At least 48 million homes in China have been sold before construction has been completed, suggesting the country’s property crisis won’t be resolved anytime soon, according to a report from Bloomberg Intelligence.
根據彭博行業研究報告顯示，全國至少有4800萬套房屋在竣工前已出售，這意味住房地產困境不會很快得到解決。
The figure, based on pre-sales data from 2015 through the first half of this year, is bigger than Germany’s total housing stock in 2021. It presents a direct threat to developers’ revenue because people could start avoiding pre-sales of new developments and instead buy completed or second-hand housing, analysts Kristy Hung and Monica Si wrote.
該數字基於2015年至今年上半年的預售數據，比德國2021年的房屋總量還要多，對開發商收入構成了直接威脅，因為人們可能會開始避開新開發項目的預售，轉而購買現樓或二手樓。
China’s property sector is facing multiple headwinds. Developers are suffering from liquidity shortage, despite the country’s rescue package that included a 300 billion yuan ($42 billion) relending program. New home residential sales slumped further in July by 19.7%.
房地產行業面臨多重阻力。儘管推出了3000億元人民幣再貸款等救助計劃，但開發商仍面臨流動性短缺的問題。7月新樓銷售額進一步下滑19.7%。
Adding to the challenges, the country’s aging demographic means a shortage of construction workers. Migrant labour’s average age rose to 43 in 2023 from 38 in 2014, with those above 50 jumping to 31% from 17%.
雪上加霜的是，該國人口老齡化意味著建築工人短缺。農民工平均年齡從2014年的38歲上升至2023年的43歲，其中50歲以上的比例從17%躍升至31%。
Younger workers below 30 have declined to 17% from 34%, partly due to the pay that’s less than the country’s average wage. There’s a correlation between annual home completions and the number of construction workers, which hit its peak of 61 million in 2014 and has declined by 25% since, according to the Bloomberg Intelligence report.
30 歲以下年輕工人比例從34%下降到17%，因為工資低於全國平均工資。根據彭博報告，每年的房屋竣工數量與建築工人數量之間存在相關性，2014 年建築工人數量達到 6100 萬人的峰值，此後下降了 25%。
Home completion was short by 8.4 billion square meters (90 billion square feet) for sales made from 2000 through the first half of this year, about 38% of the cumulative total, the analysts said. The non-completion ratio soared from an average of 17% of annual sales before 2015 to 47% in 2015-23.
分析師表示，從2000年到今年上半年，房屋未竣工面積84億平方米，約佔累計總量的38%。未竣工率從2015年前年平均 17% 飆升至 2015-23 年的 47%。
China is seeing a fundamental shift in buyer preference, with existing-home sales overtaking new homes by area for the first time ever last year. Completed homes accounted for 27% of new sales in the first half, compared with 10% for all of 2021, according to the report.
中國的買家偏好正在發生根本性轉變，去年現樓銷售面積首次超過新樓銷售面積。報告顯示，上半年竣工房屋佔新房銷售的27%，而2021年全年為10%。
