國際時事政治選舉集中理性討論區（三）

5 scenarios for Italy’s next government

https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-government-5-scenarios-after-messy-election/

1) Right-center
The leader of the League, Matteo Salvini, said Monday that his center-right coalition with former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia had won Sunday’s election and should form the next government. He ruled out what he called “weird alliances” with other political forces.

2) 5Stars-League
This would be the government of the real winners, the League in the North and 5Star Movement in the South. But Salvini once again ruled out such an alliance with the anti-establishment movement, which could put in danger the pact the League has in with the center right in key Northern regions (Lombardy, Veneto and Liguria) and in many local authorities. At the same time, if Salvini teamed up with the 5Stars, he would be the junior partner rather than the head of the government.

3) 5Stars and the Left
During the campaign, the leader of the Democratic Party, former prime minister Renzi, often ruled out any alliance with the 5 Stars. His reported resignation on Monday, however, would give the center left some room to maneuver.

4) Short-term government
If there is a stalemate, Italian President Sergio Mattarella has the option of appointing a short-term government, whose limited scope for action would mainly entail approving the budget for this year and changing the electoral law to avoid another hung parliament. Vetoes among parties could force such a scenario.

5) Grand coalition
As Italians headed to the polls Sunday, Germany’s Social Democrats were busy approving a new ‘grand coalition’ with Angela Merkel’s conservatives — a result that had looked well nigh impossible immediately after September’s German election.

M 6.7 - 113km SW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea
2018-03-06 14:13:09 UTC
6.304°S 142.609°E
33.1 km depth

啱啱新鮮滾熱鬧大餘震
出面無post討論唯有覆呢到

After Park, former South Korean President Lee summoned over bribery allegations

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-southkorea-politics-corruption/after-park-former-south-korean-president-lee-summoned-over-bribery-allegations-idUSKCN1GI0HX

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korean prosecutors have called former President Lee Myung-bak to appear for questioning over allegations he took bribes when in office, a prosecutor said on Tuesday in the latest top-level political corruption scandal to rock the country.

Lee was asked to present himself for questioning on March 14, the senior prosecutor said.

“We must question (Lee) to reveal the truth”, the prosecutor told reporters.

“We expect him to show up since we gave sufficient time for him to prepare for the questioning”.

Lee has denied any wrongdoing, calling the investigation into the bribery allegations, summoning his family and confidants and raiding their homes and offices, politically motivated.

Why are there two Congos?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yA4uvWhvmHw

講點解中非會有兩個剛果，同時DRC的選舉問題都係中非一個極為難解的問題

英文媒體仲未有報導，震央33.1 km算唔算深，未知會有幾大破壞

上次睇第一批人道救援會係周未抵達

M 6.7 - 112km SW of Porgera, Papua New Guinea
2018-03-06 14:13:08 UTC
6.298°S 142.611°E
22.9 km depth

修正左做22.9km，不過23km定33km都係淺層，淺過6.0果次既10km少少咁解，所以拉勻破壞力係勁過上次 不過傷亡如何就要睇下今次會唔會又山泥埋唔知邊條村 果邊好似係深夜

BTW上面剛果段片竟然有提PNG
點解我覺得兩個剛果個英文名咁似南北韓個英文名

Cohn resigns from White House

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/377051-cohn-resigns-from-white-house

Gary Cohn, President Trump's top economic adviser, is resigning amid growing rifts over the direction of the administration’s economic policy.

Cohn, director of the White House's National Economic Council, said he was stepping down on Tuesday after weeks of speculation that he and Trump were moving farther apart on trade policy.

The relationship between Cohn and the president seemed to be coming apart in the past couple of weeks with Trump insisting on steep steel and aluminum tariffs, a move Cohn opposed and had spent the better part of the past year trying to stop.

Cohn's departure comes amid a tumultuous time at the White House, which has been stung by several high-level departures, including communications director Hope Hicks, staff secretary Rob Porter and adviser Reed Cordish.

