「日本7月5日大地震預言」是真是假，倒數16天就能見真章。許多人都提早準備好防災包以備不時之需，日本地震的相關討論也有所增加。關於日本政府在年初中旬公布，南海區域在未來30年內發生大地震的機率上升至80%，究竟這個數字是怎麼來的？為什麼會提高？中央氣象署進行說明，並指「不是毫無根據的臆測」。
氣象署在臉書粉專「報地震 - 中央氣象署」說明地震週期與地震機率，指時間週期是分析當地的古地震紀錄推算而來的。研究人員會根據歷史上中大型地震的發生間隔，估算出該地區的地震週期，進一步計算出未來特定期間內發生地震的機率。除了歷史紀錄研究，科學家還會結合斷層活動、地質調查，以及古地震留下的證據，再透過統計模型計算未來一定時間發生地震的機率。因此，這些機率是根據大量研究與數據分析得出的結果，不是毫無根據的臆測。
氣象署以南海海槽大地震週期為例貼出一圖，說明圖中下半部就是日本計算出南海海槽發生大地震的機率。可以看到距離上次地震的時間越久，發生大地震的機率就會越接近99.99%（不會到100%）。像是圖中的2013 年（橘黃線）的地震機率約在70%，但到了2025年（綠線）已到達80%。
至於該怎麼看待地震週期？氣象署表示，地震週期只是分析地震發生可能有規律的切入點之一，不代表大地震會在預估的當年發生。地震機率也只是個預估值，提供我們作為防災政策的科學參考依據。最後也提醒民眾，面對大地震不需過度緊張，我們不能阻止地震發生，但是可以積極做好防災準備，像是固定家具、建物抗震的檢查、演練地震避難等等，守護自己與家人的平安。
www.setn.com/m/news.aspx?newsid=1674688
日本南海海槽大地震「機率增至80％」 中央氣象署：並非亳無根據
高庭公爵
15 回覆
2 Like
5 Dislike
由頭到尾都係台灣人㞗吹，香港傳媒食佢啲新聞二手飯
連登呢到話無事的
人棄我取
馬上book ANA出發吃喝玩樂
該死唔駛病
人棄我取
馬上book ANA出發吃喝玩樂
該死唔駛病
其實咁諗先正路
越多人買今年會震，個莊一定唔會開今年
好似賭錢炒股票咁 多人買一定輸
個個買大仲開大比你，個莊咪食屎
越多人買今年會震，個莊一定唔會開今年
好似賭錢炒股票咁 多人買一定輸
個個買大仲開大比你，個莊咪食屎
關於日本政府在年初中旬公布，南海區域在未來30年內發生大地震的機率上升至80%
咁危險既地方唔好去啦
去歐洲算
去歐洲算
唔係話信今年會震定係唔震
不過你用個咁嘅比喻真心弱撚智
賭少啲波，讀多啲書啦
不過你用個咁嘅比喻真心弱撚智
賭少啲波，讀多啲書啦
係咪可以理解成 日本人日日都面對80 定20 會震 
但日日中20 大過80
但日日中20 大過80
哩個理論真係無撚讀個書嘅爛賭閪先講得出
即係等多10年就90%，20年後先大地震
30年內驚咪30年唔好去囉
驚咪30年唔好去囉當去一個trip 9日，請5日假連埋前後星期六日咁去
去緊途中預到南海海糟地震嘅機會率應該＝80%*9/(365*30）=0.065%
擔心嘅，衡量下呢個機率大唔大
去緊途中預到南海海糟地震嘅機會率應該＝80%*9/(365*30）=0.065%
擔心嘅，衡量下呢個機率大唔大
on99
南海震唔震有乜所謂
最緊要中個預言香港中海嘯,先高興
最緊要中個預言香港中海嘯,先高興
0.007%
If there is 80% chance having earthquake in next 30 years, what is the probability there is earthquake tomorrow?
> That's a great question—it really gets into the difference between long-term probabilities and short-term risk.
An 80% chance of an earthquake happening in the next 30 years means that over that span, there's a high likelihood one will occur. But that doesn't mean we can easily calculate the probability of an earthquake on any specific day like tomorrow. Earthquakes are rare but sudden, and they don't happen at regular intervals, so we can’t just divide evenly across the 30 years.
However, if we made a super rough estimate assuming the earthquake could occur randomly on any day within those 30 years, that’s:
1 - (chance of no quake per day over 30 years) = daily probability
That works out to approximately:
$$
\text{Daily probability} \approx 1 - (1 - 0.8)^{1/10950} \approx 0.000077 \text{ or } 0.0077\%
$$
So less than one hundredth of a percent per day—a tiny number. But again, that's a simplistic mathematical guess that doesn't reflect the geological reality. Earthquake forecasts depend heavily on seismic stress, fault lines, and other geophysical data.
Want to look into how your region prepares for quake risk or how early warning systems work? Could be a fascinating rabbit hole.
If there is 80% chance having earthquake in next 30 years, what is the probability there is earthquake tomorrow?
> That's a great question—it really gets into the difference between long-term probabilities and short-term risk.
An 80% chance of an earthquake happening in the next 30 years means that over that span, there's a high likelihood one will occur. But that doesn't mean we can easily calculate the probability of an earthquake on any specific day like tomorrow. Earthquakes are rare but sudden, and they don't happen at regular intervals, so we can’t just divide evenly across the 30 years.
However, if we made a super rough estimate assuming the earthquake could occur randomly on any day within those 30 years, that’s:
1 - (chance of no quake per day over 30 years) = daily probability
That works out to approximately:
$$
\text{Daily probability} \approx 1 - (1 - 0.8)^{1/10950} \approx 0.000077 \text{ or } 0.0077\%
$$
So less than one hundredth of a percent per day—a tiny number. But again, that's a simplistic mathematical guess that doesn't reflect the geological reality. Earthquake forecasts depend heavily on seismic stress, fault lines, and other geophysical data.
Want to look into how your region prepares for quake risk or how early warning systems work? Could be a fascinating rabbit hole.