財經台韭菜
2024-11-22 22:11:07
ESTC+28%
Total Revs $365M vs street at $354M
Cloud revs came in +25% to $169M vs buyside in mid to high 160s (street 166M).
Billings $384M +23% y/y accelerating from +6% last q vs street at $353M
OPM 18% vs guide at 13%
Q2 guide $367-369M vs street at 366M and inline with buyside. OPM 15% vs street at 13.5%.
Another Cloud consumption beat following SNOW earlier this week although this one not as big or clean. Beat driven by accelerated consumption from major customers alongside broad-based strength across enterprise and commercial segments. Sales reorganization benefits materializing, with pipeline creation and progression returning to historical levels. Improved execution led to robust customer commitments, notably in Gen-AI where deal value nearly doubled, including three $1M+ ACV wins.
CFO Janesh is leaving; investors I’m hearing from are viewing that as a big positive as he has a history of rug-pulling and over-promising and under delivering and contributing to the big move this morning.
Bulls will say you get an AI winner with SMID/SMB exposure and takeout potential trading at 6x CY’26 sales and an overhang lifted with CFO leaving.
Bears will say FY guide was only raised slightly and still implies Q4 exit rate of only 11-12% and Q1 commitment shortfall will impact 2H cloud revs as they take months to ramp and that new customer growth remains low. They’ll say 11-12% is pretty uninspiring consider GenAI tailwinds. RPO looked a bit squishy. They’ll say stock is only up this much because of CFO leaving.
Gets an upgrade at Baird saying significant operational improvements in Q2, marked by strong commitments, consumption trends, and improved win rates, alongside emerging GenAI momentum as reasons for the upgrade. Baird notes quick management response to Q1 challenges through territory stabilization and pipeline discipline has proven effective. Baird also points out GenAI commitments doubled, validating AI search leadership position, while Express Migration strengthens competitive stance against SIEM competitors, saying increased margin guidance and sustainable profitability metrics (Rule-of-30+) support the bull case.
財經台韭菜
2024-11-22 22:13:46
NTAP delivered strong Q2 results ($1.66B/$1.87 vs. street $1.65B/$1.78), showing 6% revenue growth driven by product (+9%) and public cloud (+9%). All-flash array revenue reached $3.8B annualized (+19% YoY). Gross margins remained robust at 72.0% gross/28.6% EBIT. Company raised FY25 guidance to 6% sales growth (from 5%) and $7.30 EPS (+20c).
Mgmt called out strong execution with market share gains and TAM expansion in all-flash arrays, plus sustained public sector strength. Balance sheet concerns easing as memory pre-buying concludes.
Not much for bears to nitpick in the print. Solid down the middle while bulls will say we are still early in upcycle, storage demand increasing according to VAR surveys, margins have more room to expand and NTAP remains an AI inference beneficary.
NTAP 2025 F/Y GUIDANCE
- Guides ADJ EPS $7.20 to $7.40, saw $7 to $7.20, EST $7.11
- Guides net revenue $6.54B to $6.74B, saw $6.48B to $6.68B
- Guides ADJ operating margin 28% to 28.5%, saw 27% to 28%
- Still sees ADJ gross margin 71% to 72%
GUIDANCE: Q3
- Guides net revenue $1.61B to $1.76B, EST $1.68B
- Guides ADJ EPS $1.85 to $1.95, EST $1.85
RESULTS: Q2
- ADJ EPS $1.87 vs. $1.58 y/y, EST $1.78
- Net revenue $1.66B, +6.1% y/y, EST $1.64B
- Hybrid cloud net rev. $1.49B, +5.8% y/y, EST $1.49B
- Product revenue $768M, +8.8% y/y, EST $769.8M
- Support rev. $635M, +1.9% y/y, EST $633.5M
- Public cloud net rev. $168M, +9.1% y/y, EST $164.3M
- ADJ gross margin 72% vs. 72% y/y, EST 71.6%
- EPS $1.42 vs. $1.10 y/y