我幾支持佢內政都好
外交我真係吹唔起
基本上對於佢嘅外交立場
印象中我淨係知佢好似響
葉門內戰、沙特殺記者、同埋委內瑞拉政變嘅時候出過下聲
基本上都係「唔好干涉別國內政」啊、人道立場啊之類
【推到完場】2020美國總統選舉 Bernie Sanders 討論區/粉絲帖/新聞張貼站 （1）
暴走的赫胥黎
129 回覆
10 Like
61 Dislike
呢樣真
我幾支持佢內政都好
外交我真係吹唔起
基本上對於佢嘅外交立場
印象中我淨係知佢好似響
葉門內戰、沙特殺記者、同埋委內瑞拉政變嘅時候出過下聲
基本上都係「唔好干涉別國內政」啊、人道立場啊之類
我幾支持佢內政都好
外交我真係吹唔起
基本上對於佢嘅外交立場
印象中我淨係知佢好似響
葉門內戰、沙特殺記者、同埋委內瑞拉政變嘅時候出過下聲
基本上都係「唔好干涉別國內政」啊、人道立場啊之類
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/which-2020-democrats-already-have-a-fan-base-and-which-dont/
By Nathaniel Rakich
Filed under 2020 Democratic Primary
Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t
Early horse-race polls of the presidential primary are sometimes accurate, sometimes not. So at this point in the election calendar, looking at how voters feel about each candidate can be more helpful. Measures like favorable and unfavorable ratings can reveal which candidates are polling poorly because they’re not popular and which are simply not well-known. This is important because most eventual nominees are one of two things early in the campaign: (1) household names who are already well-liked by members of their party or (2) relative unknowns.1
That’s also true of most major2 candidates (and potential candidates) in the 2020 Democratic field — but there is enough variation to be interesting, plus one notable outlier. Below, I’ve plotted the share of Democrats who can form an opinion of each major candidate (favorable rating plus unfavorable rating) against the candidate’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among Democrats,3 according to an average of national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Feb. 5 of this year.
On the high-recognition end of the spectrum (the right side of the chart above), we have Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Among the three, however, Biden has the highest net favorability rating (+69 percentage points), which is higher than one would expect. By contrast, Sanders’s net favorability rating is a bit lower than what one would expect, at +52 points. Meanwhile, Warren’s +44 net favorability rating is a bit better than one would expect.
“What one would expect” is based on the overall trendline that’s plotted on the chart above, which is our best guess at what the relationship is between the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate and her net favorability rating among Democrats. The line projects what the net favorability rating “should” be for each candidate based on how well-known he or she is. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ actual net favorability ratings compare with those projections (in other words, the distance between their head and the line in the chart above):
Biden and Bloomberg break the favorability pattern
2020 Democratic candidates’ actual and projected net favorability ratings among Democratic respondents, based on the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate, according to an average of national polls conducted Jan. 1 through Feb. 5
By Nathaniel Rakich
Filed under 2020 Democratic Primary
Which 2020 Democrats Already Have A Fan Base — And Which Don’t
Early horse-race polls of the presidential primary are sometimes accurate, sometimes not. So at this point in the election calendar, looking at how voters feel about each candidate can be more helpful. Measures like favorable and unfavorable ratings can reveal which candidates are polling poorly because they’re not popular and which are simply not well-known. This is important because most eventual nominees are one of two things early in the campaign: (1) household names who are already well-liked by members of their party or (2) relative unknowns.1
That’s also true of most major2 candidates (and potential candidates) in the 2020 Democratic field — but there is enough variation to be interesting, plus one notable outlier. Below, I’ve plotted the share of Democrats who can form an opinion of each major candidate (favorable rating plus unfavorable rating) against the candidate’s net favorability rating (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) among Democrats,3 according to an average of national polls taken between Jan. 1 and Feb. 5 of this year.
On the high-recognition end of the spectrum (the right side of the chart above), we have Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Among the three, however, Biden has the highest net favorability rating (+69 percentage points), which is higher than one would expect. By contrast, Sanders’s net favorability rating is a bit lower than what one would expect, at +52 points. Meanwhile, Warren’s +44 net favorability rating is a bit better than one would expect.
