1) Here are some key statistical observations about yesterday's NLD. They corroborate what I said yesterday: that Spurs dominated the match, defended well with the high line, but were poor in set-piece defending and unfortunate with bad ref decisions. ...
2) But first, what Arteta said in a post-match interview: "They force you (deeper)," Arteta said...when asked whether Arsenal had planned on sitting back so much in the first half. "We had an issue with the high press. They force you with their structure to be a bit deeper."
3) I include that for context, because for me the biggest takeaway from the match was that Arsenal thrive on controlling virtually every game they play, and they couldn't control the game against Spurs; Spurs controlled from start to finish, despite the improbable goals.
4) Arsenal fans will tell you that they 'gave' or 'gifted' Spurs possession, but that's not what their own manager said. In fact, the NLD was the second-lowest possession for Arsenal all season. Only City kept them off the ball more
5) Likewise people will tell you Spurs were too open defensively. But Spurs held Arsenal to their lowest xG of any Premier League match this season, just 1.1 (split roughly in half btw open play and set piece xG). ...
6) People will also tell you that Spurs created nothing and were just gifted a goal on Raya's mistake. The reality is that Spurs created 4 big chances (more than Arsenal) and registered the highest xG against Arsenal of any team this season in the Premier League. ...
7) Of course the only stat that matters in the end is the scoreline, and of course I'd rather have had the win and the 3 points. But if you're interested in football (as opposed to just inane online banter) .
8) ... then consider that Arsenal scored 3 goals in the first half from about .7 xG. To get 3 goals out of probabilistically less than one goal's worth of opportunity is extremely improbable. You might even say extremely lucky. .
9) A big part of that luck is how poor Spurs were--and long have been--defending set pieces. We gifted Arsenal two goals that in most circumstances are routine clearances. They didn't do anything special to generate those.
10) I've said as well that I think the non-call on Deki was egregious and led directly to the counter as the players reacted (as humans mostly do in that kind of situation). But that aside, Spurs dictated to Arsenal the course of that game, and that's not for nothing. /end