https://www.livescience.com/space/asteroids/chance-of-city-killer-asteroid-2024-yr4-smashing-into-earth-rises-yet-again-to-3-1-percent-nasa-reports
NASA has increased the chances of asteroid 2024 YR4 hitting Earth in 2032 to 1 in 32, or 3.1%, up from 1 in 42 as reported in previous calculations.