福布斯:日本人為台灣而戰的可能性越來越大

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2021-07-03 21:59:08
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/07/02/its-getting-more-and-more-likely-japanese-troops-would-fight-for-taiwan/




The Japanese navy 'Asagiri'-class destroyer JS 'Yuugiri,' top, the Sri Lanka navy Advanced Offshore ... [+]
U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 3rd Class Adam Butler
Japanese authorities, increasingly worried about China’s determination to invade and forcibly “reunify” Taiwan, reportedly asked American officials to share U.S. plans for defending Taiwan.

That’s the bombshell news from Financial Times reporters Demetri Sevastopulo and Kathrin Hille.

The Americans “demurred,” Sevastopulo and Hille wrote, “because it wanted to focus on boosting co-ordination with Tokyo in phases.”

A “former U.S. official” told the reporters the goal was for the U.S. and Japanese armed forces eventually to write a single integrated plan for a Taiwan contingency.

It’s fairly obvious what that means. The geography of the western Pacific region essentially dictates the role Japan would play in an allied defense of Taiwan.

The real revelation in Sevastopulo and Hille’s reporting isn’t the prospect of a joint U.S.-Japanese war plan. It’s that Japanese leaders apparently have resigned themselves to war in the event China invades Taiwan.

That was not always a foregone conclusion.

It’s quite clear that the United States needs Japanese support in order to stand any chance of defeating a Chinese invasion attempt. The bulk of U.S. forces in the western Pacific stage from Japanese bases including Kadena air base in Okinawa, Misawa air base on Honshu and Japanese ports including Yokosuka and Sasebo.

Ideally during a counter-invasion campaign, the Japanese government not only would allow U.S. force to launch combat operations from American bases on Japanese soil—Japanese troops also would join the operations.

There’s a growing likelihood they’d do so, if the rhetoric coming out of Tokyo is any indication. “We are family with Taiwan,” Yasuhide Nakayama, Japan’s defense minister, said during an online event on Monday. Taiwan’s integrity “is clearly related to Okinawa’s protection.”
2021-07-03 21:59:31
Okinawa—and thus Kadena air base—lies just 450 miles from Taiwan. Okinawa and Taiwan are “kind of like nose and eyes, really close,” Nakayama said.

If Japanese troops joined their American allies in fighting for Taiwan, they would add mass to the intervention force. By itself, the U.S. Pacific Fleet with its roughly 200 combat ships is smaller than China’s own fleets are with their 360 front-line vessels.

Add Japan’s fleet to the American column, and the two sides are roughly equal as far as hulls go. And bear in mind, Japan’s warships are unusually heavily-armed. Tokyo’s fleet operates 36 modern destroyers and frigates—many of them with Aegis combat systems—plus 22 of the world’s biggest diesel-electric attack submarines.

What’s more, the Japanese navy is in the process of converting two of its helicopter carriers into aircraft carriers embarking F-35B stealth jump jets. Those flattops could grow by half the number of big-deck aviation ships a combined U.S.-Japanese fleet realistically could project into the western Pacific.

It’s clear where Japan would focus its operations as part of an allied force defending Taiwan. The Miyako Strait, a narrow passage between Okinawa and Miyakojima, a Japanese island that lies just 277 miles from Taiwan.

For a long time, China’s plan for invading Taiwan was simple—bombard the island then sail as many transports as possible across the 80-mile wide Taiwan Strait to the beaches of southwestern Taiwan.

But a direct attack undoubtedly would be a bloodbath. The Taiwanese armed forces have had decades to fortify the obvious approach. They would contest every mile with torpedoes, mines, artillery and missiles.

Increasingly, the Chinese navy and air force are exploring indirect approaches to Taiwan that could allow them to bypass the stiffest beach defenses. It’s not for no reason that the air force has been sending bigger and bigger formations of fighters, patrol planes and bombers around Taiwan into the vast expanse of the Philippine Sea east of the island country.

Likewise, Beijing is acquiring aircraft carriers—two are in service, a third is under construction—in part to provide air cover for warships operating east of Taiwan.

