多倫多生活討論區30
我不是唐紫睿
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我四十幾年前做嗰間會計師樓有一班猶佬大developer客。依家都上咗市。多倫多， Richmond Hill 同Markham都有好多commercial and residential project.所以我曾經係地產accounting既specialist.
(自爆ip系列)樓主我到了
等埋我
我都到左
你老婆搵咗未？
係咪黎緊？
我已經會合左另一個巴打
我已經會合左另一個巴打
我5點半先收工喺church street等
喺church street等未，要照顧小朋友
暗中觀察各位巴打
兩條都係南北線
多唔多人特別打扮？
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/home-price-plunge-recession-david-rosenberg
David Rosenberg: Canada's housing bubble has burst — now brace yourself for the economic hit
The upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting
Author of the article
avid Rosenberg
Publishing date
ct 28, 2022 • 3 days ago • 3 minute read • 149 Comments
Canadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg.
Canadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg.
Canada’s housing bubble has burst. The MLS house price index is now down nine per cent from last February’s peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, which we view as consistent with deteriorating affordability and the uber-aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.
We estimate the negative wealth effect associated with such a price slump will pull down gross domestic (GDP) growth by about 2.5 percentage points. Add to this the deleveraging effect of higher interest rates on consumption and investment, and the hit to trade from the expected downturn in the United States and global economy, and it’s not difficult to see why Canada’s upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting.
The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession
Individuals spend more when the value of their assets (for example, equities and houses) rises because they feel they are getting wealthier. This occurs through several channels: there is a behavioural aspect that translates into spending more of one’s earned disposable income, as well as an increase in credit access, a theme that has dominated in the face of persistently low borrowing costs over the past decade-plus. As homeowners continue to make regular payments on their mortgages, their credit scores improve, making them better candidates to pile on more debt.
But with the Bank of Canada’s overnight target rate having risen 350 basis points since March (with more to go), the theme of rising wealth is bound to fade as credit access dries up and real estate prices collapse. The MLS house price index is already down nine per cent from last February’s peak and the correction is far from over.
Households are being hit with a confluence of factors heading into this recession: rapid restrictions on credit access, higher debt-servicing costs on near-record-high household debt levels and inflation limiting disposable income. This is all being compounded by wealth depletion in both equity and residential markets, which also weigh on sentiment.
The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession and residential property prices fell by almost 30 per cent from their peak between 1989-1996.
David Rosenberg: Canada's housing bubble has burst — now brace yourself for the economic hit
The upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting
Author of the article
avid RosenbergPublishing date
ct 28, 2022 • 3 days ago • 3 minute read • 149 CommentsCanadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg.
Canadian home prices are now down nine per cent from their peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, says David Rosenberg.
Canada’s housing bubble has burst. The MLS house price index is now down nine per cent from last February’s peak en route to a 30 per cent or so decline, which we view as consistent with deteriorating affordability and the uber-aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada.
We estimate the negative wealth effect associated with such a price slump will pull down gross domestic (GDP) growth by about 2.5 percentage points. Add to this the deleveraging effect of higher interest rates on consumption and investment, and the hit to trade from the expected downturn in the United States and global economy, and it’s not difficult to see why Canada’s upcoming recession could be deeper than what Bay Street folks are expecting.
The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession
Individuals spend more when the value of their assets (for example, equities and houses) rises because they feel they are getting wealthier. This occurs through several channels: there is a behavioural aspect that translates into spending more of one’s earned disposable income, as well as an increase in credit access, a theme that has dominated in the face of persistently low borrowing costs over the past decade-plus. As homeowners continue to make regular payments on their mortgages, their credit scores improve, making them better candidates to pile on more debt.
But with the Bank of Canada’s overnight target rate having risen 350 basis points since March (with more to go), the theme of rising wealth is bound to fade as credit access dries up and real estate prices collapse. The MLS house price index is already down nine per cent from last February’s peak and the correction is far from over.
Households are being hit with a confluence of factors heading into this recession: rapid restrictions on credit access, higher debt-servicing costs on near-record-high household debt levels and inflation limiting disposable income. This is all being compounded by wealth depletion in both equity and residential markets, which also weigh on sentiment.
The last time all these factors were at play was the early 1990s, when Canada entered a Bank of Canada-induced recession and residential property prices fell by almost 30 per cent from their peak between 1989-1996.
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