Bitcoin/Crypto 集中討論區 (509) Bitcoin 不可能破的69K歷史大頂

SAND其實做咩 睇左佢兩日 跌都唔跌下
FORBES 單野炒到咁耐?

沽緊

講定義都冇乜用，因為binance同coinbase都好「守規矩」
果陣乜法都未立，剩係個口提下，binance已經主動停左香港用戶既衍生品服務，英國果邊又係
coinbase又係，我去個日本旅行，係日本登入，佢第二日已經話要ban我account
基本上呢啲「守規矩」既交易所，當地政府講明唔俾佢做生意，佢就會乖乖聽話架啦
調返轉講，如果在港營運係指公司location既，咁咪所有交易平台全部locate係外國，已經唔洗理港共講任何野啦仲洗乜申牌
以我理解就係只要你香港人身份kyc既，都應該會通知你叫你期限前走人之類

62K開始失守

BTC同equity有關聯但好似唔大？

4 years cycle本身都冇include macro 點樣忽略法？同埋冇人可以肯定4 year cycle 係主流narrative？

如果短期內 break and retest 64-69K 呢個 multi year resistance，極有可能會急速拉升至 120K
但係呢個情況嘅前提係有新嘅市場資訊 (唔係 halving) 令投資者覺得喺 64K 買入並持有 BTC 係合理決定
事實上你睇 Spot BTC 的成交量，可以推測大部份 Smart money 已經在 48-64K 拋售 15-25K 買入的 BTC，投資者似乎認為 48-64K 係合理區間

邊單？

點睇得出smart money 拋售

Miner outflows are at peak
Decreasing volume on Bitstamp and Bitfinex BTCUSD pairs since the bear market low
It simply doesn't make sense for the BTCUSD volume to remain that low IF smart money is expecting a further big move to the upside
ETF rally has happened 38k→64k

屌 啱啱先轉左D USDC過去coinbase諗住食下5.1息

Simply put, while new money has been flooding in since the most recent 38k (BTC) low, the biggest buyers around the last (BTC) cycle low (15-25k) have been selling all the way up. Its irrational to assume that the new money will continue at the same pace indefinitely once the novelty has faded.

Any new well structured investment product will generally have an rally at the beginning of its inception, however this has little bearing on long-term performance. This 'novelty effect' seems to be the most simple explanation for the inflow of volume but has been largely ignored in favor of more esoteric explanations, such as BTC becoming a global reserve currency, and other theses that have been invalidated countless times.

「守規矩」ge前題係仲可以做到香港人生意 有錢搵
完全唔俾做生意就唔同講法
我諗唔到點解外國公司要俾面香港證監

其實我都認同佢哋有一定機會會走人唔做香港人生意
我只不過係想講根據字面 Binance/Coinbase唔屬於"在香港營運"ge規管範圍

我好奇既係，究竟係兩間都冇入紙申請，定係港共reject左
coinbase我唔熟，但binance照計只要有得係當地合法營運，就算刪左刪右都會整個.uk .us呢啲地區版出來，冇理由唔玩.hk

係無申請

的確有交易平台唔係locate係外國wo
locate係香港ge一堆啦

See? No one is buying more at these prices.

準備to the moon

let the mkt prove me wrong

有啲野係形象問題既
A地方政府唔俾佢做A市民生意／唔俾A市民用佢既平台，然後佢又無視警告，照樣要做生意，咁一來佢國際上既形象就係「唔守規矩」，二來佢係A地方都算係犯法。睇返過往，仲未有一單case係地方政府開聲叫停binance/coinbase，然後佢地係無視。

網絡服務既野，在XX營運，都唔會係睇公司location啦嘛，就算拗，俾盡都會係睇用者IP location，咁邏輯就來，唔俾在香港營運，咁一個人用香港人身分來做KYC，仲點服務佢

或者咁講啦，搞咁大場龍鳯，要申牌先可以「在港營運」，如果原來只係講緊容許公司location在香港。只要間公司係外國，就可以繼續服務香港人，咁搞來做乜，有邊間global exchange唔係本身就咁，堆交易平台又入紙來為乜

嘩！Pepe

Pepe 係想點