[統計分析] 強烈建議大家第三針打復必泰

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機電工程署 2022-03-03 15:39:44

三針打復必泰都中左，防都冇得防

但願心間光點結聚 2022-03-03 15:50:32

你了解咗死亡證係點寫先

https://www.facebook.com/muk.lam/posts/10158297047746496

最近常有人吐槽「為甚麼打疫苗後死亡與疫苗無關，但帶著covid病毒死去就是因covid造成」，在此回應。
1. 死亡證: 為甚麼帶著covid病毒死去就是因covid造成

在香港，死亡證明上要寫死因，有直接死因(a項)，也有間接死因(b項及c項)。假設一位40歲無長期病患者因心臟病發而猝死，那他的直接死因就是「心臟病發」。心臟病發與死亡有時序關係，而在此案例中，我們找不到其他解釋他死亡的原因，所以心臟病發是死因。

grace kelly在楂車時心臟病發，出車禍後死亡。我不清楚詳細，假設她心臟病發時馬上心臟停頓，陳屍駕駛座上，然後出車禍，那直接死因就是心臟病發。反之，若果她心臟病發後只是失去意識或胸痛，但因車禍的外傷而死，那直接死因就是車禍。

假設一位100歲的失智老人因covid肺炎死亡，那他的直接死因是covid，間接死因則是失智/高齡。如果没有染上covid，他大概不會馬上死亡。當然，以他的年齡，死亡是自然的人生歷程，covid肺炎不過一個誘因，就算没有covid，他也會在不久的將來因其他感染過世。所以他的間接死因還應該加上失智。

這個例子中的老人是die of covid還是die with covid，是有討論空間的。covid引起各國政府重視的原因，不只是因為它攻擊老人，還因為它的確造成不少過往健康的壯年人「没有其他原因解釋」的死亡，使受covid肆虐的國家的壯年死亡率比往年上升。

香港醫院內部有不少病菌爆發，最新爆發的是Candida Auris，它是人類皮膚菌落，普通人沾上没大問題，但一旦需要長年插胃喉/尿喉的長期病患沾上，這種惡菌便有可能沿異物進入人體，造成尿道炎或細菌入血。政府醫院對這種細菌嚴陣以待，花了很多資源去圍堵它，但普羅市民幾乎没怎麼聽說過它，因為它不會影響壯年人口。

很可惜，COVID會影響壯年人口。我們都希望所有患上COVID過世的是高齡老人，是DIE WITH COVID而不是DIE OF COVID，但我們需要觀察。

食蜂操祈(ミレイ) 2022-03-03 15:53:04

Sera were randomly selected from two previously studied cohorts to investigate the immunogenicity of two doses10 or booster doses11 of COVID-19 vaccines. The first study had sera collected 3–5 weeks after the second dose of CoronaVac (28 d between the first and second dose) or BNT162b2 vaccine (21 d between first and second dose)10. The second cohort had sera collected 3–5 weeks after booster vaccination of individuals vaccinated with CoronaVac who were given a third dose of CoronaVac (the interval between the second and third vaccine dose was 61–160 d; 17 of them were also included in the previous two-dose CoronaVac study) or BNT162b2 (interval between the second and third vaccine dose was 51–141 d; 9 of them were also included in the previous two-dose CoronaVac study)11. A third group consisted of individuals vaccinated with BNT162b2 receiving a third dose of BNT162b2 (180–234 d after the second dose; 4 of them were included in the previous two-dose BNT162b2 study) with serum collected 3–5 weeks after the third vaccine dose. None of these individuals had a previous history of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed with negative IgG to SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain antibody15 in the prefirst vaccine dose serum.

其實正常Paper嘅Methodology一定有寫
不過有冇人睇完先9up係另一回事

source:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-022-01704-7#Sec2

但願心間光點結聚 2022-03-03 15:54:02

香港老人家接種率特別低
而且仲要打科興

紐西蘭嘅情況同香港情況類似，都係長期零確診然後近排爆
但係點解人地死亡率基本上無上升
因爲人地老人家打晒針

https://twitter.com/InfectiousDz/status/1499091943044919302

Hong Kong has more who are elderly and fewer who are vaccinated than in New Zealand. It's the elderly who die from COVID. As Omicron spread in HK, vaccine hesitancy has led to vaccination rates among those aged 70-79 and 80-plus to be just 63.1% and 34.2%
https://cnbc.com/2022/02/10/hong-kong-vaccination-rates-spike-as-outbreak-shatters-covid-free-dreams.html

Meanwhile in New Zealand, vaccination rates in the elderly are over 95% https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-vaccine-data

RichardHanson 2022-03-03 16:11:03

3~5 weeks 姐係同第一二支一樣啦過多幾個月咪又係drop