中美北京貿易談判簡況

中美北京貿易談判簡況

5月3日同4日，美國由財政部長、商務部長、美國貿易代表、白宮國家經濟委員會主任、貿易顧問、美國駐華大使、白宮國家經濟委員會幕僚組成既超豪華代表團黎到北京，同中國進行貿易談判，而中國既代表就由副總理劉鶴帶隊。

首先我地睇睇現況，美國對華出口，就三大項：

飛機：16.3%
大豆：12.4%
汽車：10.6%

而中國對美出口，都係三大項：

電子：26.9%
家具玩具：12%
紡織品：9%



我地再睇睇，華爾街日報5月4日公佈既談判框架，標題為：

Balancing the Trade Relationship between the United States of America and the People’s Republic of China

除左D客氣野，之後就開始單刀直入

There is an immediate need for the United States and China to reduce the U.S. trade deficit with China by ensuring that China’s market is open to United States traders and investors on a fair and non-discriminatory basis.
需要立即減少美國對中國的貿易赤字，確保中國市場在公平和非歧視的基礎上，對美國的出口商和投資者開放。

簡單D，就係：

1. 減少貿易赤字
2. 中國市場開放

關於中美貿易逆差點解會咁高，有3樣客觀事實，大家需要先搞清楚：

1. 美國禁止對中國出口高科技產品
2. 美國設計既晶片，好多都係台積電同三星生產，而呢D晶片經韓國台灣出口去中國，呢D出口無計落美國到
3. 美國出口中國既電子產品，主要係Apple, Dell, HP呢D牌子，佢地多半係美國做好原件，運去中國裝配，賣翻比中國，利潤落左美國公司袋，但就無計入去雙方既進出口帳

Section1 TRADE DEFICIT REDUCTION
減少貿易赤字

China commits to work with Chinese importers to engage in trade transactions to achieve targets to which the Parties agree
中國承諾和中國進口商一起促進進口，來滿足中美達成的協議

These transactions are specifically designed to reduce the United States-China trade deficit by $100 billion in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2018,
從2018年6月1日開始的12個月以內，中國需要減少1000億美元的對美貿易順差

and an additional $100 billion in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2019, such that the U.S. trade deficit with China will have decreased compared to 2018 by at least $200 billion by the end of 2020.
從2019年6月1日開始，中國繼續在12個月以內減少第二個1000億美元的對美貿易順差，也就是到2020年底共計減少2000億美元的順差

China’s purchase of U.S. goods will represent at least 75% of China’s commitment to a $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports for the twelve months beginning June 1, 2018, and at least 50% of China’s commitment to an additional $100 billion increase in purchases of U.S. exports in the twelve (12) months beginning June 1, 2019.
從2018年6月1日-2019年5月31日新增進口1000 億美元中，至少75%是購買美國商品；中國承諾，自2019 年6 月1 日開始的第二個1000 億美元，至少50%是購買美國商品。

美國要求中國2年內要買多2000億美元既美國貨，2017年美國出口中國先得1303.7億美元，假若要達到美國目標，2019年就要進口2300億美元，2020年就要進口3300億美元，而且前題仲係中國出口美國唔會增加

中國達到呢個數字，一係就殺左大半既中國農民，再同美國進口農產品，一係以後唔再係其它地方進口石油天然氣，通通同美國買，一係就叫美國直接將所有商品加價，除左呢D方法之外，現實上係無乜可能達得成

或者簡單D，學清朝咁，直接賠款應該實際少少

中國出口順差總共先得4225.4億美元，對美國少2000億美元等如將中國50%出口順差完全Write Off，呢一點對中國既外匯儲備金，同埋經濟帶黎重大打擊

SECTION 2 PROTECTION OF AMERICAN TECHNOLOGY AND INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
中國的法律，法規，實踐和行為損害了美國知識產權，創新和技術進步

(a) China immediately will cease providing market-distorting subsidies and other types of government support that can contribute to the creation or maintenance of excess capacity in the industries targeted by the Made in China 2025 industrial plan
中國立即停止對中國製造2025扭曲市場的補貼和其他形式的政府支持，因為這樣可能會造成這些行業產能過剩

中國製造2025係國家計劃，美國就要中國取消呢個計劃

好多產業，都係資金密集，假若無政府支持或銀行放水，根本做唔起黎

攞晶片黎講，而家中國網上面既主流聲音就係，樓價太高，做晶片人工太低，D人買唔起樓，又無社會地位，人材走哂去金融 Internet搵快錢，再無傻仔留係個Lab到做R&D，所以中國晶片落後美國

