TSLA Q1交付量

如無意外將於星期二公佈，整理相關資料

While Mizuho remains constructive on the broader EV landscape, near-term EV demand and tightening liquidity are creating challenges into 2025E and downgrades all 3 stocks. Mizuho now sees 2024 EV growth at 15% y/y (prior 25% y/y) and 2025 +17% (prior +25% y/y) with the analyst citing decelerating growth, higher EV inventories (2x ICE), low consumer affordability, China EV price war, and EV subsidy cuts in US/EU as other reasons they are less positive.

For TSLA, Mizuho is at 445k vs street at 470k (TMTB: Troy Teslike cut his # to 407k yesterday and buyside closer to 410-415k) as the analyst sees rising Model Y inventories in US/EU and slower M3 Fremont ramps.

Separately, Oppenheimer puts out a less negative note, saying they believe Q1 could lead to a final near-term cut on TSLA estimates as believe the wider release of FSD v 12.3 should accelerate training data collection and trigger incremental deferred revenue recognition in Q124. However, they also cut Q1 delivery to 468k from 510k.

Bernstein lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $120 from $150 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. Tesla has experienced "soft" China and Europe demand quarter-to-date as well as "constrained" U.S. Model 3 production, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm reduced its Q1 forecast to 426,000 units from 490,000 and fiscal 2024 estimate to 1.98M unit from 2.12M. It also introduced a fiscal 2025 earnings per share estimate of $2.22, below the consensus of $3.69. Tesla's share price remains high on almost every valuation metric compared to both traditional and higher-growth auto makers, and also looks expensive relative to its reduced growth expectations when measured against tech comps, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Bernstein's discounted cash flow analysis now points to fair value of $93 per share, down from $120, primarily due to lowered estimates for terminal margins, but also due to a push-out in electric vehicle adoption growth.

As the push-pull between investors continues to be weaker numbers vs. excitement around FSD. Better FSD implications 3 fold:
1 - earnings impact if attach rate is high. Allows people to look through NT eps weakness. Just 10% attach rate could add 5% to EPS.
2- Will potentially drive better units
3 - turns around sentiment, including retail sentiment which has been leaving the stock for sexier AI plays.

Lm

put得

特斯拉(Tesla)正在加緊推廣其名為「完全自動駕駛能力」(Full-Self Driving Capability，簡稱FSD)的輔助駕駛技術，以擴大這一創收軟體功能的使用範圍，此時該公司正面臨著今年汽車交付量增長放緩的前景。

特斯拉首席執行官馬斯克(Elon Musk)本周在一封內部郵件中告訴員工，客戶在收到汽車之前，必須接受一次使用該技術的試駕。

該系統是特斯拉自動駕駛技術(Autopilot)的高級版本，所有特斯拉新車都配備了這項技術，旨在幫助完成轉向和變道等駕駛任務。全自動駕駛系統是一種升級版服務，預付12,000美元或每月支付199美元的訂閱服務費即可獲得，它包括可在城市街道上為汽車導航的功能。

已all in

《彭博》引述消息報道，由於電動車銷售增長乏力，加上市場競爭激烈，美國電動汽車巨頭Tesla已經減少上海工廠的產量。

知情人士指，本月早些時候，Tesla指示上海工廠降低Model Y和Model 3的產量，每周工作天數從通常的6.5天減少至5天。生產線每天有2個工作班次，每個班次工作11.5個小時保持不變。員工目前尚未收到指示何時恢復正常。

知情人士指，Tesla上海工廠的部分生產線，包括電池車間，將面臨更長時間停產。Tesla已告知員工和部分供應商，做好延長限產至4月份的準備。

Put put車= 三隻猴子

有420k 都要偷笑

Q1 23交付量

買tesla 睇交付量死得啦
同d 大行睇30 蚊冇分別

唔睇交付量點估營收同eps?

其實佢software development行前咁多，都未做到個ecosystem 出黎，大可以做多d app 係佢Tesla 個UI度俾人sub下。依家佢擺新FSD出黎只能係守住條護城河多過吸引人買多架提升交付量。Cybertruck應該都走唔到mass住，Semi又未出街，關鍵係睇佢部平價車有幾打得

另外佢本身hardware有powerwall 同megapack, 都係潛在盈利來源，好似係之後會跑出黎。

每次公報完都係跌 睇路啦

如果投資角度嘅話跌唔係仲好咩？ 可以俾你買下貨
反而唔想佢咁快升

岀業績前例跌

Troy Teslike一向估得好準，今次佢估407k，目前見唔到有人估得低過佢

其實早排咁多負面新聞，大家都知Q1交付一定差，最近跌到$160，會唔會已經price in咗？而且最近FSD發展進度良好，好多人等着抄底，會唔會反而跌唔到落去？

幾時公佈

4月2就150

drop to zero