There are two ways for Chinese forces to break out into the Philippine Sea. One, they could fly or sail around southern Taiwan through the Bashi Strait, southeast of the island.

The southern option is risky. Taiwan is building up a force of more than 200 new and upgraded F-16 fighters. One of their main missions in wartime would be to patrol the Bashi Strait. One analyst even urged Taipei to buy aerial tankers to help the F-16s to spend more time over that strategic chokepoint.

The other option is to punch through the Miyako Strait. That’s exactly what the Chinese carrier Liaoning did back in April in the early days of closely-watched deployment to the Philippine and South China Seas.

If Japan joined the war over Taiwan, it could transform the Miyako Strait into one of the most dangerous waterways in the world. Tokyo has been fortifying the islands around the Miyako Strait with new radars and anti-ship missiles and is buying F-35B jump jets to fly from them.

The Japanese navy’s wartime doctrine focuses on the defense of the strait. Submarines would lie in wait for Chinese ships. Roving battle groups, protected by Japan’s new flattops, would add their anti-ship and surface-to-air missiles to the Miyako Strait’s defenses.

A clear willingness by Japan to send its troops into battle over Taiwan severely could complicate Chinese planning. Perhaps to the point of making an invasion unacceptably risky.

That’s the whole point of Tokyo’s new willingness at least to discuss an active role in Taiwan’s defense. “We have to show deterrence to China,” Nakayama said.
2021-07-03 22:01:50
中國人為台灣而戰的可能性越來越細
2021-07-03 22:07:31
三百年後必定武統台灣
2021-07-03 22:10:49
有時都幾悲哀
其實香港人對日本既支持唔會低過台灣
好似日本對外出口好多野,香港都係入口既頭1、2位地方
2021-07-03 22:10:51
日本戰敗都可以因為台灣出聲同戰,點解英國佬明明香港咁有錢
2021-07-03 22:11:50
親生仔分別,日本有事,台灣永遠捐錢第一,相反香港只係生意關係,一買一賣
2021-07-03 22:13:41
戰略意義大於一切
台灣望到日本外島
2021-07-03 22:14:29
日本台灣係唇寒齒亡,共同威脅係中國
人地已經覺得香港係中國一部分,係敵人
2021-07-03 22:17:24
地理位置差太遠
2021-07-03 22:17:43
香港既地位,等於個你隔住鐵閘見到鄰居打仔,你會可憐佢係好多時係愛莫能助,台灣係你隔離屋,台灣另一邊隔離屋就係大陸,佢搞鳩完台灣下一個搞你,咁你幫唔幫
2021-07-03 22:18:48
台灣冇左 台海海路北亞運輸線同晶片廠都被春袋
日本又唔似南韓要頂北韓
絕對有條件 如果真係打 南韓就最微妙
2021-07-03 22:21:51
蒙古打爆左金國
就會繼續侵略大宋

歷史教你偏安一隅係冇好結果
2021-07-03 22:22:26
打起上嚟南韓唔會企中國嗰邊啦
歸錯邊嘅話邊個幫佢頂北韓呀
2021-07-03 22:24:21
冇左台灣日本周圍幾本上係冇盟友
2021-07-03 22:24:55
因為美國.
2021-07-03 22:25:55
當年毛主席搵日軍協助,才能戰勝國軍,現在日軍為了正義,所以先保衛台灣
2021-07-03 22:26:20
係南韓同日本不和左好耐
2021-07-03 22:27:56
當武統難度越嚟越大
即係代表支共出兵既可能性越少
2021-07-03 22:30:10
但日本美國太多地震,而且預言家話富士山就快820大爆發,同埋有塔羅卡預言日本東京有大災,所以....
2021-07-03 22:31:55
台灣收檔日本唔會好過, 唇亡齒寒
2021-07-03 22:32:36
我預言你會死
2021-07-03 22:32:38
2021-07-03 22:32:51
如果冇政治計算 國力
南韓應該想打日本多過想打北韓

如果兩韓統一
個人認為其中一邊被策反機會多過打仗
2021-07-03 22:33:10
修咗憲先講
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