現
1133 仍會持有, 價錢偏低, 繼續等混改
26
859 食詐糊, 不過仍覺得會賣盤, 會繼續持有
26, 122 都係唔錯嘅長線投資
1638 如果真係今年做到400億turnover , 股價應該有所刺激, 但要考慮其負債
另外, 我覺得216 建業實業都係唔錯嘅選擇
1) 預計8月會完成出售廣州土地
2) 年尾深圳同重慶物業裝修完成, 出租收入每年不少於3億, 即每股約0.7~0.8, 相對每股股價3.9x , 增加的租金收入並不少
3) 股價折讓大, 現係係3.9x 買 9.8x 資產, 而大部分資產為投資出租物業, 防守力唔錯
4) 由於深圳同重慶寫字樓入賬, 2017/18盈喜將會令市場留意建業
股息不吸引和成交少係其缺點
有錯請指正
留名
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So 9 Sad