中國飛機租賃（01848.HK）－粗淺分析

其實飛機租賃既entry barrier係極高，一間企業要有大量流動資金先可以support到，所以只有銀行或者城哥呢d大把貨先可以玩

建議樓主可以比較埋長實同stan chart既飛機租賃業務

啲息真係唔錯，而且應該短期仲可能會增加派息，不過風險始終有啲高

Last time you mentioned interest rate sensitivity, so I looked up the annual report, and got the part for its debt's sensitivity to floating interest rate movement. Or do you mean its interest coverage?

And I still can't find the info. concerning the leasing contract. Whether its floating or fixed.

For the valuation part,

for this stock, I believe it is undervalued, but not so sure too much extent. Still in my opinion, I expect a P/E of 14x-15x in the medium-to-long term. And for the earnings, I used the average of the past five years, that gives 0.737 per share. That gives a price range of $10.3 to $11.0.

拆機好似好近期先搞，實際成效其實都不太肯定

咩位？MT？OFFer 咩人工

另外睇左report...公司有好多loan
Bank loan大部分floating同有啲問其他人借就6厘幾
Bank loan我覺得都係大陸銀行借 如果美國加息 中國會唔會跟住加

份嘢有講過應收款項會因浮息而變動，但實際係咪全部浮動定點唔太肯定。對沖浮息佢有做掉期。

哩部分我都部分地同意，因為租賃公司賺錢係賺租賃收入同借錢買機的利息差額，租賃合約的定價要定得吸引，就一定要有低嘅融資成本。哩一點尼睇，公司背後有咩財團支撐，或者自己本身嘅信譽嘅要求都好高

圖中可見，構成中國飛機租賃的負債主要有三項：銀行借貸，債券和長期借貸。三項當中，通常而言，銀行借貸的成本是最高的，其利率「主要根據固定利率或倫敦銀行同業美元拆息浮動利率計息 」。

不過依然係唔用腦
搵間咁既野黎寫
當年係咁掂既都唔洗賣俾光大
隻野同中信建投果堆差唔多
靠央企名係條街行
佢堆客基本上正路既
但咁大個market揀呢隻
唔去驗下智力真係講唔過去

I can’t test my IQ because I don’t want to drag down the average

中銀果隻都可以拎堆黎講

咁你第三段又話冇「護城河」
同埋你覺得商用飛機隨便去買人地會賣咩？有時唔一定專利先係個entry barrier,capital requirement都可以係

因為個競爭確實係好大，而且比起一眾內銀附屬嘅租賃公司，1848嘅優勢未必係到

遲下寫下先

俾心機讀好書先

what would happen to earnings if interest rate goes up??
very important for all these high leverage firms.

wont comment on your valuation in public but question is what's the rationale behind your thinking?

u can be right for the wrong reasons or wrong for the right reasons. what important is your thinking process...no one can be right all the time

well, at least he tries

and I need to deal with the interns later...good practice lol

搵樓主練eq

讀萬卷書不如行萬里路！

For a 50 bp rise in interest rate, the EBT is expected to experience a 3.40% drop. The fed raise the FFR for 25bp each time. So even if in 2018, four time of such hike would just contribute to a loss in EBT for 1848 of around 6.80%. For the valuation part, the EPS that I used, compared to the 2017 actual figure, is discounted with a factor of 0.6775 (0.737/1.088), so from my perspective, it is still a very conservative figure, the EPS of 0.737, to be used in getting my target price.

Anyway, from my perspective, the rise in interest rate won't cause any material impact to the earnings, at least within the coming two to three years.

And for the valuation part, my rationale is that, the P/E has been constantly declining for both 2588 and 1848, despite the strong and robust growth in earnings. The average of the past five years’ P/E is around 13.24. So a 14x to 15x P/E is a reasonable guess, i think.

My rationale is that, which may seem weird, P/E is also some how a mean-reverting phenomenon, when earnings rise, price rise, earnings fall, price fall, but there should still be a medium-to-long run average. So when the P/E is brought down due to market sentiments, or that the market has not fully appreciated a certain industry or certain firm, the P/E would be lower, and as the market later capture the entirety of the industry’s prospect or fair value, the P/E should go up.

The pic is a wrong representation, it shouldn't be upward trending. But the idea is about mean-reversion

that is...if all else stay the same
pretty sure those analysis on CDO and cmo said the same thing in 2008

anyhow, 75bps or 1% this year that's interesting enough

well, u r right on mean reversion but is this a mean reversion or de rating??

anyway, at least u have a view on this one. whether other ppl think about your piece and do u trust yourself and act on it is another thing.

after all aircraft leasing business is damn complicated there r loads of things u havent touched ... is probably more complicated than banks or insurance

Theoretically speaking and practically speaking, there is not way to capture all the factors that could affect the P/E of a firm, there could be market misperception, too hot a stock, or just some insignificant news that mislead investors. So, i think assuming some kind of cyclicality or mean-reversion of the P/E is quite fair. Statistically, P/E is unlikely to be mean-reverting, i think. ,but my idea is that the the fair P/E of a certain business in a certain industry ought to be a constant, of course, holding others factors constant. There could be market perception that leads to the P/E being higher or lower than the L-R mean P/E. And so buy when the P/E is lower than the average, and to be conservative, maybe buy when the P/E is like 30% below the average.

and by the way I believe in my view, and I did act on them from time to time.

I know that many businesses are so diverse and complicated, but there ain't any books that tell people what area to look at, this is a major difficulty for me. I did read some analysis on Seeking Alpha, one on airports, quite interesting one, one on leasing companies and one on Blackrock. But they didn't go into the specifics actually.