At least 18 killed as second earthquake strikes Papua New Guinea

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-papua-quake/at-least-18-killed-as-second-earthquake-strikes-papua-new-guinea-idUSKCN1GI0FA

SYDNEY (Reuters) - At least 18 people were killed by a magnitude 6.7 quake that struck Papua New Guinea’s mountainous Southern Highlands early Wednesday, an official said, adding to the death toll from a larger quake last week.

The tremor, shortly after midnight local time, struck just 31 km (19 miles) southwest of the epicenter of a magnitude 7.5 quake that flattened villages and caused landslides last Monday, killing at least 55 people.

It was the most severe of a series of aftershocks that have rattled the resource-rich region, about 600 km (370 miles) northwest of the capital Port Moresby, complicating efforts to provide aid to nearly 150,000 people in need of emergency supplies.

“I have just received reports that 18 people were killed last night,” William Bando, Hela Province administrator told Reuters.

Trump calls North Korea 'sincere' on possible nuclear talks, others skeptical

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-northkorea-missiles-southkorea/trump-calls-north-korea-sincere-on-possible-nuclear-talks-others-skeptical-idUSKBN1GH3BX

WASHINGTON/SEOUL (Reuters) - Feeling the pressure of sanctions, North Korea seems “sincere” in its apparent willingness to halt nuclear tests if it held denuclearization talks with the United States, President Donald Trump said on Tuesday as U.S., South Korean and Japanese officials voiced skepticism about any discussions.

Trump declined to say whether he had any preconditions for talks with Pyongyang as officials in the United States, South Korea, Japan and China responded with caution and guarded optimism to the possibility following months of insults and threats of war between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

A senior Trump administration official said, “We are open minded, we look forward to hearing more. But ... the North Koreans have earned our skepticism, so we’re a bit guarded in our optimism.” The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said “our posture toward the regime will not change until we see credible moves toward denuclearization.”

Australia and East Timor sign historic maritime border deal

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-43296488?

Australia and East Timor have signed a historic treaty on a permanent maritime border in the Timor Sea.

The deal ends a decade-long dispute between the neighbours over rights to the sea's rich oil and gas reserves. East Timor, one of the world's poorest nations, will now gain the majority of any future revenue.

The countries signed the deal at the UN headquarters in New York, after negotiations in the international court of arbitration.

UN Secretary General António Guterres praised the "vision and determination" of both nations in achieving the agreement.

After East Timor, also known as Timor-Leste, gained independence from Indonesia in 2002, no permanent maritime boundary was established between Australia and the new nation. Instead, the two sides agreed on a temporary boundary, but East Timor later argued that deal had been unfairly forced upon them.

The new deal means East Timor will receive at least 70% of the largest oil field, Greater Sunrise, which is worth an estimated $40bn (£28bn; A$51bn). Previously, revenue was to be split evenly between the countries.

Trump administration goes on offense, sues California over sanctuary laws

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/03/06/trump-california-sanctuary-laws-443835?

After more than a year on defense against a flurry of legal challenges to President Donald Trump’s immigration policies, the Justice Department went on offense Tuesday, filing a suit against the State of California that alleges obstruction of federal immigration enforcement.

Filed in federal court in Sacramento, the lawsuit targets three sanctuary-focused laws that the California Legislature passed last year. Each was passed as part of a backlash against Trump’s vows to step up immigration enforcement.

The litigation is modeled on a lawsuit the Obama administration filed in 2010 against a controversial state law in Arizona that sought to crack down on illegal immigrants, SB 1070. That case resulted in a Supreme Court ruling finding that some provisions of the Arizona law unconstitutionally intruded into Congress’ right to set federal immigration policy.

The new suit seeks a preliminary injunction against three specific California laws, claiming that they violate the Constitution’s supremacy clause, which limits states’ ability to legislate in areas reserved to Congress or where Congress has sought to play a controlling role.

