I think I figured out the album cover. It seems to me it's all about perspective – specifically, the story that's told across the individual perspectives of each subject in the image.
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Let's start with Kendrick. Wearing a crown of thorns, he stares out the window – toward the outside world. He gazes from his private space toward the public. Anyone looking back in from the outside, peering through the window, would see just a fragment of his private reality. They'd see him holding his daughter and wearing a crown of thorns. Toward this unseen outside eye, he would appear a family man, a savior. Mr. Morale.
But from within the private space, we, the viewer, can see Kendrick's reality in full. Kendrick's focus on the window, his attention toward the outside world, manifests as distraction from his family. He is not engaged with anyone in the room. Not his wife and son, blurry in the background. Not his daughter in his arms, to whom he seems emotionally absent.
From the inside, we can quite literally see that his private reality is disintegrating: Paint peels from the walls.
Let's move to his daughter's gaze. It is focused, intent, and it looks directly at the camera. I think there are a few ways to understand this, perhaps none mutually exclusive. Of course, one way to understand Kendrick's daughter's gaze is that she is looking at us. In meeting our eye she implicates us in her emotional reality. Almost as if to say: "While you keep my father focused on the public, you keep his focus away from me."
Another way to consider Kendrick's daughter's gaze is she is looking at a mirror. Through the reflection in the mirror – which matches our gaze – she can see the full reality of her family life: Her father's emotional absence. His emotional distance from her mother. And most of all: the gun on his back, peeking out from beneath his pants, a symbol of his fear and paranoia. A symbol of the uglier, more base parts of his personality that he has thus far hidden from the public, and presumably tries to hide from her as well.
I prefer this second explanation, because it matches the themes of mirroring throughout the album. And by aligning his daughters gaze with ours, it also positions the cover to directly answer the mission of the album. Under this interpretation, the cover, like the album, puts up a mirror to Kendrick's life. It sheds his public image, reveals his private reality, and, unsparingly, shows us the truth of who he is.
https://www.reddit.com/r/KendrickLamar/comments/uvo30b/mr_morale_album_cover_i_think_figured_it_out/