“What one would expect” is based on the overall trendline that’s plotted on the chart above, which is our best guess at what the relationship is between the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate and her net favorability rating among Democrats. The line projects what the net favorability rating “should” be for each candidate based on how well-known he or she is. Here’s a look at how the candidates’ actual net favorability ratings compare with those projections (in other words, the distance between their head and the line in the chart above):
Biden and Bloomberg break the favorability pattern
2020 Democratic candidates’ actual and projected net favorability ratings among Democratic respondents, based on the share of Democrats with an opinion of the candidate, according to an average of national polls conducted Jan. 1 through Feb. 5
As you can see, Biden is unusually beloved, even for a politician as well-known as he is. The 12-point difference between his actual net favorability rating and his projected net favorability rating places him at the top of the table. But the biggest outlier is Michael Bloomberg, who says he is still deciding whether to get into the race. With 62 percent of Democrats able to form an opinion of him, Bloomberg is one of the better-known contenders. But he has a net favorability rating of only +11 (24 points less than expected). Why is Bloomberg so relatively unpopular? Maybe Democrats are aware of his moderate views on economic issues; for example, he compared Warren’s proposal for a “wealth tax” with “non-capitalistic” Venezuela. Or, maybe, in the era of President Trump, Democrats are turned off by the idea of nominating a businessman for president.
Either way, it’s a problem for Bloomberg, should he decide to run. According to FiveThirtyEight’s research, only one high-recognition but low-favorability candidate early in the campaign has overcome that handicap to win a nomination since at least 1980: Trump.4 The president may not get enough credit for his extraordinary comeback in the primary campaign5 — he turned a -42 net favorability rating among Republicans (!) in a May 2015 poll into a +28 net favorability rating that September. Bloomberg isn’t starting from such a low place, but if he wants to improve his popularity among primary voters, he may have a harder time than Trump did. Although he has the advantage of wealth (like Trump), Bloomberg is unlikely to get the massive quantity of free-media coverage that Trump did, and he doesn’t appear to scratch an unsatisfied itch for Democrats the way Trump has for the GOP.
As Trump showed, net favorability isn’t the be-all and end-all of primary prognostication. But it has proved instructive in other years. As always, we continue to entertain many hypotheses about how the presidential primary works.
Derek Shan contributed research.
Either way, it’s a problem for Bloomberg, should he decide to run. According to FiveThirtyEight’s research, only one high-recognition but low-favorability candidate early in the campaign has overcome that handicap to win a nomination since at least 1980: Trump.4 The president may not get enough credit for his extraordinary comeback in the primary campaign5 — he turned a -42 net favorability rating among Republicans (!) in a May 2015 poll into a +28 net favorability rating that September. Bloomberg isn’t starting from such a low place, but if he wants to improve his popularity among primary voters, he may have a harder time than Trump did. Although he has the advantage of wealth (like Trump), Bloomberg is unlikely to get the massive quantity of free-media coverage that Trump did, and he doesn’t appear to scratch an unsatisfied itch for Democrats the way Trump has for the GOP.
As Trump showed, net favorability isn’t the be-all and end-all of primary prognostication. But it has proved instructive in other years. As always, we continue to entertain many hypotheses about how the presidential primary works.
Derek Shan contributed research.
