哈佛任教 15 年的流行病學家： 我滴聖母呀，新冠狀病毒的 R0 值竟然是 3.8！

係

｛圖多bin c｝點解R0值咁高？病毒來源係野味？支那自己一早講咗
https://lih.kg/1842694
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全中

｛圖多bin c｝點解R0值咁高？病毒來源係野味？支那自己一早講咗
https://lih.kg/1842694
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黎d只係用官方數字計，已經嚇死外國專家，萬一真係好似流出醫護既講法，1傳14，RO可能係14，專家可能要往生啦

即係夏天就無咁活躍？咁夏天會潛伏住？

冚球剷

冇人話一日傳3.8
係總共傳3.8個人
你個計發係錯誤

r0 18

真係瘟疫公司

I am not sure if this is due to the "preprint" nature of paper, but a few points that look a bit suspicious:
1. The actual data set used to conduct the estimation was not disclosed in paper;
2. The research method for estimation was also not disclosed in paper
3. Reasoning for the employed assumptions and not others? Reasoning for the employed transmission model and not others? Apparently this should be part of research method elaboration yet there's none.
4. Do all med papers come in this short?? This paper is just too descriptive and only estimation results were presented.

I'd really wait for a full-fledged version, I am reluctant to call this research.

原文
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

其實我唔明
一個病人點解平均計陣係傳染3.8個人
唔會再further去傳染第5,6,7,8個

玩過biohazard基本都知

呢度巴打睇唔明架

｛圖多bin c｝點解R0值咁高？病毒來源係野味？支那自己一早講咗
https://lih.kg/1842694
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唔使找

可能係工人貪污賣去野味市場轉手

一月幾號 - 確診倍增
26 - 1975
23 - 881
21 - 446
19 - 220
18 - 124
17 - 65
而家有控制先至減慢到 每3日倍增！
預測確診：
29/1 - 3950
1/2 - 7900
4/2 - 15800
5.1% 偵測到即係 2月4日有 31萬人中招

睇真實數字
而家有控制先至增加到 每3日倍增！
一月幾號 - 確診倍增
26 - 1975
23 - 881
21 - 446
19 - 220
18 - 124
17 - 65

預測確診：
29/1 - 3950
1/2 - 7900
4/2 - 15800
5.1% 偵測到即係 2月4日有 31萬人中招

以上係 doubling time
唔係 R0
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fz7EwlAJjrZs708YGPym1Xj_3PmysukL/view

we estimate a doubling time of 2.3.

In SARS, doubling times varied from 4.6 days to 14.2 days depending on setting