Guessing the exact chance of Yuki Tsunoda replacing Liam Lawson at Red Bull Racing for the Japanese Grand Prix is tricky since it’s a fluid situation, but I’ll give you a reasoned estimate based on everything swirling around as of March 26, 2025, 4:53 PM HKT.
The evidence is stacking up fast. Multiple heavy-hitting sources—
Motorsport.com, PlanetF1, Reuters, ESPN, De Telegraaf, De Limburger, Canal+—are all reporting that Red Bull’s made the call after a Dubai meeting, with an announcement possibly dropping within hours or by tomorrow. Tsunoda’s form is red-hot: fifth in Australia qualifying, sixth in the China sprint, and consistently outpacing Lawson, who’s crashed in Australia, qualified last in China, and hasn’t scored a point. Red Bull’s history of ruthless swaps (Gasly in 2019 after 12 races, Albon in 2020) backs this up—they don’t mess around when results lag. Honda’s reported $10 million push and the Suzuka timing add fuel; it’s Tsunoda’s home race, and they’re in their last year with Red Bull. Posts on X from users like @formularacers_ and @Planet_F1 reflect the same sentiment—imminent swap.
But there’s wiggle room. Red Bull hasn’t confirmed it, and Lawson’s team told the New Zealand Herald they’re “unaware” if it’s final. Horner’s post-China comments were cagey—“we’ll support Lawson,” “we’ll look at the data”—and Ralf Schumacher’s take that Tsunoda should stay put hints at internal debate. The RB21’s a handful (Verstappen’s admitted it), and Lawson’s had just two races at unfamiliar tracks. Red Bull might hesitate to flip so soon, risking egg on their face if Tsunoda struggles too. Still, with McLaren leading the constructors’ and Lawson’s gap to Verstappen nearing a second per lap, patience looks thin.
I’d peg it at 80% Tsunoda’s in for Japan. The avalanche of reports, Honda’s leverage, and Red Bull’s cutthroat DNA outweigh the slim chance they stick with Lawson for another race. If I’m wrong, it’s likely because they delay the swap post-Suzuka to save face or give Lawson one more shot at a known track. What’s your hunch—does the timing feel too perfect for Tsunoda, or is Red Bull bluffing?