Another Bush

George P. Bush wins primary in Texas

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/377110-george-p-bush-wins-primary-in-texas

George P. Bush, Texas’s current land commissioner, has won his GOP primary race outright, fending off a tough challenge from a former office holder and avoiding a runoff.

Bush bested former land commissioner Jerry Patterson with help from a late endorsement from President Trump. The Associated Press projected him the outright winner shortly after 10 p.m. Central Time when he had about 58 percent of the vote.

Patterson spent the final days of the race blasting Bush for a lack of campaign appearances and questioning his management of the historic Alamo site. But those attacks ultimately couldn’t stop Bush, son of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, from being crowned the GOP primary winner.

America don’t need another bush

Australian prime minister rules out early election as ratings slump

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia-politics/australian-prime-minister-rules-out-early-election-as-ratings-slump-idUSKCN1GJ02U

MELBOURNE (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull on Wednesday ruled out an early election, as his popularity ratings slump following a sex scandal between his deputy and a staffer.

Turnbull’s conservative coalition has trailed the opposition Labor Party in 28 straight Newspolls, published by The Australian newspaper, while his standing as preferred prime minister has dropped to its slimmest lead over Labor leader Bill Shorten.

“The election will be next year, I can assure you. There is no plan, intention or consideration given to doing anything other than having an election at the usual time, which will be in the first half of 2019,” Turnbull said at a business summit in Sydney.

His popularity has fallen amid criticism over his handling of an affair between former deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce and a member of Joyce’s staff.

'Significant' consequences if China takes key port in Djibouti: U.S. general

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-china-djibouti/significant-consequences-if-china-takes-key-port-in-djibouti-u-s-general-idUSKCN1GI2V0

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The top U.S. general for Africa told lawmakers on Tuesday that the American military could face “significant” consequences should China take a key port in Djibouti, as Beijing becomes increasingly muscular in Africa in an effort to expand its influence.

Marine General Thomas Waldhauser, the top U.S. military commander overseeing troops in Africa, said that if China placed restrictions on the port’s use, it could affect resupplying the U.S. base in Djibouti and the ability of Navy ships to refuel there.

“If the Chinese took over that port, then the consequences could be significant,” Waldhauser said during the House of Representatives Armed Services Committee hearing.

Djibouti hosts a vital U.S. military base that is home to about 4,000 personnel, including special operations forces, and is a launchpad for operations in Yemen and Somalia.

May's Brexit red lines will damage UK economy, EU trade guidelines say
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/07/uks-brexit-red-lines-will-limit-depth-of-future-trade-deal-eu-guidelines?

The EU is offering a free-trade deal that will be economically damaging to the UK and has ruled out a series of demands made by Theresa May, a document on the bloc’s vision of the future relationship reveals.

The prime minister’s red lines limit what Brussels can offer the UK, the paper says, and in return for even a limited free-trade agreement the British government will have to sign up to a commitment not to become a low-tax, low-regulation state undercutting the EU model.

The guidelines further warn that Brussels will not push on with negotiations on trade until May signs up to a legal text that translates all the commitments made by the UK government in the first phase of negotiations, including on avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland.

May has refused to accept the EU’s draft withdrawal agreement as it suggests Northern Ireland may need to effectively stay in the customs union and single market.

The EU’s opening position on the trade talks says: “Negotiations can only progress as long as all commitments undertaken so far are respected in full, and calls for intensified efforts on the remaining withdrawal issues. The European council reiterates that nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”

The Memo: Republicans fret over Cohn’s exit

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/377312-the-memo-republicans-fret-over-cohns-exit

Lawmakers and other experts are worried about the former Goldman Sachs executive’s departure, fearing it removes one of the more seasoned and realistic voices from Trump’s orbit.

One veteran of former President George W. Bush’s administration, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said of Cohn: “He’s a forceful personality, and even if he is replaced with a free trader, it may not be a free trader who is comfortable standing up to someone like Trump. It’s hard to find someone with both the physical fortitude and a global perspective. That’s the challenge.”

