JMA報得西既原因應該係因為自己既數值(JGSM)報得比較西,但正如JTWC既預報理由所講,係一個outlier黎
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY RIGHT
OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO OFFSET THE JGSM TRACK WHICH IS SOUTH OF
THE OTHER MODELS. SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS IS ABOUT 170 NM AT TAU
72, BUT THAT FALLS TO 78 NM WHEN JGSM IS NOT INCLUDED.