美股認真討論區MMMMCMLXXXII

all sell off, china and all country de- dxy, de- us Treasury and all

已經無咩討論空間
債息失控，向上飛就要fed QE頂
trump唔出招安撫返個market就等收皮

人在香港既可以考慮借錢放銀行
博佢地唔“準”call loan
有錢買資產+通脹升值

呢啲呢幾年拜登已經做緊

如果要de,今輪嘅行情係最合理

treasury, stonks, currency, paper gold, commodity future (oil)

all leverage “pseudo“ asset

only gold and silver, and SB is real asset

我講咗啲咩你自己理解下

T車轉燈

美國總統特朗普
回應中國加徵關稅
稱是個好機會
讓企業搬到美國

啲錢返去美國公司！ 升！！！

physical gold and physical silver

人類史上最去撚架嘅兩種期貨就係

gold and silver !!!!!!

我講撚咗啲咩你哋自己理解下

港樓同深圳樓應該趨向無溢價

冚球鏟

有乜資產諗得過？

跌唔落

ccp and HKSAR only one method
1997, 2015, everytime

夾隔夜息, HIBOR

傻侵仲話想上總統山，維尼都揪唔贏

個個都賣，得返邊個買，國債呢啲咁大型嘅嘢國家級拋售都要人接貨先得

上完下屆拆返

點夠996食樹皮鬥
0關稅咪算
啲下欄野係要判出去
點會搵美國佬自己做

經新加坡 走私返中國

Hyperinflation from tariffs alone seems unlikely to hit Cagan’s 50%-per-month mark. Tariffs increase prices, but historical data—like the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war—suggest a modest inflationary bump (0.3% over two years). Even with broader tariffs now, estimates suggest a 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point rise in U.S. inflation annually, far from hyperinflationary levels. For China to trigger something closer to hyperinflation via Treasuries, it’d need to dump its holdings en masse, and even then, the Federal Reserve could counter by adjusting its balance sheet or rates. Plus, China’s own economy would suffer—its remaining bonds would lose value, and its export-driven model relies on stable U.S. demand.

On the flip side, if hyperinflation did hit (say, from a massive money supply surge unrelated to tariffs), Treasury bondholders—China included—would see their investments gutted in real terms. Debtors, including the U.S. government, would benefit as the real debt burden shrinks, but the broader economic fallout (e.g., savings wiped out, currency collapse) would dwarf any tariff-related tensions. China might hesitate to escalate via bond sales, knowing it’d be a mutually assured economic hit.
In short, while tariffs on China and its Treasury holdings can stoke inflation and rattle bond markets, they’re unlikely to spark Cagan-style hyperinflation on their own. The real value of Treasuries would take a hit in such an extreme scenario, but the U.S.-China economic entanglement suggests both sides have incentives to avoid pushing it that far.

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