美股認真討論區 MMMCCCXXXIX
尾田麻里
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希望開市有位走put
豬死了
Fitch Ratings KEY RATING DRIVERS
Fitch forecasts economy to Slip into Recession: Tighter credit conditions, weakening business investment, and a slowdown in consumption will push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in 4Q23 and 1Q24, according to Fitch projections. The agency sees U.S. annual real GDP growth slowing to 1.2% this year from 2.1% in 2022 and overall growth of just 0.5% in 2024. Job vacancies remain higher and the labor participation rate is still lower (by 1 pp) than pre-pandemic levels, which could negatively affect medium-term potential growth.
Fed Tightening: The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, May and July 2023. Fitch expects one further hike to 5.5% to 5.75% by September. The resilience of the economy and the labor market are complicating the Fed's goal of bringing inflation towards its 2% target. While headline inflation fell to 3% in June, core PCE inflation, the Fed's key price index, remained stubbornly high at 4.1% yoy. This will likely preclude cuts in the Federal Funds Rate until March 2024. Additionally, the Fed is continuing to reduce its holdings of mortgage backed-securities and U.S. Treasuries, which is further tightening financial conditions. Since January, these assets on the Fed balance sheet have fallen by over USD500 billion as of end-July 2023.
Fitch forecasts economy to Slip into Recession: Tighter credit conditions, weakening business investment, and a slowdown in consumption will push the U.S. economy into a mild recession in 4Q23 and 1Q24, according to Fitch projections. The agency sees U.S. annual real GDP growth slowing to 1.2% this year from 2.1% in 2022 and overall growth of just 0.5% in 2024. Job vacancies remain higher and the labor participation rate is still lower (by 1 pp) than pre-pandemic levels, which could negatively affect medium-term potential growth.
Fed Tightening: The Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, May and July 2023. Fitch expects one further hike to 5.5% to 5.75% by September. The resilience of the economy and the labor market are complicating the Fed's goal of bringing inflation towards its 2% target. While headline inflation fell to 3% in June, core PCE inflation, the Fed's key price index, remained stubbornly high at 4.1% yoy. This will likely preclude cuts in the Federal Funds Rate until March 2024. Additionally, the Fed is continuing to reduce its holdings of mortgage backed-securities and U.S. Treasuries, which is further tightening financial conditions. Since January, these assets on the Fed balance sheet have fallen by over USD500 billion as of end-July 2023.
幾多均價先
今晚
鄰國17年到宜家都無降過
收住息坐下啦
納dee準備升到轉燈
睇連登以為係真股災
反彈了
牛軍反攻
牛軍反攻
計fitch更加由07年之後無變過
99.9
美國佬訓醒落力掃，又搞掂
5.5 15.5% Chances from FED Watch
反彈了
交返個埸比熊軍
交返個埸比熊軍
7算ok, 賺返1000蚊
你又熊又牛
Kong girl 
收左中國佬錢原來
以前既世界真係好
邊有噤多野煩
on 99 返工, 草草下錢就買到樓, 然後一間就變三間
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頂佢個肺
邊有噤多野煩
on 99 返工, 草草下錢就買到樓, 然後一間就變三間
dllm 宜家, 唔撚去賭錢都冇第一間
頂佢個肺
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