https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/chance-of-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-smashing-into-earth-rises-yet-again-to-3-1-percent-nasa-reports
NASA has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, up from 1 in 42 as reported in previous calculations.
NASA: 小行星「2024 YR4」2032年撞擊地球機率提升至 3.1% !
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The probability that a major asteroid, big enough to wipe out an entire city, will hit Earth in 2032 has just increased to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, according to NASA.
On Feb. 7, NASA increased the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in seven years time from 1.2% to 2.3%. The odds of impact then climbed to 2.6%, and are now at 3.1%, according to the latest data on NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies website.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of around 177 feet (54 meters), or about as wide as the leaning tower of Pisa is tall. But while it is too small to end human civilization, the asteroid could still wipe out a major city, releasing about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
The good news is that there's still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely, and as researchers learn more about its trajectory, the odds of a strike are likely to decrease to 0%, based on its current risk level in the NASA data. There's also a tiny 0.3% chance that YR4 will hit the moon instead of Earth, Live Science previously reported.
Scientists use a measurement called the Torino Scale to categorize the risk posed by nearby asteroids and comets. With a Torino Scale rating of 3 out of 10, YR4 is capable of localized destruction and passes the 1% impact probability threshold (meaning the risk of a potential impact is estimated to be greater than 1%).
Additional observations will give scientists a more precise estimate of the asteroid's orbit, which usually means they'll be more confident it won't hit Earth. Many other objects on NASA's asteroid risk list have ended up with an impact probability of 0% after more data became available.
On Feb. 7, NASA increased the likelihood that asteroid 2024 YR4 will hit Earth in seven years time from 1.2% to 2.3%. The odds of impact then climbed to 2.6%, and are now at 3.1%, according to the latest data on NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies website.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an estimated diameter of around 177 feet (54 meters), or about as wide as the leaning tower of Pisa is tall. But while it is too small to end human civilization, the asteroid could still wipe out a major city, releasing about 8 megatons of energy upon impact — more than 500 times the energy released by the atomic bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, Japan.
The good news is that there's still a 96.9% chance that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely, and as researchers learn more about its trajectory, the odds of a strike are likely to decrease to 0%, based on its current risk level in the NASA data. There's also a tiny 0.3% chance that YR4 will hit the moon instead of Earth, Live Science previously reported.
Scientists use a measurement called the Torino Scale to categorize the risk posed by nearby asteroids and comets. With a Torino Scale rating of 3 out of 10, YR4 is capable of localized destruction and passes the 1% impact probability threshold (meaning the risk of a potential impact is estimated to be greater than 1%).
Additional observations will give scientists a more precise estimate of the asteroid's orbit, which usually means they'll be more confident it won't hit Earth. Many other objects on NASA's asteroid risk list have ended up with an impact probability of 0% after more data became available.
得3%驚閪
係咪要開始train定班鑽油工人做太空人
yr 4 係咪出年畢業
500次日本核爆咁勁
每日多1% 
聽日3%落雨當然驚西
3% 摧毀一個城市其實好嚴重
如果個度有核電廠，成個國家唔使再住人
3% 摧毀一個城市其實好嚴重
如果個度有核電廠，成個國家唔使再住人
唔驚啦 2026都上火星
射落海個海潚會有幾高
1星期升1%，兩年後就會話中鳩梗？
一個城市咋喎，唔係一個地球
預早撒離一個城市有幾難？
預早撒離一個城市有幾難？
前排1.33%跟著尋日bbc出新聞話2%而家就3%
Ben Affleck 問點解唔調番轉
然後Michael Bay話shut the fuck up
然後Michael Bay話shut the fuck up
2030年先出post la
核電廠點算？
要好多時間準備
要好多時間準備
講緊至少一個香港咁嘅大城市
要撤離晒係好難
仲有撤離嘅混亂同心理情緒負擔本身就會引發好多問題同死亡
仲有安置同生計問題
仲有成個城市收晒皮所有嘢消失晒
仲有唔係咁易/咁早可以計到中邊個城市
咁都唔嚴重？
要撤離晒係好難
仲有撤離嘅混亂同心理情緒負擔本身就會引發好多問題同死亡
仲有安置同生計問題
仲有成個城市收晒皮所有嘢消失晒
仲有唔係咁易/咁早可以計到中邊個城市
咁都唔嚴重？
計地球表面面積，好難跌入城市
而家計唔到, 但應該比較接近果時就可以粗略估計到
應該有一星期以上左右既時間去準備
不過當然入大氣層之前既軌道都可以改變
應該有一星期以上左右既時間去準備
不過當然入大氣層之前既軌道都可以改變
3%係唔低
高過圍骰或者兩粒骰出6
仲要係一樣後果可以好嚴重嘅事情
搵個人矇住眼鳩開槍嘅命中率，隔咗30米可能都冇3%
你夠唔夠膽一句驚閪就企喺30米畀佢射你？
高過圍骰或者兩粒骰出6
仲要係一樣後果可以好嚴重嘅事情
搵個人矇住眼鳩開槍嘅命中率，隔咗30米可能都冇3%
你夠唔夠膽一句驚閪就企喺30米畀佢射你？
如果以嚴重程度計算，0.01%都嫌多
同我地失業率一樣3.1%