第17回－中國飛機租賃(01848.HK)－粗淺分析

分析太淺 說服力不足
睇14-17 股息回報有上升趨勢就買我不如睇股價走勢 睇ROE仲好喇

你不如講下飛機租賃既前景 中國既物流需求好d 以家你篇文實在毫無靈魂 如果單睇股息沒必要買佢 你出咁hea不如唔好出

ROE下篇睇

其實我想轉做以後都係睇兩個角度
1. 股息 2. 盈利

何解靈魂？者係有一個中心思想會好啲？

多謝意見

因為睇過篇文

文中角色搵估值低嘅股票有三個角度
股息/盈利能力/評級

仲低過IPO

上次寫410因為410個歷史長啲 所以多啲嘢寫吓

不妨睇睇比啲評語
多謝批評btw
第15回－SOHO中國(1) (00410.HK)－粗淺分析
https://lihkg.com/thread/619801/page/1?ref=ios
- 分享自 LIHKG 討論區

如果你當佢係一隻收息股 股息發放既穩定性相對重要 呢隻上市太短 最小都行一個十年( 經濟週期) 先睇到比較實際既平均股息回報 所以單睇股息回報 我毫不猶疑只會簡煤氣

所以如果我要簡呢隻唔簡煤氣 你應該要話比我知 佢既增長潛力 潛在市場 潛在對手 護城河 影響毛利既因素 等等 過往數據唔係沒用 但只係其中一種support
睇到公司既潛力 同確定性有幾大先會吸引眼球

都係一樣問題
dont just view back
look forward to future

多謝意見

我 IPO 中左兩手，然後一直潛水。 我見佢插到 3X 溝下溝下就 around 均價 39 . 中間收左一兩次息咁上下，

對呢隻野都有信心既, 機齡新，出租率 100%, 無壞帳

而且佢 based 新加坡，易接觸中國以外既客

個人覺得1848好似抵買啲

interest rate sensitivity?
customer concentration risk?
valuation??

Long Time No See.

interest rate sensitivity i dont know how to analyse because they dont disclosure each deal and the funding of each deal

Customer concentration risk to be discussed in next piece. I will try compare with 2588

Valuation part I have done but I keep it to myself

人生，要冒險還是無風險？(長文)
https://lihkg.com/thread/662612/page/1?ref=web
- 分享自 LIHKG 討論區

seriously u rather do 1 piece great than lots of rubbish, a bro here wrote sth very insightful.last week on trade war and semi conductor, look at that
I told an intern once, u dont add value if u just present sth I can run it on Bloomberg.

in their annual report they publish the interest rate sensitivity, the leasing contract is fixed or floating rate matters...

tell u what....if u want audience rather than replying to yourself to boost your post....write about xiomai IPO

u can download the prospectus from hkex.

after that, u can compare what u write to all the newspapers commentary or broker pdie report if u can get a hand on it

So instead of presenting facts or simple calculation

I should write with an argument?

Say 1848 has good customer base
Because ...
According to ...
Therefore, ...

What about this? Please tkae a look
https://lihkg.com/thread/619801/page/3
https://lihkg.com/thread/633912/page/1

I did have a argument that stopping the special dividends is no big deal. The business is good.

I will do it! will tag you when finish!

market thinks the earning is x, and gives it a multiple of y

liduqidity trading drives the stock to be range bound but doesn't move it significantly

so the question is what drives the earning and the multiple. so what is your analysis that is different to market? because market has a wrong perception of their deperciation schedule, or too high interest rate sensitivity?? or wrong residual values of their plane?

why Berkshire Hathaway never pay dividends? because in theory it doesn't matter. u can always sell some shares yourself to create dividend if the company keeps all the cash, in theory obviously

actually give u a pretty silly example

hpht sp

they own quite a few berth in kawi chung
u can argue why share price will go crazy because the land is so under valve as all the berth could be converted to residential land.

that's an argument and it could happen in the future, obviously share price hasn't priced in this (rightly). but if u could bring a strong argument then it is a.reason to.buy

呢d所謂粗淺分析以後可以少做，因為非常難做，因為scope 太大，你冇可能做到全面分析，作為讀者我except 睇完會得到”呢隻股值唔值得買”既資訊。

建議做一個細d既topic,但講得精d.比如”1848 同2588 邊個比較值得買”. 咁你就開始有多d 資料俾到大家，比如你compare 佢地既債務問題，出租率情況，market 分怖

呢d comparison 會係你draw 人attention 既位，因為我地又會想8卦下但又冇做research,你有少少value adding+analysis.你所有股息率歷史之類既資料，純粹在報告extract 出來，不算是分析

綜合你跟過比較後得出既分析，你可以用自己睇法做總結，建議人短中長線分別可以點部署

Raptor is portfolio man?

I always get your point. But it's hard to act on it! I will try try!

下篇再嘗試 試下小米先