按而家中國晶片公司既賺錢能力，根本無乜財力再去加R&D人工，去吸引人材口流，靠既就係政府放水，假若中國真係為左適應美國要求，而取消中國製造2025，就注定中國永遠只係二流工業國家，永世翻唔到身

(b) by January 1, 2019, China will eliminate specified policies and practices with respect to technology transfer;
截至 2019 年 1 月 1 日，中國將消除有關技術轉讓的特定政策和做法

(c) China will take immediate, verifiable steps to ensure the cessation of Chinese government conducted, Chinese government-sponsored, and Chinese government-tolerated cyber intrusions into U.S. commercial networks and cyber-enabled theft targeting intellectual property, trade secrets and confidential business information held by U.S.companies;
中國立即採取可驗證的手段，確保停止中國政府指揮，贊助和默許的，入侵美國公司商業網絡，並通過網絡攻擊盜取美國公司知識產權，商業機密和貿易機密的行為

(d) China will strengthen specifiedintellectual property rights protection and enforcement;
中國將加強知識產權保護和執法力度

(e) by January 1, 2019, China will eliminate the provisions of the Regulations on the Administration of the Import and Export of Technologies and the Regulations on the Implementation of the Law on Chinese-Foreign Equity Joint Ventures identified in the U.S. request for WTO consultations in China – Certain Measures Concerning the Protection of Intellectual Property Rights (DS542)
到2019年1月，中國取消對技術進出口管理的相關規定，同時取消關於執行中外合資企業法中的條款的規定，這些規定美國曾提出在WTO和中國磋商，目的是為了保護知識產權

(f)by July 1, 2018, China will withdraw its request for WTO consultations in United States – Tariff Measures on Certain Goods from China (DS543) and will take no further action related to this matter under the WTO Understanding on Rules and Procedures Governing the Settlement of Disputes (“DSU”). In addition,China will not take any retaliatory action, whether in the form of tariffs on imports of U.S. products or in any other form, including unwarranted sanitary and phytosanitary (“SPS”) measures, unwarranted technical barriers to trade(“TBT”) measures, anti dumpting and countervailing duties, and discriminatory inspection, quarantine and testing practices directed at imports of U.S. agricultural products, in response to actions taken or to be taken by the United States,including any new U.S. restrictions on investments or imports. China immediately will cease all retaliatory actions currently being pursued. China agrees to immediately cease the targeting of American technology and intellectual property through cyber operations, economic espionage,counterfeiting, and piracy. China also agrees to abide by U.S. export control laws.
2018年7月1日，中國撤回在WTO要求和美國就從中國進口商品徵收關稅進行磋商的要求，同時中國不再在WTO的規定框架和條款下對美方採取更多行動。

除此之外，對美國新提出的限制進口和限制中國投資措施，

中國不能以各種手段對美方進行報復，包括對美方進口商品徵收關稅，以及對美國進口的農產品採取不必要的衛生和植物檢驗措施，設置不必要的技術性貿易壁壘，進行反傾銷反補貼調查，以及歧視性的檢查，檢疫和測試等等。

中國立即停止現有正在計劃中的報復行為，同時中國同意立即停止對美國技術和知識產權的網絡竊取，經濟間諜，仿製和盜取。

中國同意遵守美國的出口管制法律。

以上既全部都有得傾，對中國同美國都無爭議點，相信達成共識既，就係呢幾點

唔偷技術根本做唔到2025，呢樣都好大獲，仲要每季俾美帝檢討

戰敗國係咁上下

支持美帝

中國快D用對台灣,香港的霸氣回應

一拍兩散

正皮完先睇

SECTION 3 RESTRICTIONS ON INVESTMENT INSENSITIVE TECHNOLOGY
對敏感技術的投資限制

In light of China’s prevailing investment restrictions and state-directed investment in sensitive U.S. technology sectors, including industrial plans such as Made in China 2025, China confirms that it will not oppose, challenge, or otherwise retaliate against the United States’ imposition of restrictions on investments from China in sensitive U.S.technology sectors or sectors critical to U.S. national security
按照中國盛行的投資管制和國家導向的對美國敏感技術的收購，包括中國製造2025計劃，中國確認不會對美國限制中國投資事關美國國家安全的敏感技術領域的行為進行報復。

美國都醒，繼續以國家安全理由，唔對中國出口高科技產品，仲要聲明中國唔好搞報複

SECTION 4 UNITED STATES INVESTMENT IN CHINA
美國在中國的投資

China recognizes that China should notdistort trade through investment restrictions, and that any investmentrestrictions or conditions imposed by China must be narrow and transparent.