Anxiety is also rising in the business community, according to Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, a professor at the Yale School of Management.

“The long and short of it is that Gary Cohn was one of the rare, truly pragmatic non-ideologues that was revered by the business community and had an extraordinarily calming effect on the business community,” Sonnenfeld said. “Relative to much of the team around him, he held his ego very much in check.”

The populists around Trump had long been suspicious of Cohn. Their skepticism was rooted not only in his status as a registered Democrat, but in the belief that he differed fundamentally from the “America First” worldview that got Trump elected.

Ex-Russian spy poisoned by nerve agent, police say

http://www.dw.com/en/ex-russian-spy-poisoned-by-nerve-agent-police-say/a-42869784

Police said a very rare nerve agent was suspected to be behind the poisoning of a former Russian spy and his daughter, which has prompted speculation of Moscow's involvement.

Police said on Wednesday that they were investigating the incident as an "attempted murder."

"This is being treated as a major incident involving attempted murder by administration of a nerve agent," Metropolitan Police assistant commissioner Mark Rowley said in a statement. "I can also confirm that we believe the two people originally who became unwell were targeted specifically."

Moscow has denied any involvement and blamed anti-Russian bias from the media and politicians for trying to harm relations between the two countries.

"It's very hard not to assess this as provocative black PR designed to complicate relations between our two countries," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Wednesday.

Iran sentences woman to two years in jail for removing headscarf in public

http://www.dw.com/en/iran-sentences-woman-to-two-years-in-jail-for-removing-headscarf-in-public/a-42877964

A court in Iran sentenced a woman to two years in prison for removing her headscarf in public, the judiciary announced on Wednesday. She did so while taking part in protests against the country's compulsory requirement for women to cover their hair in public.

Since December, many women have begun removing their headscarves and waving them like flags from sticks on streets across the country. At least 30 women have been arrested and detained since the protests began.

Tehran Public Prosecutor Abbas Jafar Dolatabadi said that infractions against the law would be dealt with "firmly." He cited the fact that the woman had "encouraged moral corruption" as the reason for the stiff sentence.


The woman reportedly showed no remorse for her actions, trying instead to convince the judge that the law was wrong. She plans to appeal to verdict.

11 Pacific nations to sign regional trade deal — without US

http://www.dw.com/en/11-pacific-nations-to-sign-regional-trade-deal-without-us/a-42858248

Representatives of 11 nations are gathering in the Chilean capital of Santiago on Thursday to sign a regional free trade agreement that has been strongly championed by Japan since the United States decided to withdraw from the pact shortly after Donald Trump entered the White House.

After Washington's exit — a decision that some have described as possibly the turning point in US global leadership — Tokyo took up the baton and most of 2017 was spent reaching consensus on the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPATPP) between the remaining states on a broad range of trade and investment issues.

Analysts suggest, however, that the US would be welcomed with open arms should Trump or the administration that succeeds him indicate a willingness to once again be involved. And they add that as well as serving as a powerful trade deal, CPATPP is also an important security arrangement. And that is a critically important component for Japan as it warily watches the economic and military growth of its great regional rival, China.

The immediate problem for the 11 nations who will form the CPATPP is that Trump appears intent on a confrontational approach to international trade, as demonstrated by his administration's plans for imposing tariffs on steel and other imports to the US, which fly in the face of the very concept of free trade, Kingston pointed out.

According to the terms of the deal, the 11 member states — Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Mexico, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam — will still have veto power over others joining, meaning that larger countries, such as China and India, can still be excluded even if they meet membership criteria.

White House Defends Tariffs That Some Nations May Still Escape

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-03-07/trump-team-defend-steel-tariffs-downplay-effect-on-u-s-growth

The U.S. may exempt countries from the duties based on national security considerations, White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders said Wednesday. She didn’t elaborate on how those determinations would be made and didn’t answer when asked which countries would qualify.

