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星期六日 lihkg 好似青山特赦咁, 仲衰過平日日頭
C.Smalling2018-09-15 10:51:17
快d卷隻眼出嚟
一直等TY2018-09-15 10:51:19
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有村架純bb豬😘2018-09-15 10:51:31
虛假塑膠樹
米分糸工女乃豆頁2018-09-15 10:51:40
有冇list
專業奶媽2018-09-15 10:51:48
昕昕2018-09-15 10:51:50
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有村架純bb豬😘2018-09-15 10:51:52
一言堂?
Sunny@SNSD2018-09-15 10:52:10
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講到好似咁就冇人性咁撚樣
偽學術膠
地精科學主任堅豎2018-09-15 10:52:22
WDPN31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 211 NM NORTH
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LARGE CYCLONE NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS
BEEN SERIOUSLY DEGRADED BY ITS PASSAGE OVER LUZON. DESPITE THAT IT
REMAINS AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC
OBSERVATIONS FROM ACTIVE REPORTING STATIONS ON THE ISLAND. THE
PASSAGE OVER LUZON SIGNIFICANTLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE, MAKING THE INTENSITY DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE. THEREFORE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY, WHICH IS ASSESSED
AT 115 KNOTS, USING THE RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T6.0 (115 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, WITH
MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) IS 27-29 CELSIUS. TY 26W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO STEER
TY 26W ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXPECT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION
IN THE SCS AND RAPID WEAKENING AFTER MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH OF HONG
KONG AROUND TAU 36. FULL DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED ABOVE THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE BECAUSE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MODERATELY FAVORABLE THROUGH
TAU 36. SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS 175 NM AT TAU 72, THEREFORE
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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