U.S. investors in China must be afforded fair, effective and non-discriminatory market access and treatment, including removal of the application of foreign investment restrictions and foreign ownership/shareholding requirements. In furtherance of these principles, China will issue an improved nationwide negative list for foreign investment by July 1, 2018. Within ninety (90) days of the date on which China issues this negative list, the United States will identify existing investment restrictions that deny U.S. investors fair, effective and non-discriminatory market access and treatment. Following receipt of the U.S. list of identified restrictions, China is to act expeditiously to remove all identified investment restrictions on a timetable to be decided by the United States and China.

中國要認識到中國不能通過投資限制來扭曲正常貿易關係，中國任何有關投資的限制和條件都必須限定範圍並且實現透明化。

在中國的美國投資者需要能夠擁有公平有效，不被歧視的獲得市場准入，包括去除針對外資的各種投資申請限制，外資企業股權比例和所有權要求，中國需要在2018年7月1日發布改進後的全國范圍內的負面清單，美國將在90天內清查出目前已有的，對美國投資者獲取公平有效和非歧視市場准入待遇不利的投資限制條款，中國需要在收到美方提出的這些條款後，根據中美約定的時間表進行清除

除左已經宣佈既金融、汽車行業開放之外，而家美國係迫中國加快能源、資源、基礎建設、交通運輸、商貿物流、專業服務呢D市場全面開放

而呢D Sector，往往係由國企，或者自己友壟斷發財，而家美國就要求玩埋一份

SECTION 5 TARIFF AND NON-TARIFF BARRIERS
關稅和非關稅壁壘

China’s tariffs and non-tariff barriers are significantly higher than those of the United States for most tradable goods.China commits to address U.S. concerns relating to tariffs and non-tariff barriers as follows: (a) by July 1, 2020, China will reduce its tariffs on all products in non-critical sectors to levels that are no higher than the levels of the United States’ corresponding tariffs; and (b) China will remove specified non-tariff barriers. China also recognizes that the United States may impose import restrictions and tariffs on products in critical sectors, including sectors identified in the Made in China 2025 industrial plan.
中國的關稅和非關稅壁壘顯著的美國同類商品，中國承諾根據美方關切做以下

(a) 到2020年7月1日，中國把所有非關鍵領域的產品關稅降到和美國同等的水平。
(b) 中國去除特定的非關稅壁壘，中國同時認識到美國可能對關鍵領域產品實施進口限制和關稅壁壘，包括中國製造2025年的內容。

呢點對中國不利，但中國必須要受

美國提議雙方對關鍵產品可以收關稅，原因美國想針對中國製造2025所涉及既產品收關稅，當然中國都可以向美國高科技產品收關稅，但假若中國對美國晶片收關稅既話，中國根本同唔到第二個買晶片，中興就係好例子

SECTION 6 UNITED STATES SERVICES AND SERVICES SUPPLIERS
美國服務和服務提供商

In order to achieve fair treatment with respect to U.S. services and services suppliers, China commits to improve access to its market in specified ways.
中國承諾對美國服務和服務提供商擴大市場開放

SECTION 7 UNITED STATES AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS
美國農產品

In order to achieve fair treatment with respect to U.S. agricultural products, China commits to improve access to its market in specified ways.
中國承諾對美國農產品擴大市場開放

以上都對中美雙方無爭議點，又係達成共識位

美國要求完全合理

痴線 唔比政府資助呢d高科技產業 不如叫d中國人返返一百幾年前去美國採礦 做苦力拿條命幫美國佬起鐵路. 中國如果同意呢d賣國條款. 下面d人造反都似.

我覺得後幾點合理不過，但係美國佬自己都興農業補貼
前幾點支那一係同你博命，一係就陽奉陰違

每季review,仲想出術

SECTION 8 IMPLEMENTATION
執行

China and the United States will meet quarterly to review progress in meeting agreed targets and reforms.
中美每季度開會討論協議執行情況

In the event that the United States considers that China fails to comply with any of China’s commitments in this Framework, including deficit targets, China acknowledges the likelihood that the United States will impose additional tariffs or other import restrictions on Chinese products, or on the supply of services or investment, to such extent as the United States deems appropriate. China also understands that it will not oppose, challenge or take any form of action against the United States’imposition of additional tariffs or restrictions pursuant to this paragraph,including action pursuant to the DSU.
如果美國認為中方沒有能夠履行框架的承諾，包括赤字目標，中國認可美國將會採取額外的關稅或者其他針對中國商品的進口限制措施，或者對中國投資和服務進行限制。

