最有價值收息股研究所 @ 21
加藤惠_
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2 Dislike
1號仔唔聲唔聲就到50蚊
佢出個RESULT MAKE SENSE好多
The likelihood of GLP calling the GLPSP 4.5% perpetual bond at its next call date on 16 May 2026 is generally considered low, based on several factors:
The bond is currently trading significantly below par (around 50–60 cents on the dollar), implying a very high yield to call and making it costly for GLP to redeem at the call price of 100. This price discount signals market skepticism about an early call.
Corporate perpetual bonds are typically called when issuers can refinance at cheaper spreads or when there is a significant coupon step-up. The GLPSP 4.5% perp bond’s coupon resets to 5-year US Treasury plus 3.735% in May 2026, but the absence of a large step-up reduces the incentive to call.
Research on perpetual bonds in Asia shows that most issuers call their bonds at the first call date to save on funding costs, but this is usually when new bonds can be issued at significantly lower spreads. If the credit spread compression reverses or refinancing is expensive, issuers may choose not to call. GLP’s bond does not currently fit the profile of likely call candidates.
GLP has other refinancing initiatives underway (e.g., tender offers for other bonds), but the 4.5% perp’s market conditions and pricing suggest it is unlikely to be called imminently.
Analysts note that missed calls are possible especially during market corrections or when refinancing costs are unfavorable, which aligns with the current market pricing of this bond.
Summary
While perpetual bonds generally tend to be called at the first call date if refinancing is cheaper, the GLPSP 4.5% perpetual bond’s current deep discount and coupon reset terms make an early call unlikely. Market pricing and credit research suggest the probability of call on 16 May 2026 is low, barring a significant tightening in credit spreads or a change in GLP’s refinancing strategy.
Thus, the call is considered quite unlikely but not impossible, with market conditions and issuer incentives currently not favoring a call.
The likelihood of GLP calling the GLPSP 4.5% perpetual bond at its next call date on 16 May 2026 is generally considered low, based on several factors:
The bond is currently trading significantly below par (around 50–60 cents on the dollar), implying a very high yield to call and making it costly for GLP to redeem at the call price of 100. This price discount signals market skepticism about an early call.
Corporate perpetual bonds are typically called when issuers can refinance at cheaper spreads or when there is a significant coupon step-up. The GLPSP 4.5% perp bond’s coupon resets to 5-year US Treasury plus 3.735% in May 2026, but the absence of a large step-up reduces the incentive to call.
Research on perpetual bonds in Asia shows that most issuers call their bonds at the first call date to save on funding costs, but this is usually when new bonds can be issued at significantly lower spreads. If the credit spread compression reverses or refinancing is expensive, issuers may choose not to call. GLP’s bond does not currently fit the profile of likely call candidates.
GLP has other refinancing initiatives underway (e.g., tender offers for other bonds), but the 4.5% perp’s market conditions and pricing suggest it is unlikely to be called imminently.
Analysts note that missed calls are possible especially during market corrections or when refinancing costs are unfavorable, which aligns with the current market pricing of this bond.
Summary
While perpetual bonds generally tend to be called at the first call date if refinancing is cheaper, the GLPSP 4.5% perpetual bond’s current deep discount and coupon reset terms make an early call unlikely. Market pricing and credit research suggest the probability of call on 16 May 2026 is low, barring a significant tightening in credit spreads or a change in GLP’s refinancing strategy.
Thus, the call is considered quite unlikely but not impossible, with market conditions and issuer incentives currently not favoring a call.
Based on available forecasts and market data:
The current 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is about 3.99% as of mid-June 2025.
Forecast data from the Financial Forecast Center and other models suggest the 5-year Treasury yield is expected to gradually decline over the next year, reaching around 2.4% to 3.0% by late 2025.
Extrapolating this trend to May 17, 2026, the 5-year Treasury yield is likely to be in the range of approximately 2.5% to 3.5%, depending on inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic conditions.
Market consensus and futures prices imply a moderate decline or stabilization near this range rather than a sharp rise.
Thus, a reasonable predicted 5-year U.S. Treasury rate on 17 May 2026 would be around 3.0% ± 0.5%.
The current 5-year U.S. Treasury yield is about 3.99% as of mid-June 2025.
Forecast data from the Financial Forecast Center and other models suggest the 5-year Treasury yield is expected to gradually decline over the next year, reaching around 2.4% to 3.0% by late 2025.
Extrapolating this trend to May 17, 2026, the 5-year Treasury yield is likely to be in the range of approximately 2.5% to 3.5%, depending on inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and economic conditions.
Market consensus and futures prices imply a moderate decline or stabilization near this range rather than a sharp rise.
Thus, a reasonable predicted 5-year U.S. Treasury rate on 17 May 2026 would be around 3.0% ± 0.5%.
reaching around 2.4% to 3.0% by late 2025.
Extrapolating this trend to May 17, 2026, the 5-year Treasury yield is likely to be in the range of approximately 2.5% to 3.5%,
睇睇下呢到好似有問題
Extrapolating this trend to May 17, 2026, the 5-year Treasury yield is likely to be in the range of approximately 2.5% to 3.5%,
睇睇下呢到好似有問題
是但啦
問米啫.
問米啫.
如果upper bound 係3.0% by late 2025.
