第十回唔試唔會做－中國國航（HKEX：00753）－粗淺分析

無論正評負評，睇到咁後，多謝支持／批評

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第一回－港燈－SS
https://lihkg.com/thread/518828/page/1

第二回－聯想集團
https://lihkg.com/thread/520726/page/1

第三回－中國外運
https://lihkg.com/thread/526561/page/1

第四回－AEON信貸
https://lihkg.com/thread/529035/page/1

第五回－粵海投資
https://lihkg.com/thread/532157/page/1

第六回－中國飛機租賃
https://lihkg.com/thread/534353/page/1

第七回－金界控股
https://lihkg.com/thread/538525/page/1

第八回－香港中華煤氣
https://lihkg.com/thread/541678/page/1

第九回－DYNAM JAPAN（HKEX：06889）& OKURA HOLDINGS（HKEX：01655）
https://lihkg.com/thread/544653/page/1

有進步

多謝支持

睇到國航有點感觸。我2年前睇好ALL IN ， 平均價4.8 蚊

勁
有無考慮過出場

正皮支持巴打

not a bad try

may I suggest you take a look at their fx exposure. share price has gone up so much thanks to rmb. although they have converted quite a bit of long term debt from usd to rmb, aircraft rental and fuel cost still denominated in usd But most if not all rev is in rmb hence currency mismatch.

management quality is definitely better than the other 2. for the long run u can look at the impact once 2nd Beijing airport comes online but all these r too far away for most local investors. adj ev/ebitdar is just too annoying to look at if you and adj the rental

巴菲特還曾經在波克夏年刊中寫道，「航空股是投資人的死亡陷阱」

多謝長期支持

That is a very insightful opinion. I will try my very best to see if I can look into some of the areas that you mentioned when writing the next piece.

解釋下

most of the cost I.e.oil u can't control and in the us u can add the union in it

That’s is very true. But from a perspective of mean reversion, oil price will revert back to a relatively low level from a higher level, and from a lower level to a relatively higher level. Wouldn’t it be a very sound strategy to buy in aviation stocks when the oil price is high and their earnings are low, then wait for a market correction of oil price?

in theory, yes
in practice I wish life was that easy

u need to throw all the fx, regulation, competitive landscape etc in it. also their rev mix and cost structure. southwest Ryan air all flew to the space when united American airline went to hell before oil price collapsed few years ago. they all share the same oil ...taking the oil hedge aside obviously

if u look at the Rask expansion for the Chinese airlines and the regional peers it doesn't look good at all, cask is up on oil and staff etc but domestic they r doing great even with LCC is taking lots of shares, let alone fx helps a lot.

What about the prospect of the entire sector? Do you think the “Belt& Road” is going to help?

u really believe that belt and road crab?
flying more to Pakistan or Iran will help...as u have shown in your piece, where the rev comes from? u can look at their monthly operation data where they deploy the capacity and make a judgement on obor

You are very analytical
I will look deeper for the next two pieces!!