小米集團IPO－粗淺分析
難為牛熊定分界
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Yes 佢自己都講個d hardware 係鋪排 佢標榜自己係internet company 當然可唔信可就另一回事啦
最大的考慮都係佢個系統到底可唔可以獨立生存
I have a big question actually, concerning valuation. my rationale is to find undervalued stocks instead of high growth stocks. So from this perspective, I believe using a comparative method would be better then using discount CFs. Because (1) no valuation model is accurate and no one can get the “true” discount rate or the “true” growth rate for discounting CFs, while for P/E , P/B and some other comparative methods, it’s just comparing across firms and within the firm’s own history, so less “future” is to be gauged; (2) a discount CF model requires too much probing into the future, says how the future CFs will change according to the business cycle or something like a regime shift, while P/E and P/B comparison allows us to gauge how a firm is valued less than another similar firm *at the present* not in the future.
And since no model is indeed true and accurate, we pick the simplest reasonable model, according to a scientific term something like Ozzie Razzor, so in my opinion, a comparative approach is better.
What do you think of the above?
And since no model is indeed true and accurate, we pick the simplest reasonable model, according to a scientific term something like Ozzie Razzor, so in my opinion, a comparative approach is better.
What do you think of the above?
And I can’t do other complexity modelling for the valuation because of my limited knowledge.
很批判性的文章
佢唔講都係留意原來係淨負債
佢唔講都係留意原來係淨負債
there is no right and wrong.
if your own valuation is x, and their IPO price is 2x, that's ok nth wrong. again looking at china literature, it is still above IPO but so much lower tha first day closing price. did they price it wrong?
the last thing I want to do is dcf. doing Dcf on Tencent is a waste of time, it is growing at 60% pa...how to do dcf? yea that's the CFA for u.
however, investor buys Tencent is not because of.next year earnings or pe, but about a year or 2 or 3 or 4 years after. hence, we r talking about peg, investopedia time
china internet stocks r a different beast, how many can deliver.60% growth every year for the past....10 years may be?.which such a track record of coz investor would buy that.
so, aside from the lottery selling on day 1 and make some quick money, how do u decide do u want to go into it for the longer term?
seller obviously wanna max the selling price, we know. but retail dont think about, unless it is too small that it is easily absorb, it is actually up to institutional who determine the price...a position can take a whole week if not longer to trade. so we need to do the homework. so, the question is, with all u know, how much r u willing to pay for this stock?? not just for the IPO but if u need to hold it for a while, how much would u pay for it??
u dont need to answer here, what matters is your thought process....that's what we teach the grad anyway
if your own valuation is x, and their IPO price is 2x, that's ok nth wrong. again looking at china literature, it is still above IPO but so much lower tha first day closing price. did they price it wrong?
the last thing I want to do is dcf. doing Dcf on Tencent is a waste of time, it is growing at 60% pa...how to do dcf? yea that's the CFA for u.
however, investor buys Tencent is not because of.next year earnings or pe, but about a year or 2 or 3 or 4 years after. hence, we r talking about peg, investopedia time
china internet stocks r a different beast, how many can deliver.60% growth every year for the past....10 years may be?.which such a track record of coz investor would buy that.
so, aside from the lottery selling on day 1 and make some quick money, how do u decide do u want to go into it for the longer term?
seller obviously wanna max the selling price, we know. but retail dont think about, unless it is too small that it is easily absorb, it is actually up to institutional who determine the price...a position can take a whole week if not longer to trade. so we need to do the homework. so, the question is, with all u know, how much r u willing to pay for this stock?? not just for the IPO but if u need to hold it for a while, how much would u pay for it??
u dont need to answer here, what matters is your thought process....that's what we teach the grad anyway
You have very helpful insight
支持巴打
想問會唔會做零售股既分析，隻321好似派息幾高
想問會唔會做零售股既分析，隻321好似派息幾高
黎緊兩個月得閒好多 會寫密啲
有得抽未????