“There are potential carve outs for Canada and Mexico based on national security and possibly other countries as well. That would be a case-by-case and country-by-country basis,” Sanders told reporters at the White House.

China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi vowed a “justified and necessary response” to any efforts to incite a trade war, saying it would hurt both the actor as well as the intended target. Wang, speaking at a news briefing on the sidelines of the National People’s Congress in Beijing Thursday, urged the U.S. to work with China on a mutually beneficial solution.

Deflecting the criticism, Trump hinted on Wednesday that his restrictions on trade could run even deeper, citing China’s alleged theft of intellectual property. The U.S. is said to be considering clamping down on Chinese investment and imposing tariffs on a broad range of goods to punish Beijing over unfair intellectual-property practices as part of an ongoing U.S. investigation ordered by Trump.

女權去哂邊

Sri Lanka 'on the brink' amid fresh anti-Muslim violence

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/03/sri-lanka-brink-fresh-anti-muslim-violence-180307203031915.html

Ambatenna, Sri Lanka - The Sinhalese Buddhist mob came by the hundreds, screaming at the top of their lungs and carrying sticks, stones and petrol bombs, as they descended on the hill town of Ambatenna in central Sri Lanka on Wednesday.

Some two dozen policemen and soldiers watched helplessly, according to residents, as the mob vandalised and set fire to Muslim homes and businesses in the town's Welekada area.

The mob, which witnesses said was between 200 and 500-strong, overran Welekada defying a curfew and a state of emergency imposed by President Maithiripala Sirisena a day earlier to quell anti-Muslim riots that began in the highland district of Kandy over the weekend.

In Welekada, rioters vandalised at least 15 houses belonging to Sri Lanka's Muslim minority and a mosque, residents told Al Jazeera. Four of the buildings and several vehicles were also torched.

The attacks have raised fears of a return to conflict and instability in Sri Lanka, less than a decade after the South Asian island nation ended a bloody civil war with Tamil separatists.

AfD regional leader Andre Poggenburg resigns following anti-Turkish speech

http://www.dw.com/en/afd-regional-leader-andre-poggenburg-resigns-following-anti-turkish-speech/a-42882995

The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party announced Thursday that a high-profile regional leader will resign from his post at the end of March.

Andre Poggenburg is the head of the party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. He prompted an outcry in mid-February after describing people of Turkish origin in Germany as "camel drivers" and "caraway seed traders" in a speech to AfD supporters.

Notoriety: In his speech, Poggenburg was responding to Turkish-German community leaders who had objected to government plans to include the word "Heimat" in the official name of the Interior Ministry. Poggenburg dismissed media criticism against him as a "smear campaign."

The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt has been plagued by internal disagreements and power struggles in the past year. Three lawmakers left the AfD in the Saxony-Anhalt parliament in 2017 in response to what they said was a "swing to the right" within the regional party.

US will temporarily exempt Canada and Mexico from tariffs: reports

http://www.dw.com/en/us-will-temporarily-exempt-canada-and-mexico-from-tariffs-reports/a-42878621

The White House announced on Wednesday that steel and aluminum from some countries could be exempted from the tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump. The Washington Post and Reuters news agency later confirmed that Canada and Mexico would recieve a 30-day exemption. The announcement represents a reversal to Trump's previous pledge of imposing the tariffs without exceptions.

The move comes after a week of sharp reactions to the president's tariff plan from congressional Republicans, the US Chamber of Commerce and US allies across the world.

White House Press secretary Sarah Huckabee Sanders said earlier on Wednesday that the potential exemptions would be made on a "case by case" and "country by country" basis. "There are potential carve-outs for Mexico and Canada based on national security and possibly other countries as well, based on that process," Sanders explained.

Trump is expected to sign the presidential proclamation establishing the tariffs during a ceremony scheduled at 3:30 PM local time (2030 GMT) on Thursday, according to a White House source.