反中國有乜用
大把民主黨人反中國甚至黑馬都反中國架啦
但做過咩呢
夠唔夠膽開中國波
大把民主黨人反中國甚至黑馬都反中國架啦
但做過咩呢
夠唔夠膽開中國波
年齡我唔太怕喎又
佢70歲都可以單人連續拉布8個鐘
實健康過超哂重既Trump
不過揀個識對外既VP好重要
佢搞內政VP幫手外交
佢70歲都可以單人連續拉布8個鐘
實健康過超哂重既Trump
不過揀個識對外既VP好重要
佢搞內政VP幫手外交
咁都得嘅
香港人同美國人對美國總統嘅期望係唔同㗎啦
香港人同美國人對美國總統嘅期望係唔同㗎啦
多謝完美示範咩叫bigotry
先唔講醫學界認可嘅psychologically嘅性別錯置
Biological嘅第三性唔係啲咩天馬行空科幻嘢
亦唔係走火入魔嘅性別研究
呢個世界係有一堆人一生出黎同時有兩性特徵
即係intersex people
而且根據聯合國數字出現率係多到每一百個就有1.7個
https://www.unfe.org/intersex-awareness/
（不過喺你眼中聯合國應該係fake news左膠組織
）
當一個人同時有子宮同陰莖嘅時候你點判斷佢係男定女？
歷史上嘅做法係醫生喺兩性嬰兒初生時用一啲好abitrary嘅判斷方法一刀切咬定嬰兒嘅性別，然後迅速切除另一個性別嘅器官。判啱咗都還好，唔好彩判錯咗個兩性人咁就一世，冇咗自己順性別嘅器官而終其一生都要用錯嘅性別生活。所以先要社會大眾去除男女二元性別分界正視雙性人嘅處境
至於連跨性別人士transgender你都覺得唔存在，只能講你先係反科學嗰個
如果樣樣嘢都要解剖出黎見得到先存在嘅話，咁成個精神醫學同心理學應該可以摺埋
個世界唔係非黑即白咁簡單架
先唔講醫學界認可嘅psychologically嘅性別錯置
Biological嘅第三性唔係啲咩天馬行空科幻嘢
亦唔係走火入魔嘅性別研究
呢個世界係有一堆人一生出黎同時有兩性特徵
即係intersex people
而且根據聯合國數字出現率係多到每一百個就有1.7個
https://www.unfe.org/intersex-awareness/
（不過喺你眼中聯合國應該係fake news左膠組織
）當一個人同時有子宮同陰莖嘅時候你點判斷佢係男定女？
歷史上嘅做法係醫生喺兩性嬰兒初生時用一啲好abitrary嘅判斷方法一刀切咬定嬰兒嘅性別，然後迅速切除另一個性別嘅器官。判啱咗都還好，唔好彩判錯咗個兩性人咁就一世，冇咗自己順性別嘅器官而終其一生都要用錯嘅性別生活。所以先要社會大眾去除男女二元性別分界正視雙性人嘅處境
至於連跨性別人士transgender你都覺得唔存在，只能講你先係反科學嗰個
如果樣樣嘢都要解剖出黎見得到先存在嘅話，咁成個精神醫學同心理學應該可以摺埋
個世界唔係非黑即白咁簡單架
奥巴馬年代計劃用TPP圍堵中國，不過畀trump叫停左
sanders係唔錯，不過要大巴大巴咁車落trump度的話就要揀kamala harris
係咪左膠？
同性戀婚姻取向？
人口/難民政策？
同性戀婚姻取向？
人口/難民政策？
無錯
性別呢個概念包含好多層面
客觀生理層面、相對主觀嘅心理層面（性別認同）、性別氣質、性別崗位之類
其實好似身分認同咁咋嘛
正如一個人祖籍上係華裔人，雖然數字上來講比較大機會自認為中國人，但係呢樣嘢唔係必然，更加唔代表「應該」咁樣認同。
呢樣嘢連登仔唔係應該好易明㗎咩
如果你覺得人數少就唔使考慮的話
咁香港人佔中國人口比例都好少啦
係咪代表中國都唔使考慮香港-->壓迫香港立即合理
補充資料
US proposal for defining gender has no basis in science
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07238-8
// [...]sex — a classification based on internal and external bodily characteristics — and gender, a social construct related to biological differences but also rooted in culture, societal norms and individual behaviour.
[...]
