(如果tldr,可以直接睇最後兩段)
聯儲局加到sufficiently restrictive就會停止加息,而唔係等通脹回落到2%先會停止加息。至於幾時先開始減息?一係等聯儲局真係確信會回落到2%,或者就業市場真係好差先會減息。
減息太遙遠而家唔講住,講咗幾時停止加息先。
關於加息加到幾多先停,關鍵字係real rates are positive across the entire yield curve。
聯儲局第三號人物、紐約聯儲銀行行長John Williams喺舊年8月接受Nick Timraos採訪嗰陣提過最好利率比通脹率高0.5%。
Williams didn't specifically say where he'd like to see rates go. But he did note that he believes reducing inflation will require real interest rates — nominal levels minus inflation — to be positive.
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/feds-williams-says-rates-will-stay-high-for-a-while-11661875583
https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/transcript-wsj-q-a-with-new-york-fed-president-john-williams-11661885347
之後依個概念亦多次喺FOMC記者會出現。
2022年9月Nick問加到幾多先停,鮑威爾回答You want to be at a place where real rates are positive across the entire yield curve.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20220921.pdf
2022月11月另一個記者問放慢加息速度,鮑威爾回答佢會用real rates across the yield curve嚟判斷利率係咪sufficiently restrictive。
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20221102.pdf
2023年2月FOMC記者會Nick又問鮑威爾應該加到幾多,鮑威爾回答當real rates are positive across yield curve,就代表利率係restrictive。
https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20230201.pdf
Real rates計算方法係nominal rate減expected inflation,例如將10年債息減10年預期通脹率。
對於yield curve最左面(最短期)嘅部分,亦都可以比較actual inflation同fed funds rate (FFR)
例如而家FFR係4.75-5.00%,而家Core PCE 4.71% PCE 5.38% Core CPI 5.53% CPI 5.99%,多個通脹指標仍然高過FFR。(雖然聯儲局最主要係睇core PCE,不過其他指標佢地都會參考,唔係機械人咁只係睇一樣嘢)
由於舊年嘅激進加息開始見效、住屋成本預計5月見頂、3月同6月嘅基數效應,以上4個通脹指標喺未來幾個月就會全部回落到5%以下。除咗Core CPI,另外幾個指標喺Q3-Q4有較大希望回落到4%以下。
一旦利率高過通脹率(最好利率比通脹率高0.5%),雖然仍然未回到2%,但係聯儲局都比較能夠接受。
結論係我相信加埋3月或者5月就會停。之後通脹會唔會順利回落到2%?唔知,但即使唔順利,只要通脹率唔係太高(3-4%?),仍然低過fed funds rate,聯儲局大可以選擇唔減息,而唔一定要選擇進一步加息。
具體啲嚟講,如果今年年底通脹率由3%上升返去3.3%,係咪代表Fed要加到6%呢?我認為無依個迫切性。