中國同時不會採取反對，挑戰或者其他任何形式的行為反對美國根據本段內容附加的關稅和其他限制措施，同時中國不會在WTO發起貿易爭端申訴。

主動權完全係美國到，中國完全被動，呢個係潛在爭議點

China will withdraw its WTO complaints regarding designations of China as a non-market economy by the United States and European Union (United States – Measures Related to Price Comparison Methodologies (DS515), European Union – Measures Related to Price Comparison Methodologies (DS516)) and will refrain from challenging the treatment of China as a non-market economy under the DSU in the future.
中國在WTO撤回對歐盟和美國把中國列為非市場國家的申訴

呢一點就等如將中國剔出WTO，中國一定受唔到

Additionally, within 15 days of receiving written notice of a prohibited product that may have been transshipped through one or more countries, with or without modification, China will provide full details of every such shipment to the suspected destination or destinations. If China fails to do so, or the information reveals that transshipping is occuring, the United States will impose tariffs equal to the amount of suspected transshipments.
除此之外，如果美方收到中國通過第三國轉運禁止進口商品的消息，中國需要在15天之內提供轉運貨物的詳細信息包括每艘船的目的地，如果中國沒有做到，或者信息顯示中國有通過第三國的轉運行為，美國將會針對轉運貨物價值相等的部分徵收關稅。

中國本來就係反對進口設置限制的，呢部分討論無意義

China understands that if it fails to uphold any commitment under this Framework for Discussion, it is likely that the United States will impose tariffs on imports from China, and, where appropriate in the case of China’s commitments under subsection (c) of Section2 or the last paragraph in Section 2, U.S. Customs and Border Protection will confiscate counterfeit and pirated goods or levy tariffs to compensate the United States for its lost technologies and intellectual property. China commits to not take any retaliatory action in response to the imposition of tariffs or confiscations by the United States pursuant to this Section
中國明確知曉如果沒有能執行框架協議裡的承諾，美國將會進一步徵收進口關稅。

如果中國違反了第二條有關知識產權部分的內容，美國海關和邊境檢察官有權沒收假冒偽劣產品或者徵收更重關稅來彌補美國技術的損失。中國承諾不會採取任何報復行動。

中國話會打擊假冒偽劣產品，所以會達成共識，但中國唔會接受美國單方面增加關稅的行為，中國一貫都是要求在WTO框架內解決問題

總結：

1.美國好重視農產品
2.美國對於在意中國製造2025會消減美國技術優勢
3.美國好想入中國市場
4.7條入面，6條都有得傾，但美國開價太高，相信係Trump一貫開天殺價、落地還錢既套路

講白D，美國想係中國賺錢，又唔想中國坐大，影響自己賺錢，而今次美國要求，係全面針對中美貿易之間長年積壓落黎既問題，咁多個美國總統，得Trump有咁既Guts去做，好波

美股買得過

偷唔偷技術事少

而家美國係直頭唔比中國補貼科技公司，中國大部份既科技公司，都係二三流，賺錢能力本身就唔夠美國黎，更無條件學美國用高薪搶人

你要搶人，就一定要靠政府放水，而家連水都唔比放，點搞？

我反而覺得美國做咁多野只係想加高係中國做生產的成本,迫佢流返去美國...

有人專登放料比Washington Post既：

The Finance 202: Beijing trade talks conclude with no progress. Get ready for a long slog.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2018/05/04/the-finance-202-beijing-trade-talks-conclude-with-no-progress-get-ready-for-a-long-slog/5aeb84dd30fb042db57972ee/?utm_term=.6a972c5338dd

習近平會唔會變成袁世凱，永續呀啦！

trump係商家思維，一定係同中國開天殺價，等人落地還錢，佢要搞掂中美貿易戰以影響中期選舉，所以一定會傾掂，差左中國跪幾多

侵侵都係想拎翻本身有嘅野

美國既農業補貼係咪真係構成農業優勢，其實好有相確

美國本身既條件賦與左佢地無窮既農業優勢，超平整土地，良好氣候，極有利大規模工業化農業，呢一點係中國點都追唔上

仲要唔比上WTO，辣呀

佢大下支那唧

根本就返緊去美國，或者外逃緊其它國家

你係商人，你見到中國因為Trade War搞到立立亂，你都心思思想走啦，1月、2月既工業投資就反映左呢個事實