Jefferies says they are bringing down their AVGO #s into 1H’25 while keeping ‘26 and beyond the same as commentary suggests more seasonality than is currently modeled by the street and calls out the headwinds: 1) Temporary ASIC slowdown: Current lull in TPU v5 production. TPU v6 production expected to begin ramping April/May. Timing slightly later than market expectations, though not technically delayed 2) Expected seasonal softness in non-AI product lines 3) Production volume reductions anticipated and risk of losing iPhone WiFi chip socket ($4-5 per unit impact)
Separately on AVGO this morning: AVGO: VMware customers report massive price increases since Broadcom takeover: 'Feels quite a bit like being held for ransom' – Business Insider
On MRVL, Jefferies calls out the approaching inflection point in MRVL’s ASIC ramp. They see “a stronger ramp of the Trainium 2 chip to as high as 250k in April 25 with Inferentia 2.5 adding another 1M units in 2025.” This points MRVL’s AI ASIC revenue to be in the $2.5-3B range for CY25 with optical adding another $1.5-2B which all in is $4-5B range for AI vs the >$2.5B guide.