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樓主勁小學雞

由9月27日到今日10月22日都企穩20000點阻力位

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條友邏輯癌

見你專登開post搵篇引述Bloomberg評論嘅新聞打飛機打到出去，我就好奇特登去Bloomberg搵返Shuli Ren嗰篇Even Freeing Jimmy Lai Won’t Stop Hong Kong Market’s Fall出嚟睇

Hong Kong is starting to come to terms with its beloved stock market’s miserable decline, and that it may not be bottoming out any time soon.

An alarming trend is dogging the Hang Seng this holiday season. In the past, a weaker US dollar would propel strong stock performance in Hong Kong, as the city’s financial conditions loosened and dollar-based investors came to emerging Asia seeking better returns. But lately, this historical correlation seems to be broken. Since November, the Hang Seng has fallen 4.5% even as the dollar eased by 5.2%. On Dec. 11, the blue-chip index at one point dipped below 16,000, a psychologically important level for the city of 7.3 million. The Hang Seng is down 16% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 soared 24%.

This has prompted some soul-searching, with traders asking what the government can do to prevent its $3.8 trillion stock market from falling into oblivion. Foreign portfolio outflow is an issue, and the government has been keen to repair the financial center’s reputation after its crackdown of the 2019 pro-democracy movement and then three years of Covid-related border lockdowns.

But some say that’s not enough, that Hong Kong is now a dangerous place for global investors to park their money because of its heavy-handed enforcement of the National Security Law and the risk of US sanctions that may result. As pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai goes on trial, drawing negative global headlines, some in the city are arguing a lenient sentencing could be a conciliatory gesture. After all, Lai has already been held in pre-trial detention for more than 1,000 days, as the US government has pointed out. Every resident has realized the potency of the new security law, so why push the case any further?

Unfortunately, even freeing Lai — an improbable blue-sky scenario for some — can’t arrest the Hang Seng’s decline. This is because the perception of Hong Kong among mainland investors, a large and important trading bloc, is also changing.

In recent days, Chinese investors have been offloading their shares through the stock connect, especially after the Communist Party’s annual economic work conference that concluded with no hint of big stimulus. Building a “modern industrial system,” with an emphasis on developing cutting-edge technology and artificial intelligence, was made the No. 1 goal, while boosting domestic demand was downgraded to the second spot. This policy shift makes the Hong Kong bourse, where banks, real estate developers and consumer names dominate, even more unappealing than, say, Shanghai or Shenzhen. Industrials account for only 4% of its market value. Meanwhile, the percentage of loss-making firms listed on the exchange hit a decade high of 47% this year. It’s no surprise — companies from mainland China account for over 70% of the entire market, and they are struggling with a deflationary economy and belt-tightening consumers. We’ve seen a similar — though less extreme — case before. In 2016, the Hang Seng did not get a boost from a weaker dollar either; it was affected by a stock bubble burst in the north. Just like then, all we can do is to sit tight and wait, for the mainland’s property bubble to completely pop and its economy to start turning — whenever that may be.

After all, Hong Kong is a small, open economy. Its fate is dictated by the world’s biggest powers. Be patient, my friend. See you in 2024.

人哋成篇睇目無提過用恆指睇香港經濟，相反人哋係認為雖然国安法影響外資投資香港資本市場嘅意欲，但香港股市有70%上市公司嚟自中国只要中共嘅經濟政策持續俾唔到信心投資者，咁就算放返肥佬黎出嚟都改變唔到香港股市持續下滑嘅趨勢。

根本人哋篇文就係講恆指以至香港股市嚴重傾向中資上市公司，只要中国經濟情況差就連累恆指港股同樣都差，完全係推翻緊你嗰套恆指係香港經濟指標嘅睇法。其實你專登再開多個post再衝多出嚟一次柒過有乜嘢意思?

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