https://electrek.co/2025/02/10/elon-musk-masterful-move-goalpost-tesla-full-self-driving/
"I asked Grok, Musk’s “truth-seeking AI”, to list all of the CEO’s timelines for Tesla achieving self-driving and then compared them to reality:
2015: Predicted full autonomy by 2018.
Reality: Not achieved; Tesla cars still required human supervision.
2016: Claimed full autonomy from LA to New York by 2017, all Teslas as robotaxis by 2020.
Reality: Did not happen; FSD remained in development.
2018: Full self-driving capability in “3 to 6 months”.
Reality: Missed, FSD still required human supervision.
2019: Early access FSD by year-end, full unsupervised driving in 2020.
Reality: Limited beta release in 2020, but not unsupervised.
2020: Very close to Level 5, quantum leap in FSD.
Reality: FSD Beta launched, but still Level 2 with human oversight.
2021: Full self-driving, 1 million robo-taxis by year-end.
Reality: Neither achieved; FSD remained in beta.
2022: Full self-driving by end of 2022 or May 2023.
Reality: Did not reach this milestone; FSD still not fully autonomous.
2023: Reiterated confidence in achieving full self-driving.
Reality: No full autonomy achieved; continued FSD improvements but still supervised.
2024: Announced unsupervised FSD in Texas and California for Q2 2025.
Reality: As of early 2025, this has not yet been launched.
2025: Specified launch of unsupervised FSD in Texas for June 2025.
Reality: As of now, this has not been confirmed to have occurred; the timeline is still within the projected future, so no definitive comparison to reality can be made yet."
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