未
I rewrite the piece on 1848.
中國飛機租賃（01848.HK）－粗淺分析
https://lihkg.com/thread/673550/page/1?ref=web
- 分享自 LIHKG 討論區
My argument is that:
Air leasing is growing in the medium-long run, and in the short run, both 1848 and 2588 reported rising profits at a very rapid growth, but still, price is sluggish. So, i believe the market fails to fully appreciate the industry, especially for the two listed in HKEX, i.e. 1848, 2588.
between the two, i prefer 1848 because the investor's returns are higher, despite the high leverage. Still, I think the high leverage or high debts are manageable. And since i don't think the management of 1848 is all idiot that they would allow the firm to be in a position so susceptible to the interest rate movement, i believe they will find a way to change the debt structure. In the short-run, most of the debt instrument still has a rather long period to maturity, so the impact of interest rate movement should be acceptable. In the long-run, the funding liquidity risk of 1848 can be well managed if they managed to make good use of securitisation.
中國飛機租賃（01848.HK）－粗淺分析
https://lihkg.com/thread/673550/page/1?ref=web
- 分享自 LIHKG 討論區
My argument is that:
Air leasing is growing in the medium-long run, and in the short run, both 1848 and 2588 reported rising profits at a very rapid growth, but still, price is sluggish. So, i believe the market fails to fully appreciate the industry, especially for the two listed in HKEX, i.e. 1848, 2588.
between the two, i prefer 1848 because the investor's returns are higher, despite the high leverage. Still, I think the high leverage or high debts are manageable. And since i don't think the management of 1848 is all idiot that they would allow the firm to be in a position so susceptible to the interest rate movement, i believe they will find a way to change the debt structure. In the short-run, most of the debt instrument still has a rather long period to maturity, so the impact of interest rate movement should be acceptable. In the long-run, the funding liquidity risk of 1848 can be well managed if they managed to make good use of securitisation.
睇完依篇嘢 分析無問題但需要中兩個前設
1. 小米靠賣平嘢
你用蘋果同佢比係無得比
但如果你用淘寶貨或者其他大陸牌子去比
小米絕對唔係賣平嘢 亦已經喺好多國內商場開咗體驗店
同Apple Store一樣係每個商場入面人流最多嘅鋪之一
喺市民眼中已經係一個國內名牌 就當佢手機打唔到入Top 30%人口市場 其他嘢其實真係同其他名牌分庭抗禮
至於手機睇埋下個前設
2. 小米靠賣手機
其實而家小米已經無再將主力放喺賣手機
大家都知手機已經去到飽和點
一兩年前小米已經將重心發展去智能家居 (同好多外國牌子一樣)
而智能家居嘅重點係要用同一牌子先可以完全感受到優勢 而封閉嘅大陸 甚至台灣人都已經開始吹奏緊小米
小米嘅掃地機械人甚至係贏晒好多貴幾倍嘅牌子
所以手機市場根本唔係佢未來主打
1. 小米靠賣平嘢
你用蘋果同佢比係無得比
但如果你用淘寶貨或者其他大陸牌子去比
小米絕對唔係賣平嘢 亦已經喺好多國內商場開咗體驗店
同Apple Store一樣係每個商場入面人流最多嘅鋪之一
喺市民眼中已經係一個國內名牌 就當佢手機打唔到入Top 30%人口市場 其他嘢其實真係同其他名牌分庭抗禮
至於手機睇埋下個前設
2. 小米靠賣手機
其實而家小米已經無再將主力放喺賣手機
大家都知手機已經去到飽和點
一兩年前小米已經將重心發展去智能家居 (同好多外國牌子一樣)
而智能家居嘅重點係要用同一牌子先可以完全感受到優勢 而封閉嘅大陸 甚至台灣人都已經開始吹奏緊小米
小米嘅掃地機械人甚至係贏晒好多貴幾倍嘅牌子
所以手機市場根本唔係佢未來主打