The research and medical community now sees sex as more complex than male and female, and gender as a spectrum that includes transgender people and those who identify as neither male nor female. //
性別呢個概念包含好多層面
客觀生理層面、相對主觀嘅心理層面（性別認同）、性別氣質、性別崗位之類
其實好似身分認同咁咋嘛
正如一個人祖籍上係華裔人，雖然數字上來講比較大機會自認為中國人，但係呢樣嘢唔係必然，更加唔代表「應該」咁樣認同。
呢樣嘢連登仔唔係應該好易明㗎咩
如果你覺得人數少就唔使考慮的話
咁香港人佔中國人口比例都好少啦
係咪代表中國都唔使考慮香港-->壓迫香港立即合理
補充資料
US proposal for defining gender has no basis in science
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-07238-8
// [...]sex — a classification based on internal and external bodily characteristics — and gender, a social construct related to biological differences but also rooted in culture, societal norms and individual behaviour.
[...]
The research and medical community now sees sex as more complex than male and female, and gender as a spectrum that includes transgender people and those who identify as neither male nor female. //
https://www.facebook.com/berniesanders/photos/a.324119347643076/2149897511731908/?type=3&theater
TRUMP IS FUCKING AFRAID
TRUMP IS FUCKING AFRAID
Nearly 40 percent of Sanders 2020 donors so far appear to be new supporters: report
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/431519-nearly-40-percent-of-sanders-2020-donors-used-email-address-never
Almost 40 percent of donors to Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign so far have used an email address that was never previously used to give to a Sanders campaign, The New York Times reported Monday.
The revelation signals that Sanders may have significantly expanded his support base and donor network from when he ran for president in 2016.
The Times also reported that, as of Monday, Sanders has received $10 million from 359,914 donors since announcing his 2020 bid less than a week ago.
“Our second day was bigger than anybody else’s first day," Ari Rabin-Havt, a senior adviser to Sanders, told the newspaper.
There are also more than 48,000 donors who have agreed to give Sanders recurring donations. Those recurring donations will be worth more than $1 million in total per month, the Times reported, citing statistics provided by the Sanders campaign. According to the Times, the average contribution was less than $26.
Sanders announced his second bid for the presidency last week, and within 24 hours his campaign had received nearly $6 million in donations.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/431519-nearly-40-percent-of-sanders-2020-donors-used-email-address-never
Almost 40 percent of donors to Sen. Bernie Sanders's (I-Vt.) 2020 presidential campaign so far have used an email address that was never previously used to give to a Sanders campaign, The New York Times reported Monday.
The revelation signals that Sanders may have significantly expanded his support base and donor network from when he ran for president in 2016.
The Times also reported that, as of Monday, Sanders has received $10 million from 359,914 donors since announcing his 2020 bid less than a week ago.
“Our second day was bigger than anybody else’s first day," Ari Rabin-Havt, a senior adviser to Sanders, told the newspaper.
There are also more than 48,000 donors who have agreed to give Sanders recurring donations. Those recurring donations will be worth more than $1 million in total per month, the Times reported, citing statistics provided by the Sanders campaign. According to the Times, the average contribution was less than $26.
Sanders announced his second bid for the presidency last week, and within 24 hours his campaign had received nearly $6 million in donations.