咁點解26年年中會有機會3.5%
咁點解26年年中會有機會3.5%
睇得明師兄講咩
但係佢又唔係百分百矛盾
一句話25年前3%封頂
一句話26年5月後2.4到3%跳動
似馬評、股評總有啲啲中
但係佢又唔係百分百矛盾
一句話25年前3%封頂
一句話26年5月後2.4到3%跳動
似馬評、股評總有啲啲中
打錯字
不過係個樣野
不過係個樣野
The fund management business, I think we will see partners up and running.
I think that's one point that we can say.
There's a lot of legal restriction for us to say a lot more.
Let us under-promise and over-deliver.
But what I can say is, compared to past meetings that we have, we have completed totally all.
All the infrastructure set up, from documents to fund accounting systems, reporting, setting up the FM board, having the investment committee constituted, everything's done.
So we are ready and it is in progress, but I don't think we can say a lot more than that.
I think that's one point that we can say.
There's a lot of legal restriction for us to say a lot more.
Let us under-promise and over-deliver.
But what I can say is, compared to past meetings that we have, we have completed totally all.
All the infrastructure set up, from documents to fund accounting systems, reporting, setting up the FM board, having the investment committee constituted, everything's done.
So we are ready and it is in progress, but I don't think we can say a lot more than that.
邊個係佢親信 
宋生
宋生
BX 做到嘅野
BAM 都做到
所以 BX 無優勢？
BAM 都做到
所以 BX 無優勢？
向同類targeted customers賣同樣嘅products
優勢唔敢話無，但無tsmc對比smic、或者Google對比其他adtech對手咁明顯啫
Marketing buzzword同講到好有特色嘅pitch deck
間間firms都識做
但回歸根本，講到好好聽肯出更大比例去align interest
另一個角度就係講咗幾年嘅搬knowhow去日本新加坡用得返唔sell得
市好咗十幾廿年養成荷蘭病
結果同一套出到去根本行唔順
好似日本咁，人哋玩開traditional lease
無得企硬加10%趕個客走
新加坡大把屋村商場同街市
但唔會有地主好似香港咁駛錢執？
咁點解無？商業社會係咁有so人哋自己一早做咗
真係等Link入嚟教精坡佬架佬咩
優勢唔敢話無，但無tsmc對比smic、或者Google對比其他adtech對手咁明顯啫
Marketing buzzword同講到好有特色嘅pitch deck
間間firms都識做
但回歸根本，講到好好聽肯出更大比例去align interest
另一個角度就係講咗幾年嘅搬knowhow去日本新加坡用得返唔sell得
市好咗十幾廿年養成荷蘭病
結果同一套出到去根本行唔順
好似日本咁，人哋玩開traditional lease
無得企硬加10%趕個客走
新加坡大把屋村商場同街市
但唔會有地主好似香港咁駛錢執？
咁點解無？商業社會係咁有so人哋自己一早做咗
真係等Link入嚟教精坡佬架佬咩
下 佢之前做貝萊德
咩親信 講緊邊個
咩親信 講緊邊個
新加坡無人做緊, sure?
你話搬過去唔 work, 但啱啱條數又出到喎
加幅 好過晒SG 同期 同業
無人做緊，所以823唔會掂
有人做緊，所以823唔會掂
你話搬過去唔 work, 但啱啱條數又出到喎
加幅 好過晒SG 同期 同業
無人做緊，所以823唔會掂
有人做緊，所以823唔會掂
突發，湖人賣盤
道奇接埋
17號準備過湖人 二刀流
17號準備過湖人 二刀流
用用下唔係好掂，佢好似聽唔明我講乜咁
成日用舊data,叫佢update完
再分析個時又用舊data
on9
成日用舊data,叫佢update完
再分析個時又用舊data
on9
不如試吓唔好人哋唔認同你就起弶
先用返你例子嘅BAM同BX
同樣產品同類客戶，優勢喺邊
BAM deck會寫自己有埋operating arm所以有expertise
但早幾年高價買沙田工中單deal
成個portfolio計蝕唔入肉，但係咪有operating arm
就真係會買得準啲、或者value add做得好啲
我好有保留
返到去823，加幅好過市場average
喺823角度，我pitch一定大sell特sell呢點
反之站喺buyside角度，第一句就會Q係咪規模大咗都keep到先
如果IRR高少少，但uncertainties更大
作為LP何不保守啲
先用返你例子嘅BAM同BX
同樣產品同類客戶，優勢喺邊
BAM deck會寫自己有埋operating arm所以有expertise
但早幾年高價買沙田工中單deal
成個portfolio計蝕唔入肉，但係咪有operating arm
就真係會買得準啲、或者value add做得好啲
我好有保留
返到去823，加幅好過市場average
喺823角度，我pitch一定大sell特sell呢點
反之站喺buyside角度，第一句就會Q係咪規模大咗都keep到先
如果IRR高少少，但uncertainties更大
作為LP何不保守啲
Circle到底係雞棚較係革命
你話： SG 無人做， 因為唔好做 （唔存在 所以係唔會做得起）
我話 有人做緊 （823 以外）
我話 823 做到個加幅 好過 平均值
你話我起弶？
大佬你講嘅野 推論唔到落去喎
我話 有人做緊 （823 以外）
我話 823 做到個加幅 好過 平均值
你話我起弶？
大佬你講嘅野 推論唔到落去喎
似係堅
愈升愈有
一隻823可以有咁多話題
百業之母
好過死post
搵d野討論下先叫討論區
同埋可以引d功課
搵d野討論下先叫討論區
同埋可以引d功課