P.Plate
2024-11-05 23:48:28
Sure, let's dive into the probabilities for both scenarios:
### 1. Selecting 100,000 Numbers
In this scenario, you pick 100,000 distinct numbers from a range of 1 to 1,000,000. The probability of guessing the correct number is the ratio of the number of selected numbers to the total number of possibilities. Hence, the probability is:
\[ P_1 = \frac{100,000}{1,000,000} = 0.1 \]
So, the probability of winning by selecting 100,000 numbers is **0.1**, or **10%**.
### 2. Selecting 1 Number but Rolling 100,000 Times
In this scenario, you pick a single number and try to match it with the correct number by rolling 100,000 times. The probability of not guessing the correct number in a single roll is:
\[ P_{\text{fail}} = \frac{999,999}{1,000,000} \]
The probability of failing every single one of the 100,000 times is:
\[ P_{\text{fail all}} = \left( \frac{999,999}{1,000,000} \right)^{100,000} \]
Therefore, the probability of winning at least once is:
\[ P_2 = 1 - P_{\text{fail all}} = 1 - \left( \frac{999,999}{1,000,000} \right)^{100,000} \]
Let’s compute this:
\[ P_2 = 1 - \left(0.999999\right)^{100,000} \]
Using approximation for \(e^{-x}\), where \(x\) is very small:
\[ P_2 \approx 1 - e^{-0.1} \approx 1 - 0.9048 = 0.0952 \]
So, the probability of winning by rolling 100,000 times is approximately **0.0952**, or **9.52%**.
### Summary
- **Probability of winning by selecting 100,000 numbers**: 10%
- **Probability of winning by rolling 100,000 times**: 9.52%
Interestingly, choosing 100,000 numbers offers a slightly higher probability of winning compared to rolling 100,000 times with a single number.
Which strategy would you prefer?
copilot 答案