放低個名先
就係有人咁講，DSA 跟本就係共產黨，現在借咗民主黨個殼上市，不過民主黨只在唔識死，唔知知個時，會唔會清黨
造勢大會有二千幾人
===============
•The rally was held at Brooklyn College in New York, not far from where Bernie Sanders grew up
•During his speech, Sanders, 77, talked about his working class roots, childhood and personal values
•He focused on his personal story during his speech, unlike what he did during his 2016 Presidential campaign
•About 2,000 people were said to have shown up for the rally despite freezing temperatures
Bernie Sanders, 77, held the first rally of his 2020 presidential campaign at Brooklyn College in New York City Saturday. He grew up a short distance away from the rally's location in a working class family
Sanders' reveal of his personal story was a shift from his failed 2016 Presidential campaign, which focused more on policies
About 2,000 people showed up at the college campus to support Sanders despite freezing weather Saturday
When Sanders talked policies, however, they were the same as before as he continued to advocate for making the rich pay more taxes, establishing free higher education, a $15 an hour minimum wage across the country and Medicare for all
Sanders also stated that his campaign would not be based on 'racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia and religious bigotry' and that it would make clear 'that the underlying principles of our government will not be greed, hatred and lies'
Sanders contrasted his working class upbringing with Trump's childhood, pointing out that unlike Trump, Sanders 'did not come from a family who gave me a $200,000 allowance every year' starting at age three, instead he got 25 cents a week
Sanders also noted that unlike Trump's family which has been accused of housing discrimination, Sanders protested housing discrimination and was actually arrested for protesting school segregation
As Sanders spoke the crowd chanted '1,2,3, screw the bourgeoisie' and 'Green New Deal!' referring to the Democratic plan to tackle climate change, while holding signs that stated 'From Palestine to Mexico, walls have got to go'
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/03/02/4430038928024318916/1024x576_MP4_4430038928024318916.mp4
Bernie Sanders calls Trump 'the most dangerous president' in history
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2441819312356111189/1024x576_MP4_2441819312356111189.mp4
Senator Bernie Sanders announces he's running for President
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2668683852327242672/1024x576_MP4_2668683852327242672.mp4
Sanders pledges grassroots movement as he runs for President
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2522105703429915159/1024x576_MP4_2522105703429915159.mp4
President Trump comments on Bernie Sanders' 2020 run
source:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6764443/Bernie-Sanders-gets-personal-calls-Trump-dangerous-President-modern-American-history.html
===============
•The rally was held at Brooklyn College in New York, not far from where Bernie Sanders grew up
•During his speech, Sanders, 77, talked about his working class roots, childhood and personal values
•He focused on his personal story during his speech, unlike what he did during his 2016 Presidential campaign
•About 2,000 people were said to have shown up for the rally despite freezing temperatures
Bernie Sanders, 77, held the first rally of his 2020 presidential campaign at Brooklyn College in New York City Saturday. He grew up a short distance away from the rally's location in a working class family
Sanders' reveal of his personal story was a shift from his failed 2016 Presidential campaign, which focused more on policies
About 2,000 people showed up at the college campus to support Sanders despite freezing weather Saturday
When Sanders talked policies, however, they were the same as before as he continued to advocate for making the rich pay more taxes, establishing free higher education, a $15 an hour minimum wage across the country and Medicare for all
Sanders also stated that his campaign would not be based on 'racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia and religious bigotry' and that it would make clear 'that the underlying principles of our government will not be greed, hatred and lies'
Sanders contrasted his working class upbringing with Trump's childhood, pointing out that unlike Trump, Sanders 'did not come from a family who gave me a $200,000 allowance every year' starting at age three, instead he got 25 cents a week
Sanders also noted that unlike Trump's family which has been accused of housing discrimination, Sanders protested housing discrimination and was actually arrested for protesting school segregation
As Sanders spoke the crowd chanted '1,2,3, screw the bourgeoisie' and 'Green New Deal!' referring to the Democratic plan to tackle climate change, while holding signs that stated 'From Palestine to Mexico, walls have got to go'
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/03/02/4430038928024318916/1024x576_MP4_4430038928024318916.mp4
Bernie Sanders calls Trump 'the most dangerous president' in history
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2441819312356111189/1024x576_MP4_2441819312356111189.mp4
Senator Bernie Sanders announces he's running for President
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2668683852327242672/1024x576_MP4_2668683852327242672.mp4
Sanders pledges grassroots movement as he runs for President
https://videos.dailymail.co.uk/video/mol/2019/02/19/2522105703429915159/1024x576_MP4_2522105703429915159.mp4
President Trump comments on Bernie Sanders' 2020 run
source:https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6764443/Bernie-Sanders-gets-personal-calls-Trump-dangerous-President-modern-American-history.html
跟本就算唔係侵fans，都頂唔順佢，佢個套搵靚仔或女人推銷就得
佢支持向富人同大企業收重稅，加最低工資
搞到美國公司冇哂競爭力
相反支那係用國家力量去補貼企業
比佢做總統支那真係贏到開巷
搞到美國公司冇哂競爭力
相反支那係用國家力量去補貼企業
比佢做總統支那真係贏到開巷