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https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/10030102
Fitch: China Links Weaken Hong Kong Banks' Operating Environment
09 MAY 2018 9:09 PM ET
Link to Fitch Ratings' Report(s): Hong Kong Banks' Operating Environment
Fitch Ratings-Hong Kong/London-09 May 2018: Fitch Ratings has cut its assessment of the operating environment for Hong Kong's banks to 'a'/stable from 'a+'/negative due to the growing influence of the links between the territory and mainland China.
We believe that Hong Kong's growing connectivity with China's economy and financial system creates risks for the robustness, effectiveness and independence of Hong Kong's regulatory and legal frameworks. China's governance standards, as measured in the World Bank's Worldwide Governance Indicators, are substantially lower than Hong Kong's. Our assessment of the operating environment also takes into account Hong Kong's high macro-prudential risk due to above-trend credit growth and high property price inflation, which are largely the result of the deepening linkages with China.
Hong Kong is one of three markets globally that we consider most vulnerable to macro-prudential risk. Growth in the private-sector credit/GDP ratio has been more than 5pp above trend since 2010, reaching 20pp above trend in 2017. High property price inflation has increased spill-over risks to Hong Kong's economy, even though banks' direct exposure to this sector is small. Household indebtedness continues to rise, particularly debt for general use, but also mortgages debt, although credit card debt is broadly stable.
Hong Kong's unparalleled access to China provides banks growth opportunities, which are rare in mature markets. Banks will pursue different strategies according to their risk appetite, franchise and customer base, but we expect many will increasingly finance mainland customers' activities in China, particularly in the neighbouring Guangdong province and major cities, while serving mainland customers offshore could be important for some network banks. Chinese banks are also likely to leverage their considerably larger resources and customer bases to pursue growth in Hong Kong.
The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has a strong record of curtailing the impact of loan delinquencies on banks when home prices unexpectedly drop, creating capital buffers and promptly implementing international standards. However, it is more challenging for the HKMA to maintain independent and prudent oversight of banks' China expansion as it relies on coordination with the authorities on the mainland to ensure banks' activities there are well-managed and well-capitalised. The HKMA has refrained from setting limits or additional buffers explicitly for China-related risks and we do not expect it to change its stance in the near term.
Fitch's assessment of an operating environment takes into account the sovereign rating, the economic environment, how developed the financial market is, and the regulatory and legal framework. An operating environment of 'a' means that we would typically not rate a bank's intrinsic strength, as expressed by our Viability Rating, above 'a+', but we could assign an Issuer Default Rating higher than 'A+' based on parent support.
We took our revised view of the operating environment into account in our recent peer review of Hong Kong banks (see Fitch Upgrades Wing Hang Bank to 'AA-', Affirms Hong Kong Banks, published on 8 May 2018).